Iowa-Northwestern: 10 Key Matchups As the Hawkeyes Try To Exorcise Past Demons
I want to hate Northwestern.
As an Iowa fan, they make it very easy. Pat Fitzgerald and his Wildcats have beaten the Hawkeyes four out of their last five meetings.
In 2009, they ended the Hawkeyes' dream season, and finished quarterback Ricky Stanzi's regular season by snapping his leg.
In 2008, they squeaked by due to five Hawk turnovers. They also concussed Doak Award-winning running back Shonn Greene, thereby finishing his game prematurely.
In 2006, they beat Iowa 21-7 in the game that arguably marked the low point of the Kirk Ferentz era.
In 2005, they came back from a 13-point deficit, scoring an improbable two touchdowns in less than three minutes. One of those touchdowns followed the recovery of an onside kick.
On top of all of that, Pat Fitzgerald has personally declared a rivalry with Iowa that, to the best of my knowledge, formerly existed only in his own head. Nevertheless, through competitiveness and sheer will, Fitzgerald has made that rivalry very real.
Needless to say, as a Hawk fan, it is easy to hate them, except for one issue: I have a huge amount of admiration for Pat Fitzgerald's program and what he has done with his team.
I won't go into all of the obstacles that the Wildcats face. The fact is, on paper, they shouldn't be 23-13 over the last four seasons. They shouldn't be a thorn in any respectable team's side. They shouldn't regularly be going to bowls.
They should be right alongside Indiana as the consistent doormat of the Big Ten.
Nevertheless, they're not, and I can't deny how much I respect them for that and for the way they accomplish it.
This week, Iowa heads to Evanston to try and get the monkey off its back for at least one year. And, for at least this week, I will do my best to put aside my respect, and hate the Wildcats.
Iowa's Defensive Line Vs. Dan Persa
1 of 102010 has unquestionably become the year of the quarterback in the Big Ten.
Ricky Stanzi is playing at a nationally recognized level. Michigan's Denard Robinson was the talk of the nation for a while.
Michigan State's Kirk Cousins and Wisconsin's Scott Tolzien should be in the dictionary under "quiet, understated efficacy." Despite the impossibility of living up to all the hype, OSU's Terrelle Pryor is putting together a very solid season.
However, going somewhat under the radar is Northwestern's Dan Persa, who may very well be the most complete (and dangerous) signal caller of all of them.
He is single-handedly responsible for 74.1 percent of his team's yards from scrimmage.
That is second in the conference behind Denard Robinson. And unlike Robinson, Persa's offensive line is kind of awful (I'll get to that shortly).
Outside of Terrelle Pryor, Persa is probably the second slipperiest quarterback the Hawks will face this season.
In fact, he reminds me quite a bit of former Iowa signal caller Drew Tate. This is especially manifest in his ability to get out of trouble while keeping his eyes downfield.
As the above video attests, he has turned quite a few seemingly negative plays into huge yard-gainers.
In effect, it will be imperative that Iowa's defensive line contains him, and brings him down when they can get to him.
If they consistently allow him to get out of the pocket and out of their grasp, it could be a long and frustrating game for the Hawks.
Iowa's Back Seven Vs Dan Persa
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Persa is the Wildcats leading rusher to the tune of 469 yards on the year. Outside of Persa, NU doesn't have any legitimate rushing threats.
They currently rank eighth in the conference in rushing yards. They rank second-to-last in yards per carry with a 3.34 average. This is despite the fact that they have only played two defenses—Michigan State and Penn State—that could fairly be called "respectable."
Surprisingly, they are also second in the conference in rushing attempts per game with an average of 45 runs per game. This is ahead of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State; the top three rushing offenses in the Big Ten.
As Northwestern runs a fair amount of read options, there will be plays where Persa is designed to run the ball. In other words, his rushing yards come as much by design as scrambling.
It will be imperative that the Iowa linebackers wrap him up when he crosses the line of scrimmage. Just as importantly, the backers and safeties will have to maintain their coverage when he scrambles.
Again, as with Drew Tate, Persa scrambles to find time to pass. When he escapes the pocket, his eyes are always upfield.
If a safety lets a receiver behind him while Persa is scrambling, rest assured, Persa—the third most efficient quarterback in the Big Ten—will find him.
Iowa's Defensive Line Vs. Northwestern's Offensive Line
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As for Northwestern's offensive line, they're terrible.
