Michigan Football: Trip to Penn State a Trick or a Treat For Young Wolverines?
Who: Michigan (5-2, 1-2) at Penn State (4-3, 1-2)
Where: Beaver Stadium, State College, PA
Time: 8:00 PM on ABC
Line: Michigan by 3
Starting the season the nation's No. 14 preseason team, Penn State has found their way down to an unspectacular 4-3 (1-2) this year and have earned the honor of biggest disappointment of the 2010 and are looking for a high(er) profile win to prove to everyone that they're not dead this season.
Meanwhile, Michigan is looking to curb a two-game slide to superior opponents and avoid the ghosts of 2009 past. A win at Happy Valley is the closest thing to a cure-all the Wolverines could get, rendering the constant comparisons to 2009 useless, the first bowl game for Michigan under Rodriguez's tenure, job security, etc.
The delicious irony of this game is that Penn State declared that no team "is worthy of a white out game" in 2010. Sure, Penn State's home slate consisted of some not-so-attractive options in Youngstown State, Temple, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Indiana—but surely Michigan would be the no-brainer, right?
Apparently wrong, and as the article states, due to Rich Rod's 8-16 record coming into 2010, it would be a "stretch to consider that a worthy 'White House' game". Yet Michigan comes in ranked No. 25 in the coaches poll and with a better overall record than the Nittany Lions.
What's even more ironic is that they didn't even give a thought to Michigan State, who now ranks fifth in both major polls (and the BCS) and has a legitimate shot at the national title game, sitting undefeated at 8-0.
Lesson:
If you're going to stick your nose up in the air and say "I'm too good", then please, do us a favor and actually be good.
But, I digress...
Will Michigan come out of Happy Valley with a treat, or will Paterno deliver the Wolverines a nasty trick?
Michigan's Rushing Offense Vs. Penn State's Rushing Defense
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Denard Robinson leads the nation in rushing yards (1,096) but is being challenged by Auburn's QB Cam Newton. I suspect, however, that that's the furthest thing from Robinson's mind coming into Saturday's prime-time matchup.
Michigan has struggled to find a go-to rushing back. This isn't for lack of talent—Toussaint, Shaw, Smith and Hopkins all could be a threat at RB, but no one has stepped up thus far. Hopkins is very physical, and that physicality has proven him a great short-yardage back. He did score the only rushing TD Iowa had allowed this season on Oct. 16th. Tate Forcier followed him up with a 2nd. As a true freshman, he (and Dee Hart?) should be the future of the Michigan rush attack. But alas, for now, we've got very capable backs that like to get themselves injured.
Despite that huge lack of a backfield presence, Michigan's rushing attack still ranks seventh in the nation at 281.6 yards/game, and that's after Michigan has faced two of the three best defenses it will face all season (minus the [hopefully] bowl game).
Penn State's defensive line has struggled and underachieved season long.
Penn State allows an average of 143.8 rushing YPG. For a (biased) measure, consider that Iowa came to the Big House allowing a stingy 62 yards/game, but Michigan managed to rush for 182 yards (almost three times as much as they were allowing!)
Penn State's defense is alright when healthy, but slipped to just a bit sub-par after some key injuries. With Robinson definitely excited to get back on track, the Nittany Lions might have trouble stopping Michigan's rush.
Edge: MICHIGAN
Michigan Pass Attack Vs. Penn State's Pass Defense
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Against a weak Minnesota team, Penn State's defensive line recorded just one sack and had difficulty getting to Minnesota QB all day. Actually, the entire front seven had difficulty getting to Weber. This could be in large part because most of them were playing injured. Linebackers Michael Mauti, Gerald Hodges, and Bani Gbadyu are all playing with injuries, so is starting DE Jack Crawford. Yikes! DE Peter Massaro and DE Jordan Hill suffered season-ending injuries earlier
A limping, yet determined defensive front will go against a vaunted Michigan offensive line. Michigan got an upgrade (if that's possible?) with Taylor Lewan at tackle (despite his jumpiness), and with center David Molk sure to play this week, that anchors one of the most—perhaps the most—spectacular offensive lines in the Big Ten. Michigan's OL is allowing a Big Ten best 0.43 sacks/game, part skill, part because Denard is the fastest man in college football.
