Iowa Football: Reevaluating the Hawkeyes' BCS Bowl Hopes
With Iowa's 38-28 win over the Michigan Wolverines Saturday, the Hawkeyes find themselves in the driver's seat to win the Big Ten title as well as gaining a BCS bowl bid.
However, in order to get to Pasadena—or Miami, or New Orleans or Glendale—they have a number of obstacles on the road ahead of them.
The first thing to consider is that essentially, the Big Ten is currently made of up of two tiers. There are the teams that still have a realistic shot at a BCS bowl, and those that don't. The first group is made up of Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. The second group is everybody else.
I do realize that mathematically, Northwestern and Purdue are still very much in the picture, but after all, NU lost to Purdue. Moreover, Purdue is...well, Purdue, and I admittedly don't give either of them much hope of beating Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin (Purdue doesn't play Iowa, and Northwestern doesn't play Ohio State).
On the other hand, I do think Northwestern has a very realistic shot of upsetting at least one of those teams. Not so much in the case of the Boilers.
As for the second tier of teams, I realize that any one of them are capable of upsetting any of their future opponents, including and especially Iowa. Nevertheless, whichever team(s) rises to the top of the conference and gets the Big Ten's automatic bowl bid as well as their probable at-large bid simply has to beat those lower-tier teams. It is that simple.
If the team in question can't or doesn't beat those lower-tier teams, it is unlikely they will be taken seriously as a BCS bowl team. That does not minimize the possibility that Northwestern, Illinois or Indiana could pull an upset. It just means that if one of the upper-tier teams loses to a lower-tier team, in all likelihood, said team is out of the BCS bowl picture.
Iowa's Remaining Schedule
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This brings me to Iowa.
The Hawkeyes' remaining schedule is as follows: Wisconsin, Michigan State, at Indiana, at Northwestern, Ohio State, and at Minnesota.
I am not writing off the games against the Hoosiers, the Gophers, and especially the Wildcats as foregone conclusions. On the other hand, if Iowa loses any one of those games, they are out of the BCS bowl picture. In effect, for the sake of consideration of Iowa's BCS hopes, I will treat those games as assumed wins.
The good news about the schedule is that the road to Pasadena goes through Iowa City. Literally.
Wisconsin, MSU, and OSU all have to travel to Kinnick.
The further good news is that along with MSU, Iowa has its BCS hopes in their own hands, as both Wisconsin and OSU already have a conference loss.
The bad news is that Iowa is the only team that still has to play all three upper-tier opponents. Wisconsin has already met MSU and OSU. Furthermore, MSU and OSU don't play each other this season.
Therefore, for the final six games of the season, it could fairly be said that of the top four teams, Iowa has the toughest remaining schedule.
The Obvious
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If Iowa wins out, it is going to the Rose Bowl. That is in no way arguable.
If Iowa loses more than one game, regardless who beats it, the Hawkeyes are out of the BCS bowl picture.
I would go so far as to argue that as long as Iowa wins at least three more games, it will receive a bid to play in the Gator Bowl or the Outback Bowl, both on January 1.
If the Hawkeyes win at least four more games, I think they will be the odds-on favorite to receive a bid to play in the Capital One Bowl on New Year's Day.
Of course, that would depend on how the other top-tier teams do, as the Cap One Bowl historically remains very true to the Big Ten standings. This is to be differentiated from most of the other Big Ten bowls, which tend to factor in prospective teams' traveling bases considerably more heavily.
Nonetheless, if Iowa has four more wins, it is likely that two of the top-tier teams will receive BCS bowl bids. Moreover, Iowa would have beaten the other top-tier team. Thus, with nine wins and a 6-2 conference record, the Cap One would probably come calling.
If Iowa wins two more games, then it will probably be looking at the Insight Bowl, with a fair chance at the Gator.
If Iowa wins only one more game, then I will probably start drinking heavily.
Wisconsin
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Wisconsin is 2-1 in the Big Ten, with a loss to Michigan State. Their overall record is 6-1. They come to Iowa City next week.
Their remaining schedule is as follows: at Iowa, bye week, at Purdue, Indiana, at Michigan, Northwestern.
Of those lower-tier teams, I think any of their three final opponents could realistically upset Bucky. In fact, I'd almost be surprised if one of them didn't. Despite UW's huge and impressive win over OSU, I am still not a believer.
Nevertheless, this is the prospective situation: Iowa loses to UW, but beats MSU and OSU. Meanwhile, the Badgers sweep the remainder of their schedule. It is also assumed that MSU and OSU win the rest of their games other than their game against Iowa.
Where does that leave the Hawkeyes' BCS bowl hopes?
It would leave a three-way tie for the Big Ten title. Iowa, MSU, and Wisconsin would all be 6-1. Based on the Big Ten rules for determining who goes to the Rose Bowl, Michigan State would probably get the conference bid. Either way, Iowa would definitely be out.
