Iowa vs. Michigan State: 10 Key Matchups in This Last Chance To Smell the Roses
With the Hawkeyes' loss to Wisconsin last week, things definitely took a turn for the worse in Iowa City.
What began as a season replete with dreams of Roses and National Championships has now been reduced to needing Wisconsin to lose in order for Iowa to go to the Rose Bowl. That is, of course, assuming Iowa actually wins each of their last five games; a lofty assumption indeed.
However, there are worse things than the two losses Iowa has incurred. Specifically, I think that a lot of fans have a hard time imagining Iowa beating Ohio State on Nov. 20 and Michigan State next week, let alone Northwestern in three weeks.
After all, the defense is not playing like a top 20 or even top 30 unit, the special teams are a mess, and there has been at least one instance of Les Miles-esque play calling.
Nevertheless, there is still a lot of talent on this football team. Furthermore, you can believe that Adrian Clayborn, Ricky Stanzi, DJK, etc. want to end their college football careers with as many wins as possible.
I still feel like this is a team that can beat any team in the conference, let alone the country. I still feel like they have the personnel to do it.
There just seems to be some small piece missing.
Hopefully, the Hawks find it this week, because no matter the lofty preseason expectations for this group, 10-2 and a shared Big Ten title is still an extremely good season for any Iowa team.
Special Teams Vs Iowa
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Thus far this season, Iowa has allowed one kickoff return for a touchdown, one blocked punt, and two fake punts to go for first downs and substantial yardage. They have also missed two extra points, and botched one field goal before the kicker even got a shot at it.
Remember the days of Nate Kaeding being automatic, and Bob Sanders doing double time as a heat-seeking missile on kickoff returns? Well, right now, those days are a distant memory.
Meanwhile, Michigan State's punter has the second-highest yards-per-punt average in the conference. Their kicker is 13-for-13 with a long of 50. They are fourth in the conference in kickoff return defense and a respectable sixth in punt return defense.
They are also tops in the conference in punt returns and their lone rough spot is their No. 8 ranking in kickoff returns.
Oh, and they're also full of plenty of trickeration.
Big Ten Expansion Vs Iowa and Michigan State
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Next season, the Big Ten will expand to 12 teams. Nebraska will join the fray, which will cause the conference to break up into two divisions; two divisions that were chosen with "competitive fairness" as the first priority.
The division of both Iowa and Michigan State also features Nebraska, Michigan, Northwestern, and Minnesota. It remains to be seen which will be the stronger division overall, but right now, the Iowa/MSU division appears to easily be the more competitive of the two.
Obviously, the first teams put in this division were Nebraska and Michigan, both of whose historical dominance will balance out the dominance of Ohio State and Penn State in the other division.
However, the second tier seems to be inhabited wholly by Iowa and Michigan State.
It remains to be seen whether Michigan will regain the swagger it once had, or whether Iowa or MSU will take the next step in terms of program prestige.
However, given the current level of parity between the Hawks and Spartans, I wouldn't be surprised if the next decade or so sees this now-annual matchup become a whole lot more intense.
Maybe last year's slugfest was just the first in what will be a series of hotly contested matchups.
MSU's Front Seven Vs Iowa's O-Line
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One of the most pleasant surprises of this year's Iowa team has been their offensive line.
What began the year as one senior, one sophomore, and three question marks has turned into a definitive strength.
In fact, at the beginning of the season, I felt that Iowa had three big questions in front of them: offensive line, quarterback play, and the kicking game. I feel that Iowa has sufficiently answered the questions on the line and at quarterback.
Certainly, nobody is going to mistake this group for 2002's bunch, but they are doing as much as one could ask from such an inexperienced group.
Meanwhile, along with Arizona and Ohio State, Michigan State might have the best front seven Iowa will see all year.
As it is always imperative that Iowa control the line of scrimmage and establish the run, this will fall on their front five.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
MSU's O-Line Vs Iowa's D-Line
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At the same time, the Spartans' line has also been a pleasant surprise to their fans.