Denard's passing, however, has struggled as of late. Throughout the first five games of the season, Robinson had just one INT. In the sixth and seventh games, he recorded four INTs, including three to Michigan State. Despite dropping from the nation's third most efficient passer, his rating still sits at 159— good for 16th in the nation. As soon as he gets the zip on the ball like Tate has, goodbye anyone who tries to go against him.
Speaking of Tate, if Michigan is having success through the air and/or Denard struggles against Penn State with his arm, expect to see the sophomore signal caller in. Against Iowa, Forcier threw 17 of 26 for 239 yards and a TD. He did record two INTs, but one was in desperation, and the game would've been over for Michigan if he had taken the sack, and the other was just an ill-advised throw. Still, he ignited a three TD rampage by the Michigan offense and pulled the team within a TD (from being down three at the beginning of the fourth). While the comeback bid ultimately failed, Michigan proved it's got talent in the air.
This comes against a decimated (theme here?) Penn State secondary. Starting safety Nick Sukay is out with a season-ending injury (we feel you there, think Troy Woolfolk) as is hero reserve safety Andrew Dailey. Penn State is reaching a bit deeper than Paterno would like into the depth at secondary.
Penn State allows a respectable 187.9 yards/game through the air, despite the troubles they've faced.
Perhaps the single most important thing for Michigan QB Denard Robinson is to play loose. Everyone saw how tight he was against Michigan State as he was frequently making ill-advised throws into heavily covered areas (while other receivers were wide open). If Denard doesn't see a pass that's going to happen, then he needs to do what he does best, tuck it and run for at least a few yards.
Still, Michigan's passing attack can be very potent, especially when the run doesn't work. If Michigan needs to, they'll flex their muscles through the air.
Edge: MICHIGAN (slight)
Penn State's Rushing Attack Vs. Michigan's Rushing Defense
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Pre-season All-American hopefuly Evan Royster was going to carry this team to victory. In reality, he has struggled, failing to come anywhere close to previous season-numbers, and that's what scares me the most. Michigan has made a bad habit recently of making relatively low-key players look like Heisman contenders in games. In 2008, it was Juice Williams of Illinois, and he did it again in 2009. Williams, like Royster, had seen much success earlier in his respective career, but seemed to falter down the stretch. Michigan might be the team that lets Royster unload.
Furthermore, Royster only needs 31 yards to become Penn State's all-time leading rusher. Based on the defensive performances I've seen in Michigan's first seven games, he should have zero problems getting those 31 yards. Perhaps I'll make a poster for him...
All is not lost, however, as Michigan has done decently defending the run. Michigan is allowing 144 rushing yards/game. While not the best, it certainly could be worse. I've yet to determine whether or not Michigan's run defense is good (rather, average, but good compared to the rest of the D), or teams just go through the air because they know they will win that way.
Still, against Michigan State, half of their 249 rushing yards came on two plays where Obi Ezeh blew his gap responsibility (both went for TDs). Had he not blown his assignment, then Michigan might have only allowed around 130 rushing yards. This was against a formidable trio of Le'veon Bell, Edwin Baker, and Larry Caper. Penn State's backfield is not that loaded, and if Evan Royster continues to struggle, expect Penn State's rushing attack to continue to falter.
Still, I can't shake this feeling that this week, their rush attack wakes up. It's important for Michigan that Mike Martin is back in the game. Despite him being double and triple teamed, he is still able to make plays. He was even quite effective when moved to DE (he sacked Stanzi) and is a valuable asset to an otherwise porous defense. (Also, can we clone him, please?)
Michigan is alright against the run, but expect Royster to show why he's still the go-to man at Penn State.