We've already established that they have not been an effective rushing team. That begins with the line.
However, they are also dead last in the conference—and 115th in the nation—in sacks allowed with 31. The Big Ten teams with the second-most sacks allowed have given up 18 each.
The Wildcats are giving up almost 3.5 sacks per game. That puts Persa's rushing abilities into perspective when you consider that he has lost over 150 yards to sacks.
The Iowa defense has come under a bit of fire this season. This is particularly true of the defensive line.
The defense, and especially the line, came into the season with expectations of being a top 10 unit. Right now, they are still the No. 6 scoring defense in the country and No. 8 total defense. No matter how you paint it, those numbers don't lie.
Nevertheless, there is no getting around the fact that in Iowa's two losses, the defense failed to put the opposing team away. Moreover, they almost failed last week against Indiana. They got lucky that a wide-open receiver dropped the would-be winning touchdown.
This week, there can be no excuses.
NU let up eight sacks to the only ranked team they have played (Michigan State). They let up another four to their only other opponent with a winning record (Penn State).
Iowa has a better defensive line than either of those teams. If the Hawks don't dominate the line of scrimmage and consistently get in Dan Persa's face, then this defense might have to officially be called a disappointment.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Jeremy Ebert and Sidney Stewart Vs. Shaun Prater and Micah Hyde
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We've established that Persa has minimal help in the backfield and a lousy line in front of him.
However, he does have a few very good receivers. Most notable is Jeremy Ebert, who spent much of last season nursing injuries.
In nine games this year, Ebert is leading the conference in receiving yards and receiving yards per game. He is also second in receptions, third in receptions per game, and fourth in both touchdowns and yards per catch.
If Persa is Drew Tate-like, Ebert is reminiscent of Ed Hinkel. In 2004, whenever Tate was buying time, you knew that eventually, sure-handed Ed Hinkel would get open and Tate would find him.
Ebert is unquestionably Persa's security blanket, as well as one of the best receivers in the conference.
After Ebert, Persa spreads the ball around fairly evenly. However, his second receiver is senior Sidney Stewart. Stewart is third on the Cats in receptions with 27 and second in yardage with 330.
As is evident from Ebert's 16.44 yards per catch, he has the ability to stretch the field.
In effect, Iowa's cornerbacks will not only have to shut down NU in the short game, but they will also have to be wary about the Cats going long.
Iowa Kickoff Return Coverage Vs Stephen Simmons
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The fact that Iowa's kickoff coverage is good for seventh in the Big Ten speaks volumes about how lousy Big Ten special teams have been this year.
In the end, seventh in the Big Ten equates to 83rd in the country.
Meanwhile, Northwestern's kickoff returns have also not been anything to brag about. The Cats rank ninth in the conference.
Nevertheless, kickoff coverage has cost Iowa dearly in both of its losses, as well as a couple of its wins. This is something that will be an issue to watch every single week, until Iowa proves it has it under control.
Drake Dunsmore Vs Shane Dibona or Jeff Tarpinian
6 of 10Last week, redshirt freshman Shane Dibona made his second collegiate start. The previous week, Dibona started at the WILL linebacker position for Jeremiah Hunter. Dibona had been practicing at WILL since the beginning of the season.
However, last week, Hunter returned, but the LEO linebacker Tyler Nielsen was out with an injury. In effect, Dibona played for him.
Kirk Ferentz is big on playing his best 11 men in any given situation. Obviously, Ferentz feels that Dibona, though out of position, is still one of his best 11. Nevertheless, last week, it was obvious that Dibona struggled at times.
At the moment, it appears that Tyler Nielsen will miss the rest of the season. It remains to be seen whether Dibona will start or whether senior Jeff Tarpinian will be able to return from his own injuries to resume a full-time role.
If Tarp does come back, it is likely that true frosh James Morris will continue to start at the MIKE position. Meanwhile, Tarp could start at LEO, where he has served as a backup in past.
If not, then it is likely that Dibona will stay on.
Whoever starts this week will have his hands full. He will probably be asked to cover Northwestern's starting H-back, Drake Dunsmore.
Dunsmore burst onto the scene last season with the linked touchdown catch in the Outback Bowl.
This season, he is the Cats' second leading receiver with 28 catches. He is also third on the team in yards with 274.
With an average yards per catch of 9.79, Dunsmore is unlikely to burn the Hawks on any long plays. Nonetheless, Persa will unquestionably be looking for him in third-and-short situations.
