Iowa-Michigan: What Each Team Needs To Do to Win and What Will Happen

About a month-and-a-half ago, Iowa was a preseason top ten team with National Championship aspirations.  Meanwhile, Michigan was clinging tightly to the same line we heard a year before: “we’ll be better this year”. 

Iowa’s National Title hopes may have gone up in smoke when they dropped a heartbreaker to Arizona, but they’re still a solid top 25 team.  And Michigan really is better than they were a year ago; much better than they were two years ago. 

This weekend, the two teams go head-to-head in the Big House.  Iowa will be fighting for a shot at the conference title.  Michigan is still fighting for respect, and knocking off a team like Iowa would go a long way toward gaining it.

What does each team need to do to come out victorious on Saturday?

When Michigan has the ball

I’m not a big fan of the “quarterback-by-committee” approach, but I would employ it here.  Last year, in Iowa City, Tate Forcier put up 28 points on the Hawkeyes.  He knows how to move the ball against an Iowa defense.

Denard Robinson is as talented an athlete as there is anywhere in America.  I believe that.  However, if Iowa has only to plan for him, they can take a page from Michigan State’s book and slow him down over the course of four quarters.

If the Hawkeyes have to contend with Robinson’s legs (and arm) on one series, then change gears to deal with Forcier on the next, they may never get into a rhythm that will be consistently successful.

Iowa’s defense is as stout as you’ll find anywhere, including Tuscaloosa.  They haven’t given up a rushing touchdown yet this year and have the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation.  Michigan needs to be patient against that defense, and just keep working on taking the yardage they can get, then finishing off drives however possible.

Iowa’s defense meanwhile, needs to play smart, assignment football.  The line can’t get too hung up on shutting down Robinson in the backfield.  That’s not easy to do and, if he gets past the line with a step to move, he’s gone.  They need to stay home, cover their lanes, and keep “Shoelace” from breaking off the big yards.

Along with that, the Hawkeyes need to continue to play solid fundamentally.  They need to make sure they’re wrapping up their tackles and keeping their eyes on the ball carrier.  Robinson will try with all of his might to make them miss, so they’ve got to make sure they’re keeping him in their sights.

Iowa’s secondary also can’t go to sleep on them.  Robinson isn’t the most prolific passer in the league (Michigan is ranked 7^th in the Big Ten), but he can still throw the ball.  If Forcier does see action, he’s a very dangerous quarterback in his own right. 

It’s all about limiting the big plays.  Iowa needs to keep every play in front of them and force Robinson into throwing passes he really doesn’t want to throw (i.e. third and long situations).

When Iowa has the ball

Balance is the key for Iowa as well.  Michigan’s defense is suspect at every level.  Their tackling is horrendous and their pass defense is ranked dead last in the conference. 

Adam Robinson shouldn’t necessarily expect a monster day, but he shouldn’t find a brick wall either.  His tendency toward giving a little “extra effort” should pay off well against a defense that appears a little unwilling to wrap up and stick with their tackles.

Ricky Stanzi just has to be smart.  Michigan’s pass defense isn’t great (as mentioned before), but that doesn’t mean he can relapse back into old habits. 

Michigan’s defense has to start playing fundamentally sound defense.  It doesn’t matter how fast you are or how fancy your schemes are if you’re not wrapping up tackles and bringing people down.

Iowa will use Robinson to establish the run, then use play-action to set up passes.  They’re really a fairly straight forward team.  They don’t use gimmicks.  They’ll just come straight at the Wolverines and dare them to stop the attack.

Slowing down Robinson will only open up the pass play of Stanzi.  It’s still a worthy goal, but Michigan can’t focus just on one aspect of Iowa’s offense. 

Michigan’s defense will have their hands full as they face one of the more balanced attacks in the Big Ten.

Special Teams

Iowa has to be very cognizant of their special teams play.  Michigan doesn’t necessarily have the most dangerous kick returners (ranked 8^th in the conference), but Iowa ranks 10^th in the conference in kickoff return yards allowed. 

With Denard Robinson being as dangerous as he is, the Hawkeyes can’t afford to constantly give Michigan good field position. 

The good news for Iowa fans is that the Hawkeyes are second in the conference in punt return yardage while Michigan is only 8^th in punt return yards allowed (Iowa is 3^rd in yards allowed). 

Michigan also has to be careful.  The Hawkeyes are second in the conference in punt return yards and fourth in kick return yards.  The Wolverines however, lead the conference in yards allowed on kickoff returns.  They can stretch Iowa’s distance to the end zone and greatly help their defense with solid special teams play.

What will happen?

I’m a big proponent of looking at the head-to-head match-ups, rather than looking at the overall view of each team. 

With that in mind, I see Iowa’s offense moving the ball fairly consistently and easily against a soft Michigan defense.  Adam Robinson could (and maybe should) easily have a 100 yard day on the ground.  Ricky Stanzi meanwhile, should find little trouble in connecting with his talented receivers and tight ends.

Michigan won’t be shut down quite as easily as they were by Michigan State.  The Hawkeyes have a better defense than the Spartans, in my opinion, but the Wolverines will likely have learned a lot from last week.

Denard Robinson will burn the Hawkeyes for a couple of big plays, but Iowa will respond.  It will begin to look like a shoot-out is in order, but don’t get fooled.  It’s temporary.

Through the second half of the game, Iowa will find the right key to shutting down Robinson and limiting Michigan’s offense.  Meanwhile, Iowa’s offense will continue to find success.

In the end, look for Iowa to win this game by at least 14 points on the back of a balanced offense and stingy defense.