Edge: PENN STATE
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Penn State's Pass Attack Vs. Michigan's Pass Defense
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To be honest, Michigan would have trouble defending the pass against some high school teams. While upsetting, it's perfectly legitimate, seeing as three of the five defensive backs were playing on Friday nights only a year ago. In effect, our defensive backfield looks remarkably similar to that of a high school backfield. Unfortunately for Michigan, Rich Rodriguez, and the fall of 2010, the only thing that can fix that is time—something that everyone is running out of.
The "good" news for Michigan: Penn State starting QB Rob Bolden looks to be out for the game this weekend after suffering a head injury against Minnesota last week (I use the quotes because injured players are never really a good thing). Rich Rod knows and can totally empathize with Joe Paterno on the use of freshman QBs. Bolden is completing 58.2 percent of his passes and has thrown just five TDs compared to seven INTs.
So, if Bolden's out, who's left?
Matt McGloin and Kevin Newsome are left. [Interesting tidbit: Newsome was a former U-M commit].
I suspect if Bolden is out, McGloin will start. He came in against Minnesota and threw two TDs. This shouldn't be too difficult to do against Michigan.
Newsome took a few snaps and has thrown for 78 yards, rushed a few times, managed one rushing TD —no TD passes or INTs.
There's not a whole lot to know about these potential starting QBs. If Michigan's defense doesn't make Evan Royster look like the All-American running back he is (was?), then I worry that one of Penn State's new QB's will have a breakout day. Hopefully Michigan's philosophy of bend-don't-break looks more like it should (as opposed to the bend-and-break defense we've seen in the past couple games).
Furthermore, Penn State's offensive line is...horrible. They're slow and can't sustain blocks, so if Michigan's defensive line can take advantage of this, this would be the Wolverines' best bet to foil Penn State's passing game.
Still, I'm not ready to give the advantage to Michigan's secondary—regardless of who they face (be it "Big Bird" from Sesame Street all the way up to Cam Newton).
Edge: PENN STATE
Special Teams
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Collin Wagner of Penn State has made 13 of 17 field goal attempts and all 13 extra point attempts. Michigan's combined kickers have combined for two of eight on the year (what?!) and have all but reassured Rodriguez that it doesn't matter how close to the goalposts Michigan's offense is on fourth down, he's got to go for it.
Read: If the game comes down to a field goal, Michigan is not going to win.
At least we have kickoffs, right? No. If Seth Broekhuizen (Michigan's kicker) can't keep the ball within the 53 yard width of the field (Iowa won because he kicked two out of bounds, allowing Iowa to start at the 40), why do we expect him to make it between the significantly smaller distance between the goalposts?
All said, he's been fine with extra point attempts, so that's a point for him (albeit a weak one).
Michigan's return game has also been significantly off. Last year, Darryl Stonum broke a school record for yards returned (1,001), and he also ran a kick back for a TD against Notre Dame. This year, Michigan is averaging less than 20 (19.87) yards per kick return. That's good for 109th in FBS. Certainly not doing the offense any favors in this aspect.
Michigan averaged 5.11 yards per punt return, but to be fair, they call fair catch most of the time. Also, I would much prefer that then watch them fumble the punt and have the kicking team recover. Despite being 111th in FBS, I prefer it this way.
Meanwhile, Penn State ranks 10th in FBS in kick return yards, averaging 26 yards per return. They are also averaging just over six yards a punt return (although PSU fans don't usually have to look to the skies and pray that the player (1) catches the ball and (2) doesn't drop the ball).
Penn State also holds an advantage over Michigan in the punting game, averaging over 38 yards per punt (Michigan averages just over 37 per punt). However, despite a shaky start, true freshman Will Hagerup has been very impressive as of late. In the first three games, Hagerup averaged 40.8 yards/punt. In the past four, he's averaged 48.4, including long punts of over 60 yards against MSU and Iowa. He's shaping up quite nicely, and if he keeps on pace, the student section will begin throwing up a 'W' for Will (like they threw up a 'Z' for Zoltan).
