2011 Rose Bowl: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa Seek Big Ten Bid

While it's likely that the Big Ten will send two teams to BCS bowl games, only one will earn the coveted trip to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl.  As the season winds down, there is a four-team race to decide who will represent the Big Ten on New Year's Day.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa are all very much in the hunt with one conference loss apiece.  Here is a look at possible scenarios for each of the teams involved:

Wisconsin

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LAS VEGAS - SEPTEMBER 04: A Wisconsin Badgers cheerleader runs a flag through the end zone after a Wisconsin touchdown against the UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium September 4, 2010 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Wisconsin won 41-21. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty

If Wisconsin is to win out, the Badgers can conceivably end up in a three-way tie with Michigan State and either Iowa or Ohio State (who play one another November 20). A three-way tie involving Wisconsin, Michigan State and Iowa would favor MSU.  Iowa would be eliminated from the race due to its lower overall win percentage, and MSU would own the tiebreaker over Wisconsin by virtue of its win over the Badgers.

A three-way tie between Wisconsin, MSU and OSU would likely earn Wisconsin the Rose Bowl bid, as the Badgers currently own the highest ranking of the three in the BCS.  However, there is the possibility that an OSU win over Iowa could propel the Buckeyes ahead of Wisconsin in the BCS standings, thus sending the Bucks to Pasadena.

If Wisconsin finds themselves in a two-way tie with Ohio State atop the Big Ten standings, though, it would own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buckeyes.  The Badgers would likewise own the tiebreaker over Iowa.  Having beaten both OSU and Iowa, a loss by Michigan State would guarantee Wisconsin a trip to Pasadena if the Badgers can manage to run the table.

Ohio State

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PASADENA, CA - JANUARY 01: Quarterback Terrelle Pryor #2 of the Ohio State Buckeyes celebrates after the buckeyes 26-17 win in the 96th Rose Bowl game over the Oregon Ducks on January 1, 2010 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

The Buckeyes' chances of reaching the Rose Bowl may be the most intriguing.  By winning out OSU would all but end Iowa’s hopes of playing in Pasadena.  If Ohio State were to wind up in a three-way tie with Michigan State and Wisconsin, it would be interesting to see if the Buckeyes could leapfrog Wisconsin in the BCS standings. The Badgers beat the Buckeyes soundly in Madison in front of a raucous Wisconsin crowd. Ohio State currently finds itself two spots behind Wisconsin in the standings. 

On November 20, OSU meets an Iowa team that narrowly lost to Wisconsin 31-30.  Wisconsin travels to Ann Arbor to play Michigan.  The following week the Wolverines travel to Columbus.  If OSU beats both Iowa and Michigan decisively and Wisconsin struggles against Michigan, would that be enough to push the Buckeyes ahead of the Badgers in the standings? 

If Michigan State were to lose one of its final two games, however, it would all be academic.  A two-way tie between Wisconsin and Ohio State would obviously end the Buckeyes’ Rose Bowl hopes.  If the Badgers win out, the Buckeyes would need the Spartans to do the same.  A Wisconsin loss and three Ohio State wins represent OSU’s most direct route to Pasadena.  Ohio State would merely need to maintain its advantage over Michigan State in the BCS rankings to earn the tiebreaker over the Spartans.

Michigan State

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EAST LANSING, MI - OCTOBER 9: Sparty, the Michigan State University Spartans mascot, carries the American Flag during the game against the University of Illinois Fighting Illini at Spartan Stadium on October 9, 2004 in East Lansing, Michigan. Michigan St

The scenario for the Spartans reaching the Rose Bowl is a little less convoluted. A three-way tie with Wisconsin and Ohio State would likely leave the Spartans on the outside looking in, as they find themselves behind both Wisconsin and OSU in the BCS standings. 

Furthermore, a two-way tie with OSU would also come down to the BCS standings for the tiebreaker, as the two will not have met this season. 

A two-way tie with Iowa would favor the Hawkeyes due to the Spartans’ loss in Iowa City.  Michigan State’s best hope for a Rose Bowl bid appears to be an Ohio State loss to Iowa.  This would set the stage for a three-way tie between Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin, which would send the Spartans to Pasadena. 

If Ohio State is to prevail in its game against Iowa, Michigan State would need the Buckeyes to lose one of their other two remaining games.  This would result in two losses apiece for the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes, leaving the Spartans and Badgers as the only one-loss teams in the Big Ten.

As already stated, the Spartans would own the advantage in a tie-breaker between the two programs.

Iowa

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IOWA CITY, IA - OCTOBER 30- Quarterback Ricky Stanzi #12 of the University of Iowa Hawkeyes warms up his throwing arm before play against the Michigan State Spartans at Kinnick Stadium on October 30, 2010 in Iowa City, Iowa. Iowa won 37-6 over Michigan St

If Iowa were to beat Ohio State on November 20, the Hawkeyes would still need help to reach Pasadena.  A three-way tie between Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin would not favor the Hawkeyes.  Iowa’s out-of-conference loss to Arizona back in Week 3 would be the deciding factor, as the Hawkeyes would own the worst overall win percentage of the three. 

A two-way tie with Wisconsin also ends Iowa’s Rose Bowl hopes, thanks to head coach Kirk Ferentz’s questionable clock management in the Hawkeye loss to the Badgers.  Essentially, the only tiebreaker that favors Iowa is its head-to-head win over Michigan State. Therefore, Iowa needs to run the table and hope for a Wisconsin loss.  If that happens Iowa will be representing the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl for the first time in 20 years.

With three weeks remaining in Big Ten play, four teams retain visions of roses.  Without a conference championship game to decide the matter, though, no team completely controls its own destiny.  Each program will obviously need to win out to keep its Rose Bowl hopes alive.  Each program will also need a little help, either from teams normally considered their rivals or from the voters and computer polls that determine the BCS standings.