Texas Tech Football: How the Red Raiders Can Win vs. Missouri
Welcome to this edition of “Fantasy Land,” where we discuss topics relating to Texas Tech winning football games in Weeks 9-11 of its 2010 gridiron campaign.
This week, after an ugly loss to the Aggies in College Station, we look skeptically ahead to a Week 10 visit to Lubbock by the 7-1, 12th-ranked Missouri Tigers.
Missouri is fresh off a disappointing 31-17 loss in Lincoln to the 7-1, No. 7 Nebraska Cornhuskers.
The Cornhuskers handed the Tigers their first defeat on what was a perfect season including wins over Illinois, Texas A&M and a Week 8, 36-27 home victory over then-No. 1 Oklahoma.
The Red Raiders' 45-27 beat down at the hands of Texas A&M provides little confidence that Tech can muster a win against Missouri squad that has proven that they belong in the Big 12 title race.
The Matchup
Texas Tech (4-4) vs. No. 12 (BCS) Missouri (7-1)
Saturday, November 6, 7PM CST, Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock
ABC Regional Coverage
Missouri leads the all time series 5-2 and the Tigers are 2-2 in Lubbock. The last time the Red Raiders bested Missouri was in 2002, when Tech won, 52-38, in Lubbock. Tech has dropped its last three games to Missouri by a 141-62 margin.
Line: Missouri -4
Ten Things Tech Must Do to Win
Can the Red Raiders even hope to beat the Tigers? The following slideshow offers ten keys to Tech having a chance in this contest.
1.Run the Ball Effectively
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It is hard to expect much of a Red Raider offense that has sputtered its way through the 2010 schedule. Beyond just finding a way to move the ball consistently (any way), Tech will need to get some sort of ground game going to have even a remote opportunity to beat Missouri.
Why?
First, in Tech’s four wins the Red Raiders averaged 135 yards rushing (including a season high 174 yards vs. Baylor) and only 97 yards on the ground in its four losses.
Second, Missouri gave up a season-high 328 yards (70 percent of the total offensive output) on the ground in its only loss (to Nebraska). Two of the other teams that had a chance to beat the Tigers (Illinois and San Diego State) ran up 200 and 250 yards rushing, respectively.
2. Play Like It's the Second Quarter On Offense and The Third Quarter On Defense
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The Red Raiders have scored nearly 40 percent of all their points in the second quarter. They will have to match this output in other parts of the game to have a chance to outscore Missouri.
On the other side of the ball, Tech‘s defense has been most effective in the third quarter allowing only 20 percent of the total points given up this season.
Putting together a complete game both offensively and defensively will mean the Red Raiders will have to extend their small successes across a full game.
3. First Downs
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Texas Tech averaged 27 first downs per game in their four victories, while in their four defeats, they managed only 20 first downs per game.
Regardless of the offensive scheme or personnel, the Red Raiders must find a way to extend drives with first downs.
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4. Convert on Third Down
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In their four victories, Texas Tech converted 49 percent of their third-down plays into first downs, while in their four losses, they converted only 35 percent of the time.
Tech’s offense needs to convert every third down possible to stay on the field, move the ball and allow the defense precious time to readjust and rest.
5. Score in the Red Zone
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Another key to victory for the Red Raiders is the red zone. In its four victories, Tech came away with an 82 percent success rate and 138 points from its visits inside the 20-yard-line. In its losses, the Red Raiders were only 69 percent successful in the red zone, producing only 54 points.
Sure they will have to get down the field first, but when they finally do, the Red Raiders absolutely must leave the red zone with points—preferably touchdowns.
6. Stop Missouri
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In Missouri’s only loss on the season to Nebraska last Saturday, the Cornhuskers completely disarmed the Tigers otherwise potent offensive attack. Missouri gained under 200 yards in both passing and rushing for the first time this season in their loss to Nebraska.
Affirming that the Texas Tech defense needs to “shut down” the Tiger offense seems as simple minded and far-fetched as “the offense needs to score points.” But it is the simple truth: Defensive stops equal wins.
7. Get to Gabbert
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Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert is 199-of-311 with 12 TDs and four INTs. The unique statistic in the Tigers loss to Nebraska was that the Cornhusker defense sacked Gabbert six times. In the previous seven games the Tigers had only allowed eight total sacks, and the six sacks represent a full third of the 18 total sacks the Nebraska “D” has registered this season.
Tech needs get to Gabbert as a key to slowing down the Missouri attack.
8. Pass Defense
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Texas Tech ranks a dismal 119th nationally in pass defense (out of 120), allowing over 300 yards per game through the air.
Missouri ranks 23rd in passing offense and has managed an average of 275 passing yards per game.
The Red Raiders will have to manage a minor miracle and find a way to stop the Tiger passing attack in order to win on Saturday. The Cornhuskers are the only team this season to have limited Missouri to less than 200 yards through the air and they are the only team to have beaten the Tigers thus far in 2010 (Nebraska ranks fourth overall in passing defense allowing only 148 yards per game).
9. Protect the QB
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Will it be Sticks or Potts on Saturday?
Regardless, Texas Tech will not have a chance vs. the Tigers without protecting the QB. Missouri is tied for fifth nationally with 24 sacks in 2010. This number includes seven sacks alone in the 30-9 beat down vs. Texas A&M.
10. Stop the Run
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In Tech’s four victories, opponents only managed an average of 78 yards per game rushing, while in their four ugly defeats, opponents averaged 188 yards rushing.
This includes holding Baylor, who ranks 31st in rushing yards with 187 yards per game, to a mere 80 yards on the ground.
The Bottom Line
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It seems absolutely ludicrous that the underperforming, under-executing Tech is only a four-point underdog to a very good Missouri Tiger team.
The Red Raiders are banged up and have still not played a full 60 minutes of solid football this season.
The Lubbock home field advantage (especially given the emotional state of the Red Raider Nation) seems to be completely overstated in the odds makers’ line for this contest.
Alternatively, the four point line seems to offer less than the full measure of respect earned and due to a Missouri team that is only two touchdowns short of a perfect season.
However, if it were simple enough to look at these two teams on paper, compare their past performance and declare a winner, why would either squad even bother to take the field on Saturday night?
Indeed, as has been proven again and again, anything can happen in college football, including a questionable downward-spiraling Texas Tech team defeating a very good Missouri Tiger squad.
Probable? Unfortunately, not likely.
Possible? Absolutely.
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