Iowa Offense Vs Playcalling
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Northwestern is a blitz-happy team. They are middle-of-the-road in terms of sacks. However, they only have one player—defensive end Vince Browne—that has gotten to the quarterback more than 1.5 times.
On the other hand, they have six players with one sack. In short, NU brings the pressure from every angle.
One of the best ways to beat the blitz is via well-timed and well-placed screen passes. This is something that Iowa hasn't done very regularly this season. Hopefully, it is something we will see more of this week.
Furthermore, the Wildcats are second in the Big Ten in allowing passes longer than 10 yards. They are third in passes longer than 20 yards. After 20 yards, their stats are not particularly garish.
What this says is that mid-range passes, most likely in the middle of the field, are there for a team willing to exploit Northwestern's weakness.
The problem, in my opinion, is that Iowa has occasionally been unwilling to do that this season. Obviously, going over the middle is arguably the most dangerous thing an offense can do. Kirk Ferentz, being conservative, is presumably more inclined to stick to the roll outs, waggles, and delays.
However, after nine games, the numbers don't lie. Between 10-20 yards, Northwestern is vulnerable. Iowa has got to exploit that.
Iowa Vs Pat Fitzgerald's Aggresiveness
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Northwestern has a kicking problem. Specifically, their kicker is not only second-to-last in the Big Ten in terms of field goal percentage and last in extra point percentage, but he also specializes in choking when the chips are down.
On top of that, Fitzgerald, for whatever reason, puts a special emphasis on the game with the Hawks. I can't say with any certainty, but I would guess that the only individual game that ranks higher on the NU rivalry list is their annual in-state showdown with Illinois.
Therefore, expect Pat Fitzgerald to be aggressive in this game.
He will be looking for points. He is unlikely to settle for kicking many field goals. He will pull out all the stops.
It is difficult to say exactly what this means for Iowa. However, my guess is that one of two things will happen.
The first possibility is that Northwestern will come out full steam ahead. Iowa will either weather the storm and take a decent lead early on, or the Cats will rattle Iowa a bit and grab a lead.
The second, and more likely possibility is that this will be a somewhat high-scoring affair. If Iowa is to win it, they will need at least 28 points. The 18 points they put up last week against an inferior Indiana team isn't going to cut it.
Iowa Vs. The Little Things
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Speaking of kickers, Iowa's got problems of its own.
It seems that true freshman Michael Myer has locked up the kicking job, which is good. Musical kickers might be worse than musical quarterbacks.
However, he has struggled at times. Overall, his field goal percentage—81.8—is very respectable for a true freshman. By comparison, Nate Kaeding kicked 63.4 percent his freshman year. On the other hand, Myer has missed two extra points, which places him second-to-last in the conference.
Last week, the Hawkeyes struggled in the red zone. In four attempts, they couldn't manage to punch the ball into the end zone even once. Myer also missed one of four field goal attempts (a chip shot miss, as it so happened).
Due primarily to said red zone woes, what should have been an easy Iowa win turned into an 18-13 nailbiter.
Last week goes as one more reminder of how fragile the difference is between an Iowa win and an Iowa loss. Leave points on the field—even one point—and it could very well mean a loss. Dot the i's and cross the t's, and more often than not, Iowa should be successful.
This is especially true against NU; an opponent against who Iowa has a history of making little mistakes.
As I previously said, I don't see 18 points being enough to beat Northwestern. In effect, Iowa will have to put last week behind them and turn their red-zone opportunities into seven points.
Northwestern Vs. Ryan Field (Kinnick East)
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Over the last two years, Northwestern has the second-lowest average attendance of any AQ-conference team.
This is despite the fact that over the previous two seasons, the NU football program has compiled nine and eight-win seasons, respectively.
This season, the athletic department is pulling out all the stops.
It remains to be seen whether their strategy will work, but one thing is certain: Their game against Iowa this weekend is the first sellout of the season for NU.
The reason for that is because Iowa City is only four hours away. In effect, Ryan Field will be packed with Hawk fans. In fact, I'd be surprised if at least half of the crowd is not decked out in black and gold.
The question is, is that disheartening to a home team? After all, you work hard, you bring home some nice wins, and then you look up, and your home field is full of the opposing teams' fans.
On the other hand, maybe it gets a player pumped.
I certainly couldn't say. However, I'll be in attendance on Saturday, and I know I won't be alone.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
