College Football Bowl Projections: Ohio State Out, So Who's BCS Bound?
College football bowl projections suddenly aren't so nebulous anymore.
With all of the major upsets in college football this weekend coupled with the release of the first BCS standings of 2010, it's time to take a look at the bowl landscape.
With all of the losses from highly ranked teams, we've seen quite a bit of shaking up going on. Teams have found themselves sliding in the polls, and with it, their bowl fortunes have turned quite precipitously.
Most recently, the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes fell victim to the Wisconsin Badgers on the road, losing 30-18 at Camp Randall Stadium. How far have the Buckeyes fallen? Let's take a look.
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Kansas State V. Oregon State
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The Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl pits the fifth best Big 12 team against the third best team in the Pac 10. It takes place December 30, in sunny San Diego.
Why Kansas St. Is Here: The Wildcats will finish 2010 squarely in the middle of the Big 12 pack, ranking fifth. They can beat up on the lower ranks of the Big 12, but they don't have the firepower or the talent to keep up with Nebraska, Texas and Oklahoma. Running back Damien Thomas is one of football's best, and quarterback Carson Coffman has been excellent.
Why Oregon State is Here: The Beavers have looked solid in the Pac 10, but not quite good enough to rank in the top three in the conference. With two teams heading to the BCS, though, Oregon State can expect a bid. Running back Jacquizz Rodgers is one of college football's most dynamic runners, and quarterback Ryan Katz is getting better every week.
What Could Change: If Kansas State can knock off Oklahoma State, Texas or Mizzou in the coming weeks, they'll move up the bowl totem, but this is the farthest they'll probably fall. For Oregon State, if they can survive a brutal end of the year (USC, Stanford and Oregon), and win 2 of those three, they could finish as high as second in the Pac 10.
Final Score: Oregon State 24, Kansas State 20.
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech V. Washington
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The Sun Bowl pits the fourth best Pac-10 team against the fourth best ACC squad, and has historically been a fairly exciting game. It's held in El Paso, Texas on New Year's Eve.
Why Georgia Tech is Here: Paul Johnson's triple-option offense has been as dangerous as ever in 2010, but the Yellow Jackets' defense has been positively awful, giving up 23.1 points per game. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt and running back Anthony Allen can eat up yards by the bushel, but this team should finish no better than fourth in a lackluster ACC.
Why Washington is Here: The Washington Huskies were a preseason Pac-10 favorite, but they struggled to find a rhythm early in the season. But head coach Steve Sarkisian and quarterback Jake Locker give Washington enough brain power and firepower to claw their way to fifth in the Pac-10. They'll make this bow by virtue of two Pac-10 teams making the BCS games.
How it Could Change: Washington's next three games are against ranked teams. They've proven to be giant killers, and if they can escape that stretch over .500, they could easily jump in the rankings. This is about as high as Georgia Tech can climb this season.
Final Score: Washington 35, Georgia Tech 21.
Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State V. Northwestern
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The Insight Bowl has been one of the more underrated bowl games in recent years, pitting the fourth or fifth best Big 10 team against the fourth or fifth best Big 12 team. It's had some fantastic finishes, and high scoring shootouts, and this matchup would be no exception.
Why Northwestern is Here: The Wildcats had looked great, up until their loss to Purdue this week. Quarterback Dan Persa is the heart and soul of the Northwestern offense, and the defense has been solid, even if they have a tendency to give up big plays.
Why Oklahoma State is Here: I know the Cowboys are 6-0, but they also haven't played anyone of consequence yet. Texas A&M hasn't looked good against good competition, and Baylor is still Baylor, at least in football. So for now, Oklahoma State goes here.
How it Could Change: Both of these teams have the potential to pull some serious upsets in coming weeks. If they can prove their mettle against elite competition, they'll climb the standings, and get to a high-profile bowl game.
Final Score: Northwestern 28, Oklahoma State 24.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina State V. Cincinnati
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The Meineke Car Care Bowl looks like it will once again be a destination for teams who failed to live up to expectations in 2010. The second-ranked Big East team takes on the third-best ACC school in this New Year's Eve Bowl.
Why Cincinnati's Here: A 1-3 start to the season will see the Bearcats fail to claim another Big East title, but they've been solid in conference play none the less. Quarterback Zach Collaros has been excellent, but the defense has been unable to stop anyone or anything in 2010.
Why NC State is here: The Wolfpack beat up on cupcakes (and, ironically enough, the Bearcats) to start the season 4-0, but when the going got tough, the perfect record got going, and NC State has lost 2 of three. Russell Wilson leads a high octane offense, but the defense is giving up 23.7 points per game.
How it Could Change: The Bearcats are undefeated in Big East play, and have the firepower to run the table this season. If that happens, Cincinnati will find itself back in a BCS game. The Wolfpack, on the other hand, have probably overachieved a bit to get to this point.
Final Score: Cincinnati 45, NC State 35.
Champs Sports Bowl: Miami (Florida) V. Notre Dame
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The Champs Sports Bowl has all the makings of a classic. It pits the third-ranked ACC team up against the Big East's runner up. However, if Notre Dame qualifies for a bowl, the Irish can take the spot from the Big East.
