What If College Football Held Playoffs Next Week?
The first BCS Standings are out for the 2010 season. As expected, in light of several key upsets over the weekend, it’s a bit interesting.
So, now the discussion will get really heated and the debate will be fierce. Was the BCS even remotely right? Who got the shaft? Who got more love than they deserve?
Of course, at this point, it’s all subjective. There’s still a lot of football to play, and there’s more than just “a good chance” that these standings will change dramatically over the remainder of the season.
Just for giggles though, I can’t help but ponder: what if there were a playoff? To be more precise; what if the season ended Saturday and the playoffs started this coming weekend?
Let’s run it down.
Here’s the layout:
The tournament has eight seeds, based on the BCS standings, but not necessarily in order of the top eight.
The six BCS AQ conferences send their champion to the tournament. Since champs haven’t been crowned yet, let’s go with the leading team of the moment.
There will also be two “at-large” positions available, to be filled by the top two in the BCS standings that aren’t already in the tournament by way of being a BCS conference champion.
Once the eight teams have been chosen, they will be seeded according to BCS standing.
So, with that layout as the ground work for the tournament, what might it look like and who might win?
ROUND 1: No. 1 Seed Oklahoma Vs. No. 8 Seed Florida State
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Here's where playoff opponents can get their first licks in. What happens if some of the Automatic Qualifier conferences don't have a worthy champion?
That could be the case, as it stands right now.
While I don't remotely agree that Oklahoma is deserving of the No.1 spot, they're more deserving of being in a playoff than (No. 17 in the current BCS standings) Florida State. However, the Seminoles are the highest rated team from the ACC.
So, by default, the Seminoles get a shot at the crystal football. This is all for giggles remember, so no need to bite my head off over this. It's just a "what if" scenario, and this is how it might look. If you don't like it, petition the BCS to stay away from a playoff system, because there's no other scenario I've seen that makes any sense either.
Anyway, in this mock playoff, Oklahoma would take on the Seminoles to kick off the first-round of playoffs. Florida State had a huge 45-17 win over an explosive Miami (FL) team, but were also embarrassed 17-47 against Oklahoma.
The rest of Florida State's opponents have nice names (like Boston College, and BYU), and certainly they've handled business, but those opponents also haven't proven much this year. BYU isn't the BYU that was a BCS buster a few years ago and BC probably isn't an ACC power this year.
Given how emotional the Miami-Florida State rivalry is, can we really say that the Seminoles are capable of hanging with a top notch program like Oklahoma? They couldn't do it the first time around, so I wouldn't expect them to be able to this time either.
I think Florida State could make this really interesting, but Oklahoma should come out unscathed against a team that hasn't had a true signature win this year.
ROUND 1: No. 2 Seed Oregon Vs No. 7 Seed West Virginia
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Once again, here's another opportunity to showcase why a playoff might be a bad idea. Does anyone believe that West Virginia should get a shot at a National Championship over LSU, Alabama or Utah? I sure don't.
However, would it be any more fair to have Auburn, LSU and Alabama—all from the SEC—all in a playoff? The SEC might be the best conference in America, but does that really mean that they deserve three shots out of eight at the Coaches Trophy? I don't think so.
And so, West Virginia gets a shot at the biggest glory of them all.
The Mountaineers looked pretty good in wins over Coastal Carolina, Maryland,UNLV and South Florida. They weren't embarrassed in a 20-14 loss on the road against undefeated LSU, either. However, they did have trouble putting away Marshall on the road, squeaking out a 24-21 win.
Oregon clobbered New Mexico, Tennessee and Portland State. They also got quality wins at Arizona State, against Stanford and at Washington State. No one has really challenged the Ducks yet this year.
Could West Virginia be the team to play Duck hunt and put up a high score? It's doubtful. Oregon has arguably the best offense in the nation, and their defense isn't too bad, either.
ROUND 1: No. 3 Seed Boise State Vs No. 6 Seed Michigan State
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This is the first truly quality match of the mock playoffs. Boise State enters the first BCS standings at No. 3 while Michigan State comes in at No. 7. By virtue of LSU missing out on the SEC bid, the Spartans bump up a spot in the seeding and represent the Big Ten, while Boise State gets the first at-large bid.
You can argue against the Broncos all you want, but they truly are the top rated team that couldn't get in as a conference champion (until such time as their new conference, the Mountain West, gets an AQ bid).
The Broncos opened with a tough neutral site win over Virginia Tech (which is looking better than it did), then took care of Oregon State two weeks later. They've manhandled everyone else on their schedule. While that schedule might be fairly weak, they've not just won those games; they've dominated them.
Michigan State sneaked by Notre Dame 34-31 in Week 3, but have won every other game more convincingly. Among those games was a 10-point victory over No. 13 Wisconsin—who just unseated former No. 1 Ohio State.
This is a tougher one to predict. Honestly.
Boise State brings power on both sides of the ball and is accustomed to playing against straight forward teams. It's not unrealistic to believe that they would give the Spartan offense a hard time. At the same time, they like to pull out every trick in the book, whether things are going well otherwise or not. Michigan State would have to be on their toes to get the win.
