BCS: Anatomy of the College Football Upset

Top-seeded Alabama’s upset last Saturday to 19th ranked South Carolina epitomized the unpredictability and excitement that college football offers its fans on a weekly basis. 

Going into the weekend, most pundits had said that the Crimson Tide had separated itself from the rest of the SEC and other teams in the FBS, and had solidified a spot in the BCS Championship game. 

So then what happened this past Saturday?

I say the Tide were victims of a classic trap game: Coming off a huge win over Florida last week, basically obliterating all betting lines, they just did not get up for their game to go on the road against the ol' ball coach. 

This is a scenario that many top-ranked teams find themselves in, and if Ohio State and Oregon want to make sure they are not the next team to fall victim to the dreaded upset after their bye weeks, then they might want to read on.

Since the 2006 college football season, the "UPSET" has been en vogue amongst the Top 25 rankings, giving hope to all underdogs and smaller programs, only having them achieve glory and fall victim the next week in a vicious cycle.

With the current Bowl Championship Series selecting the top two teams to play in the championship game, programs such as Boise St., TCU, Utah and Hawaii have to run the table and have some of the higher ranked BCS teams fall victim to the UPSET so that they have a chance at moving up the BCS rankings. 

In the 2009 season, there were the most upsets among the top 10 during the first four weeks of the season since 2006:

• In the 2006 season there were five top 10 teams to lose in the first four weeks
• In the 2007 and 2008 seasons there were four top 10 teams to lose in the first four weeks
• In the 2009 season there have been 10 top 10 teams to lose in the first four weeks

Analysis

So what is the reason for the increased frequency of this trend? I will try to break down the UPSET and what the variables that compose the UPSET that true college football fanatics live every Saturday for are.

The Preseason Hype Upset

This is when the increased focus on preseason rankings and the hype and publicity around certain programs give players a certain high where they cannot focus on the task at hand in executing their game plan.

Example: 2009 Ole Miss. The Rebels started off the season ranked No. 4 in the AP with talks of a BCS bowl game and a Heisman year for QB Jevan Snead. Enter South Carolina and a Thursday night upset to further prove that pickers should not rely too much on preseason hype and rankings.

The Trap Game

This is when a team overlooks certain factors, such as a certain player or not taking into consideration playing in a hostile environment. Teams can be subject to a trap game if they have just come off a big win and face a supposed underdog the next week.

Example: 2008 and 2009 USC Trojans. After coming off of big wins against Ohio State, the Trojans fell to underdogs in consecutive seasons, the Beavers of Oregon State in '08 and the Huskies of Washington in '09.

The Hangover Upset

This could be a component of the trap game. This is when a highly ranked team has come off either a tough game (2 OT or more), a highly-publicized win or had a win where they overcame a deficiency only to fall flat the next week.

Example: 2009 Cal Bears. The Bears traveled to Minnesota with questions of their ability to win on the road after they were exposed during the 2008 season. After a huge road win with Jahvid Best running for five TDs, the Bears traveled to Autzen as a seven point favorite...and fell to the Oregon Ducks 42-9.

The No Explanation Upset

Really, sometimes there is no explanation. It is college football, the greatest sport there is and sometimes there is no explanation. One team just wants it more than the other.

Example: 2007 Michigan Wolverines. Two words: Appalachian State. 'Nuff said.

Conclusion

While the BCS may expose the inequities in college football, the UPSET is the equalizer that all mid-majors and FCS teams play for.

The reality is, that for some teams, playing the No. 7 or No. 3 ranked team is the biggest game of the season, or in the history of the program, and they will make the most of it.

These players are playing for the pride of the university, city, state, and all of the crazy students and alumni that make the Saturday game day atmosphere one of the most anticipated events in sports.

So pull out that "Statue of Liberty" or "hook and lateral," all you cupcakes, you are a 21-point underdog, and Da Kahuna likes your chances.