Why Notre Dame is Here: The Irish appear to have gotten things back on track after that 1-3, start, ripping off three straight wins. Quarterback Dayne Crist has looked excellent, and once the defense comes around, Notre Dame could be successful once again.
Why Miami is Here: Miami has looked excellent at times in 2010. But they've had two chances to prove themselves against elite opponents, and failed to deliver in both cases. Still, when they're good, they can win ballgames, which should put them third in the ACC.
How it Could Change: The Irish could go to a bigger bowl than this, if they manage to finish strong in 2010, while Miami could still go up or down, depending on how the rest of 2010 goes.
Final Score: Notre Dame 21, Miami 17.
Konica Minolta Gator Bowl: Michigan State V. Florida
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What happened to the Gator Bowl? I remember it being a better game than this. In the 2010-2011 season, it pits the fourth-best Big 10 team against the fourth or fifth best SEC squad.
Why Michigan State is Here: The Spartans are 6-0 and ranked seventh in the polls, but a trio of trap games could see them slip in the standings. Quarterback Kirk Cousins looks legit, but you can't trust Michigan State. Sure, they beat Wisconsin. But it was at home. Sure, they beat Michigan. But the Wolverines' defense just isn't that good this season.
Why Florida is Here: Things have not gone according to plan for the Gators in 2010. They've struggled with a non-mobile quarterback, and they managed a measly 7 points in a loss to Mississippi State last week. But the Gators have enough to finish in the top 5 of the SEC, and have the drawing power to get them a decent bowl.
How It Could Change: If the Spartans can run the table, or even finish with just one loss, they'll be higher than this. If Florida can win out in the SEC, they'll do the same.
Final Score: Michigan State 24, Florida 14.
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Nebraska V. Arkansas
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Another one of the sneaky good non-BCS games pits the second or third ranked Big 12 team against the best remaining SEC West squad.
Why Nebraska's Here: The Cornhuskers got schooled by Texas in their clash last weekend, but make no mistake, quarterback Taylor Martinez and Nebraska are the real deal. I'd be shocked if they lost before the Big 12 title game. But, sadly for the Huskers, it won't be enough to send them BCS bowling.
Why Arkansas is Here: The Razorbacks have looked good enough to be a BCS contender, but have fallen just short against Alabama, and got out gunned by Auburn. Quarterback Ryan Mallett leads a high powered offensive assault, but the defense has serious questions to answer.
How it Could Change: The Razorbacks probably can't get much higher than the Cotton Bowl, while an upset of Oklahoma could send the Huskers to a BCS game.
Final Score: Nebraska 31, Arkansas 21.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Arizona V. Texas
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The Alamo Bowl is a relative classic, and it's almost always a fantastic game. This year pits the second-best Pac-10 team against the second or third best Big 12 team.
Why Texas is Here: Things have gone terribly awry in Austin this season. A pair of losses to UCLA and Oklahoma sent the Longhorns reeling, but Texas has bounced back with a big win over Nebraska last week. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert is a big change from Colt McCoy, but he's got a better arm to make up for his lack of mobility.
Why Arizona is Here: The Wildcats have the talent to finish third in the Pac-10, but they were dealt a blow by Nick Foles' knee sprain. The quarterback is sidelined two to three weeks. Even without Foles, look for Arizona to lock up third, which will place them squarely in this contest.
How it Could Change: If Arizona struggles without Foles at the helm, they might not make it this high. If Texas' offensive woes continue this season, they could be in trouble, too.
Final Score: Arizona 31, Texas 24.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech V. South Carolina
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The Chick-Fil-A bowl pits the ACC's runner up against the fourth-best SEC team.
Why Virginia Tech is Here: The Hokies got off to a rough start in 2010, going 1-2 in their first three games. Since then, Virginia Tech has gone 4-0 and climbed back into the polls, behind senior quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Now, if only the defense could get some consistency, they'd be set.
Why South Carolina is Here: The Gamecocks fall to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl despite their impressive upset of Alabama, mainly because they just can't keep it going. The inconsistency that has plagued South Carolina for years now reared its ugly head again, as they fell to Kentucky last weekend. But the Gamecocks have the talent to contend with anyone, and shouldn't finish lower than fourth.
How it Could Change: Virginia Tech could win the ACC, and South Carolina could wind up winning the SEC East. If one or both of those happen, this game will have a very different look to it.
Final Score: Virginia Tech 21, South Carolina 17.
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin V. LSU
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The Outback Bowl has historically been one of the better non-BCS games of the bowl season. It pits the third-ranked Big 10 team against the third or fourth-best SEC team.
Why LSU is Here: Sure, the Tigers are 7-0. But anyone who's watched them this year has seen them winning by the slimmest of margins. Soon, fate is going to catch up to Les Miles and LSU, and when it does, they'll fall out of the SEC title tilt. Still, this team has talent, and shouldn't fall too far in the standings.