This would leave a 10-2 Iowa and an 11-1 Wisconsin as the at-large candidates for the other BCS bowls. Also, a 10-2 Ohio State would probably be in the mix, despite having lost to both the Hawks and the Badgers.
In that scenario, I think the Badgers would get the BCS bid 100 percent of the time.
First of all, Wisky would have the head-to-head victory. Secondly, in terms of national perception—and thus TV appeal—Iowa and Wisconsin are about the same.
Finally, Wisconsin has a history of and reputation for traveling just as well as Iowa's vaunted fan base.
In that scenario, MSU would go to the Rose, Wisconsin to another BCS bowl, and Iowa would go to the Cap One. There would also be a possibility for the Outback if the Cap One were to choose OSU and their national prestige over the Hawks' better conference record and head-to-head victory.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Michigan State
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Michigan State is 3-0 in the Big Ten and 7-0 overall. Their remaining Big Ten schedule includes games at Northwestern, at Iowa, Minnesota (then a bye week), Purdue, and at Penn State.
While I think Northwestern and Penn State will have decent chances at pulling an upset, I believe that the only team that truly stands between MSU and an undefeated season is Iowa. If the Spartans beat the Hawkeyes, I think they will finish the season at 12-0. I don't know whether that would put them in the national championship game.
In effect, what would happen if Iowa loses to Michigan State, but beats Wisconsin and Ohio State?
First of all, MSU would be the Big Ten champion and get an automatic bid to the BCS. For the sake of argument, let's say that bid is to the national championship game.
That would leave a 10-2 Iowa, a 10-2 OSU, and a 10-2 Wisconsin in the pool for an at-large BCS bid.
The Hawks would have the head-to-head bragging rights over both teams. Furthermore, Iowa would have a better conference record than both teams.
In most cases, Wisconsin and Iowa are a wash. Both travel well and both have a similar national perception and appeal. At that point, it would come down to how much the conference record and head-to-head mattered, which team—if any—the Big Ten went to bat for, as well as some degree of randomness.
As for Iowa against OSU, Iowa would lose that more often than not. Both fan bases travel well, but Ohio State has national recognition that few, and certainly not Iowa, can rival. However, the conference record and head-to-head might play a part.
Also, the Big Ten, in an effort to make the conference look like it's more than just Ohio State, might push for Iowa.
In the above scenario, MSU would get the automatic BCS bid and probably the national championship game. Meanwhile, I think Iowa would have a 75 percent shot at getting an at-large BCS bid, though that bid would probably not be to the Rose Bowl.
If they didn't get the BCS bid, I think Iowa would be a shoo-in for the Cap One.
Ohio State
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Ohio State is 2-1 in the Big Ten, with an overall record of 6-1. Their lone loss was to the Wisconsin Badgers. Their remaining schedule is: Purdue, at Minnesota, bye week, Penn State, at Iowa, and Michigan.
In my opinion, the only non-upper-tier team on OSU's remaining schedule that has a chance at the upset is Michigan. Outside of the Wolverines, Iowa is the only team with a shot at beating the Bucks. Of course, it remains to be seen who will be favored heading into that game.
Here's one scenario: Iowa loses to OSU, but beats both Wisconsin and MSU.
Under those circumstances, both Ohio State and Michigan State would be 11-1 and 7-1 in conference. At the same time, Iowa and Wisconsin would be 10-2, though Iowa would only have one conference loss, compared to Wisconsin's two.
That would leave a three-way tie for the conference championship between OSU, MSU, and Iowa. In that scenario, according to Big Ten rules, Michigan State would probably get the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl, due to having a higher BCS ranking. At the very least, once again, with an overall record of 10-2, Iowa would be out.
This would leave 11-1 OSU, and 10-2 Iowa and Wisconsin in the at-large BCS pool.
In that case, OSU gets the BCS bid 100 percent of the time. Iowa cannot compete with a head-to-head loss and Ohio State's historical cache.
If OSU got the Rose bid over MSU, then I still think an 11-1 Spartans, even with a loss to Iowa, would get the at-large. At the very least, I think they would have an 85 percent chance of getting it.
Not only would they have a stronger overall record, but this season, I think the Big Ten would push for them to get the bid. Iowa got the Orange Bowl bid last year and in 2002, while MSU has never received a BCS bowl bid.
Iowa's only chance at getting the bid over the Spartans would be their history of being a much stronger traveling fan base.
Assuming Iowa didn't get the BCS bid, I think the Cap One would pick Iowa over Wisconsin 100 percent of the time. This is due to the Hawks' better conference record, head-to-head results, and the fact that the Cap One has not had Iowa since 2004. They have hosted Wisconsin twice since then.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