In fact, Phil Steele picked two MSU linemen for his midseason All-Big Ten team. He also picked one for his second all-conference team and one for the third team.
That is more than any other offensive line in the conference; more than Ohio State, more than Wisconsin, and more than Michigan.
With all due respect to Michigan State's very talented and impressive tailbacks, the emergence of this O-line is a huge part of their success on the ground this year.
Meanwhile, Iowa's defensive line came into the season with as much hype as anybody not named Terrelle Pryor. Unfortunately, it's difficult to say that they've actually delivered.
They've been very good at times, but in big games and on big drives, they have failed to really shut down the opposing offense.
Nevertheless, they're a proud bunch, and like the rest of the Hawkeye team, they are fully aware that this game is their last shot at this year's Big Ten title.
Pride Vs Iowa's Defense
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Fifty-nine points in two weeks: 28 against Michigan and 31 against Wisconsin.
The last time Iowa let up over 50 points in a two-week period was 2007. That season, they did it twice: Indiana and Penn State and then Purdue and Michigan State.
Of course, I would argue that this year's Michigan and Wisconsin have more potent offenses than the 2007 incarnations of IU, PSU, PU, and MSU.
Nevertheless, there is no getting around the fact that for two weeks in a row, Iowa's defense has looked good, but very human and very beatable.
There have been a number of seemingly peripheral aspects that have probably played a part in that, none more so than the absence of Iowa's defensive coordinator, Norm Parker.
The reality is that Parker's health problems may end his career. This leaves Hawk fans wondering if the last two weeks are a clue as to what a future without Parker may look like.
Assuming Parker's absence has been the primary reason for the defense's relative softness, I do think there are extenuating circumstances to consider.
Firstly, this was not planned. The Hawkeye coaching staff and team has had to adjust on the fly, and that is not easy to do.
Secondly, for much of this time, Iowa has been down one coach. A few weeks ago, they were allowed to plug former Iowa linebacker LeVar Woods into the vacant spot. However, that is replacing over 30 years of Norm Parker's experience and over 10 years of staff continuity with a fairly green face.
Thirdly, defensive backs coach Phil Parker and linebacker coach Darrell Wilson are currently working as the co-defensive coordinators, and you know what they say about two cooks.
In short, the Iowa Hawkeyes' players and coaches have a proud defense with a proud defensive tradition. They are fully aware of the criticism that has been heaped upon them, and they will be sure to want to end that this week.
Michigan State Vs Iowa's Game Prep
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Last week, Iowa lost to Wisconsin.
The advantage going into this week is that MSU runs similar offensive schemes to UW. Both run a traditional power-based, run-first system.
Both teams depend on a dominant line to set the tone for offense. Both use the run to set up the play action, although in the Spartans' case, they are much more prone to work the deep ball off the fake.
Both employ two running backs that have very different running styles. Both feature an efficient, experienced quarterback. Both use a lot of tight ends and still use a fullback in the age of spread offenses.
In short, both run schemes very similar to Iowa.
The advantage here is not only has Iowa been preparing for the same type of team for the past two weeks, but the Iowa D played against that sort of offense throughout fall camp.
In the end, there is very little MSU will throw at Iowa that they haven't already seen. Even more so than is the norm, it will come down to perfect execution.
Whoever executes better will win.
Mark Dantonio's Aggressiveness Vs Kirk Ferentz's Conservatism
7 of 10The linked play is something you will never, ever, ever, never see Kirk Ferentz attempt. It is highly unlikely you will see him attempt it near the end of a very close game, and it is unfathomable to think of him attempting it during overtime where not scoring means a loss for his team.
Meanwhile, Mark Dantonio has done it twice this season. He did it against Notre Dame and last week against Northwestern. It is true that the game was not on the line against Northwestern, as it was against the Irish.
It is also true that the play against Northwestern was hardly surprising. The one against Notre Dame will probably go down as the most shocking individual play of the season.
However, that is Dantonio. He is a coach that will go for the throat every time, and will pull every trick in the book to make it happen. And you have to respect that.