Still, Hagerup's improvement is not enough to offset otherwise abysmal special team units.
Edge: PENN STATE (Heavily)
The X-Factor: Michigan's Ability to Make Opponents Look Like Heisman Contenders
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I hinted to this earlier, but Michigan has a knack for making nondescript players look like frontrunners for the Heisman. It happened with Juice Williams in 2008 and 2009 (Juice Williams set several offensive records at the Big House in 2008), and I fear it might happen again this year.
If Michigan lets Evan Royster or (insert Penn State QB) have a breakout day, then it might just be Michigan's swan song. The offense is good, but not good enough to cover for every single defensive mistake. Furthermore, the special teams at Michigan are in disarray, which puts even more stress on an offense that's had to do it all already. It's difficult to predict what will happen with a team that ranks high nationally (way higher than Penn State, who averages a dismal 18.2 PPG) in one category (offense) and so low in the two other categories (special teams, defense).
Michigan will have to limit the breakout plays. It was one of a few things that went wrong against MSU, and, although less apparent, an issue in the loss to Iowa.
Overview
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In terms of who needs it more, the answer is clearly Michigan. Paterno just fielded two successful Penn State teams (including a Rose Bowl team in 2008). Rodriguez and Michigan are looking for their first bowl in three tries, even if it's just down the road (think Pizza! Pizza!).
Furthermore, if the endless comparisons of 2010 to 2009 are going to stop, Michigan is going to have to reach that elusive sixth victory. A lot is on the line this week. Michigan's previous two losses, while upsetting, are forgivable, seeing as both teams are ranked in the BCS (Michigan State is No. 5!!). If Michigan loses to a team that is inferior in terms of talent, then issues about who will be the next coach will begin to swirl.
A loss for Michigan means more uncertainty—perhaps even a coaching change. A change that will only knock Michigan back to 2008, and we will continue putting "square pegs in round holes" as Michigan would have the personnel for a spread team and not a pro-style team.
Alright, perhaps that's apocalyptic, but whoever loses this game on October 30th in Happy Valley will essentially have a dagger through the heart for 2010, effectively laying the season to rest. A loss for Penn State drops them to .500 at 4-4, and with Ohio State, Northwestern, and Michigan State left on the schedule, they'd struggle to get to 6-6. With a freshman QB and slew of injuries, though, the 2010 season may just be forgettable for the Nittany Lions and they move on.
Not so much for the Wolverines. Should Michigan lose, the likelihood of a bowl game begins slipping away. The echoes of 2009 grow even louder. A loss here coupled with NCAA sanction announcements might be enough to signal the end of the Rich Rod experiment in Ann Arbor.
Michigan takes on a surprisingly tough Illini team the following week, a game which figures to be much harder to win than preseason prognosticators thought. A loss here would mean maybe 7-5, perhaps 6-6, and even more frustration and disappointment for Michigan.
Prediction
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Thus far, I'm 6-1 on my predictions for the Wolverines, my lone blemish coming from the underwhelming performance against Michigan State.
So what to expect on Saturday?
Michigan lucks out and sees center David Molk and nose guard Mike Martin return to the game. Both players are absolutely key to Michigan's on-field success. Meanwhile, Penn State is getting some depth back from injuries, but still playing with a pretty decimated team.
Robinson's throwing will look better, but his running (as coach Rich Rod said) is there. Look for Evan Royster to perk up a bit against weak Michigan defense. The Penn State starting QB will likely put up respectable yards through the air, but Michigan's defense will force some youthful mistakes.
PSU averages 18.2 PPG
Michigan averages 36 PPG
And it's not as if those 36 PPG are against all cupcakes, as Michigan has faced two of the toughest three defenses (MSU, Iowa) that the Wolverines will face all season. The only remaining is Ohio State on November 27th.
Penn State hangs around, but Michigan puts the game away in the fourth quarter.
MICHIGAN: 35, Penn State 24
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