Why Wisconsin is Here: The Badgers used their balanced offense to knock off Ohio State last week, but for all their strength, Wisconsin's not without issues. They struggle to win games away from Camp Randall Stadium, evidenced by their loss to Michigan State. Still, the offense and defense are both excellent, and the Badgers can beat anyone at any time.
How it Could Change: Wisconsin's still alive in the Big 10 title hunt, and LSU has yet to lose this season. Both could go much higher than the Outback.
Final Score: Wisconsin 24, LSU 21.
Capital One Bowl: Iowa V. Auburn
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The Capital One Bowl has turned into one of college football's best non-BCS bowls. It pits the second runners up in both the SEC and the Big Ten against one another, and promises to be a classic once more this season.
Why Auburn is Here: Can the Tigers hold on in the SEC? Given the strength of the league, it seems unlikely. Still, quarterback Cam Newton and Auburn are undefeated, and look like legit contenders, currently ranked fourth in the BCS standings.
Why Iowa is Here: The Hawkeyes missed out on their BCS bid when the Buckeyes fell last week. This team is excellent, and the offense is balanced behind quarterback Ricky Stanzi and running back Adam Robinson.
How it Could Change: With the schedules both teams have left in 2010, they could each still win their conference or finish lower in the bowl bid standings.
Final Score: Iowa 31, Auburn 28.
Rose Bowl: Stanford V. Ohio State
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The Granddaddy of Them All, the Rose Bowl, pits the Big Ten and Pac-10 champs against one another. It's the most historic bowl game of any on this list, and has seen it's fair share of fantastic finishes.
Why Ohio State is Here: The Buckeyes knocked themselves out of the BCS title hunt with their loss to Wisconsin, but they're still the favorite to take the Big Ten title. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor has been strong all season, and the defense is as good as ever.
Why Stanford is Here: The Cardinal should be good enough to finish second in the Pac-10, behind quarterback Andrew Luck and a defense that is much better than the one on display against Oregon.
How it Could Change: If Oregon loses this year, Stanford will get knocked down a bowl spot, while Ohio State is far from a lock for the Big Ten title.
Final Score: Stanford 28, Ohio State 21.
Discover Orange Bowl: Florida State V. TCU
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The Orange Bowl pits the ACC champ against an at-large BCS team.
Why TCU is Here: Sadly, the Horned Frogs won't jump the top three teams in the title race quite yet. They have talent offensively and defensively, but could well get stuck in a logjam at the top.
Why Florida State is Here: Other than their loss to Oklahoma, the Seminoles have looked awfully good in 2010, under new head coach Jimbo Fisher. Still, that loss dooms Florida State to staying outside the national title picture.
How it Could Change: Florida State can't get much better than this, but they can get worse, should they stumble down the stretch. If TCU wins out, and a couple teams ahead of them lose, they could be in the title game.
Final Score: TCU 35, Florida State 14.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma V. West Virginia
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The Fiesta Bowl has been one of the most thrilling games in the BCS since the series began in 1998. It pits the Big 12 champ against an at large bid, or the Big East Champ.
Why Oklahoma is Here: The Sooners are currently the top-ranked school in the BCS, but they've got a tricky schedule down the stretch. If quarterback Landry Jones, running back DeMarco Murray and the rest of the Oklahoma offense cane keep rolling, this might not be their landing place. But the Sooners have played some inferior opponents soft, proving they're vulnerable to an upset.
Why West Virginia is Here: The Mountaineers should thank their lucky stars that they're still in the BCS, so winning the crappy Big East will get them into a BCS game. They're good, but not that good.
How it Could Change: Cincinnati could easily take West Virginia's spot in the BCS game, but the Mountaineers don't have what it takes to contend for the BCS crown this season. Oklahoma could go to the title game, but I don't see them finishing much lower than this.
Final Score: Oklahoma 42, West Virginia 21.
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama V. Utah
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The Sugar Bowl has been a landing point for those who miss the title game by thismuch in years past. This year, the SEC champs take on an at-large team.
Why Utah is Here: Other than their clash with TCU, the Utes should run the table. With contenders dropping like flies, they could sneak into the BCS in an at-large bid. They've got an excellent team, but under normal circumstances, they'd just miss the BCS.
Why Alabama is Here: The Crimson Tide might have blown their chance to repeat as BCS champs this season, when they fell to the Gamecocks. They've got a brutal schedule, but the lack of a tough opponent in the SEC title game is going to hurt them.
How it Could Change: 'Bama could still go up or down the bowl totem pole, while the Utes can only sink, unless they knock off TCU.
Final Score: Alabama 28, Utah 20.
BCS Title Game: Oregon V. Boise State
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The one you've been waiting for. Number one versus number two in the BCS. This one's for all the marbles.
Why Oregon is Here: The Ducks have looked unstoppable in 2010, offensively and defensively. If Stanford couldn't beat them, does anyone else on their schedule stand a chance?
Why Boise State is Here: The Broncos are one of the best teams in football. Deal with it. Their offense is explosive, their defense is excellent, and they did all they could in non-conference play, knocking off a pair of opponents who were either ranked then, or have since become ranked.
How it Could Change: If either team loses, we'll have someone else in this game.
Final Score: Boise State 24, Oregon 21.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