Last season, when MSU played Iowa and pulled a hook and lateral in the closing minutes of the game, I tipped my cap. I said, "If the Spartans win on that, then God bless them, because that was a thing of beauty that took nerves of steel."
On the other hand, Kirk Ferentz is a paragon of conservatism, and like all conservative coaches, he's got a pretty basic model for winning games: Take care of the ball, score as much as necessary, control the clock, and let a strong defense and special teams salt away games.
With a record of 82-38 over the past 10 years, it is difficult to argue against his philosophy. Still, this year, some have maintained that his conservatism has been the difference between 7-0 and 5-2.
As has been noted, Iowa and MSU run very similar schemes. Yet, the way the two head coaches work out of those schemes couldn't be much more divergent.
Michigan State's Linebackers Vs Brett Morse
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Michigan State has arguably the best linebacker group in the Big Ten.
We all know how good All-American Greg Jones is, but less heralded—yet also extremely good—are Eric Gordon and Chris Norman.
These players are tackling machines and will be worthy of all-conference status, with Jones, of course, garnering All-American status.
Meanwhile, Iowa's fullback is senior Brett Morse.
A fullback in today's game is not a desirable job. It is all dirty work and virtually no glory. All things considered, it may be the least prestigious position in modern football.
For the few teams that still employ fullbacks, a good fullback is a quarterback's and halfback's best friend, because said fullback keeps those players clean and making plays.
Iowa is one of those few teams (as is MSU), and I would expect a lot of fullback looks against MSU. If Morse is successful, it should mean a very good day for Iowa's running game and a lot of time for Ricky Stanzi to find open receivers.
Kirk Cousins Vs Iowa's Linebackers
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As fellow FC Stix Symmonds so cogently pointed out early in the season, Iowa's linebackers are a decided fall off from the linebackers they are replacing. They have not played badly, but there is no getting around the fact that their pass coverage out of Iowa's zone defense has left something to be desired.
Arizona quarterback Nick Foles took advantage of it, Michigan backup Tate Forcier took advantage of it, and Wisconsin quarterback Scott Tolzien took advantage of it.
The holes they are leaving between them and the safeties have given opposing quarterbacks chances to make a lot of 10-15 yard plays.
Needless to say, at first I was a bit skeptical regarding Stix's analysis, but after seven games, there is no arguing with what we have seen.
Where last year, Iowa was virtually impenetrable in this area, this year, they are soft and vulnerable.
Meanwhile, along with Nick Foles, Scott Tolzien, and Northwestern's Dan Persa, Kirk Cousins is probably the most accurate, efficient, and thus dangerous quarterback Iowa will face this year.
Cousins is currently ranked 12th in the country in passer efficiency rating and fourth in the conference. This is despite a somewhat slow start against the cupcake portion of the Spartans' schedule.
In other words, the best of Cousins' statistics have come, for the most part, in the Big Ten part of the season.
Therein lies the real danger of the MSU offense. They are the 28th-ranked rushing offense in the country, but unlike Michigan and Wisconsin, if you stop their running game, they can still beat you through the air.
Michigan State Vs All The Marbles
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As we are well aware, Michigan State is 8-0 right now.
Following their game against Iowa, their remaining schedule is as follows: Minnesota, bye, Purdue, at Penn State.
If I was a bookmaker, I'd favor MSU with at least a three-touchdown advantage over Minnesota, two touchdowns over PU, and 10 points over PSU. That is 10 points over the Nits, despite the fact it is in Happy Valley and MSU has not won there since 1966.
In other words, if the Spartans beat the Hawks, then a 12-0 record seems very likely. I don't know if that will get them to the National Championship, but it would certainly get them to the Rose Bowl.
It goes without saying that MSU has to take it one game at a time, and I'm sure Mark Dantonio would say that is exactly what his team is doing.
However, I'm also sure Dantonio is aware of the situation.
Beat Iowa and odds are very good that the Spartans will have their first BCS bid, their first Big Ten championship since 1990, their first undefeated season since 1966, and possibly their first shot at a National Championship since that fabled 66 season.
In short, Michigan State has a lot to lose and a lot to win in this game.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