Just to play Devil's Advocate, I'll pick Boise State to pull out a couple of trick plays to win this one and ride into Round 2 on a high note.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
ROUND 1: No. 4 Seed Auburn Vs No. 5 Seed TCU
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This is another interesting matchup.
Representing the SEC is Auburn. The Tigers are currently No. 4 in the BCS Standings and are the top SEC team to be represented. It hasn't been often in the last few years that the SEC hasn't held one of the top two spots.
TCU is also in uncharted territory. The Horned Frogs have been right there with Boise State in putting together fantastic seasons, only to be locked out of the big dance when January rolls around.
Auburn is 7-0 and boasts wins over three ranked teams. They slipped by Mississippi State 17-14; beat South Carolina (who knocked off Alabama) 35-27; and out-gunned Arkansas 65-43. They had a narrow escape against Kentucky, but that doesn't look quite so bad considering the Wildcats knocked off South Carolina this past weekend.
The Tigers are putting up an astounding 40.7 points per game. They are however, allowing 24.4 points per game. While that's a nice spread, it's a little skewed considering they destroyed Louisiana-Monroe 52-3, and held Mississippi State to just 14 points.
The Horned Frogs put Oregon State away 30-21 in their opener and have pretty well dominated everyone else. SMU was the closest "other" opponent, and they could only get within 17 points of the Frogs.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if TCU dramatically slowed down the Tiger offense. The Horned Frog defense isn't something to take lightly.
Combine that with a relatively suspect Tiger defense, and it's enough for me to continue playing DA and go with TCU for the upset.
ROUND 2: No. 1 Seed Oklahoma Vs No. 5 Seed TCU
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Now's where the fun could really begin. Assuming my way-out-there (but not always so stupid) picks for the first-round happened, the fat gets trimmed a little further in the semi-final round.
Oklahoma, fresh off their victory over Virginia Tech face off against the potent defense of TCU.
Oklahoma's scoring offense is tied for 17th in the nation. TCU's scoring defense is No. 1 in the nation, allowing only 9.3 points per game.
So now the argument about quality of competition really heats up. Are Oklahoma's stats more accurate considering they've faced Florida State and Texas? Consider that those stats are also reflective of getting to play teams like Utah State and Iowa State.
What about TCU's defensive stats, considering they have shutouts against teams like Colorado State and Wyoming? They also held a weaker-than-the-past BYU team to only a field goal. Do Oregon State and SMU help temper those numbers a litlte?
TCU hasn't really faced anyone like Oklahoma this year. The Frogs are a tough team, without a doubt, but all stats are just a little skewed right now, and I think TCU's are a bit more skewed than Oklahoma's.
However, Oklahoma may not have faced a team quite like TCU either. I'm not sold that Oklahoma is really the best team in the nation at this point, and I'll show it here.
TCU prevails in a low scoring affair to knock off the No. 1 team in America.
ROUND 2: No. 2 Seed Oregon Vs. No. 3 Seed Boise State
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In my opinion, this is the best match of the entire playoffs to date. Oregon brings the No. 1 scoring offense (54.3 points per game) to the table against the No. 3 scoring defense (12.3 points per game) in the nation.
I know it's cliche, but what the heck: it's the unstoppable force against the immovable object. Who wins?
I'd happily say that Boise State represents the toughest defense Oregon has faced to this point in the season. It would likely be way too much to ask of them to put up 54 points against this Bronco bunch.
However, they are unquestionably the most prolific offense Boise State has had to face in 2010. Oregon has more tools than at their disposal than Lowe's or Home Depot.
I'd look for Boise State to make the game really interesting for a while, but as the fourth quarter rolled around, Oregon should be up by around ten and would likely maintain at the very least.
Boise State could make the playoffs really interesting, but I don't see them running the table.
Championship Game: No. 2 Seed Oregon Vs. No.5 Seed TCU
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So, the mock playoff comes down to this. On the one side is the most prolific, No. 1 rated offense in the nation. On the other is the stingiest, No. 1 rated defense in America.
Both teams have weathered two rounds of fierce competition to get to the final game. Along the way, they have disposed of Oklahoma, Boise State, Auburn, Michigan State, West Virginia and Virginia Tech. Well...they haven't beaten all of those teams, but you know what I mean.
The SEC, Big Ten, Big East, ACC and Big 12 have all lost their hope of hosting the Coach's Trophy.
If Oregon thought Boise State's defense was tough, TCU will show them a thing or two. If TCU thought Auburn or Oklahoma were tough to stop, Oregon will introduce them to something entirely different.
So, what about Oregon's scoring defense as opposed to TCU's scoring offense?
Oregon has allowed an average of just 16.3 points per game this year (16th in the nation). TCU has averaged scoring 40.1 points per game (seventh in the nation).
Could that be the difference? Could TCU be a more balanced team than Oregon? Yes and no.
TCU may be more balanced than Oregon but so is Boise State—to a degree. It doesn't change the fact that Oregon's offense is something to behold and they would score points against TCU's defense.
This could be an epic battle...truly.
Since this is all for fun and argument anyway, I'd say at this point that Oregon is in better position to come away with the win than TCU is.
Of course, as the season goes on, this could (and will) all change. But it's fun to think about what might be, based on the first-round of BCS standings.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
