MLB Championship Series Predictions

With all the division series finally squared away, we can look forward to both league championships starting this Friday and Saturday. Even I was surprised by the success of my predictions; while I was wrong about the series length I was able to pick the correct winner in each division series. With no further adieu, here are my picks for the ALCS & NLCS.

American League Championship Series

New York Yankees Vs Texas Rangers (home field advantage)

What’s there to say about the Yankees? They came into their division series against the Twins and took care of business. Their pitching staff pitched well and their offense also came to play. Andy Petite and Phil Hughes were dominant and had better performances than their Cy Young candidate teammate, C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia took the Twins’ early blows and was able to pitch well enough to hang in there and earn the win.Petite and Hughes combined for 14 innings and only 2 earned runs (both coming off of Petite). When your starting pitching plays that well, there is no need for extravagant run support. But the Yankees were able to do that as well. They had 33 hits and 17 runs in the 3 game sweep of the Twins and every hitter on the roster was able to be successful in terms of getting on base. This is the scary thing about the Yankees, they have shut-down pitching and are capable to score 5 runs any given night.

The Rangers on the other hand were an interesting case. In the first two games, which were played in Tampa Bay, the Rangers were absolutely dominant. Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson both pitched extremely well and there was no shortage of offense as the Rangers won 5-1 and 6-0 in Tampa Bay. The Rangers were in great position to go for the kill and possibly sweep the Rays as they headed home for game 3.  But strangely the Rangers looked like a completely different team in games 3 and 4 and ended up losing both of them. The series went back to Tampa Bay and the Rangers put Cliff Lee on the mound, and he simply did what an ace is expected to do. He shut them down and the Rangers won the game 5-1 and the series 3-2. The Rangers have great pitchers in their 1 and 2 spots, but after that they’re not as impressive. But that offense with Hamilton, Guerrero, Kinsler, and Cruz is very scary and is able to put up runs. But in order to contend with the Yankees, AL MVP favorite Josh Hamilton is going to need to play better: 2 for 18 with 6 strikeouts will not cut it.

Can the Yankees win the ALCS for a 2nd straight year? Picture courtesy of tonyblog.net

The Rangers have surprised many around the league this season. Vladimir Guerrero has come back to life after a miserable 2009 season in Anaheim, Josh Hamilton has emerged as an elite player, Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler have done their part to provide some offensive firepower, C.J. Wilson has been a great pitcher all season long, Neftali Perez has become a great closer in just his rookie season, and the acquisition of Cliff Lee gave the Rangers their much needed ace. But without a solid #3 or #4 pitcher, the Rangers will have troubles in games Lee or Wilson don’t start. The Ynakees pitching is better and so is their offense. Cano, Rodriguez, Jeter, Teixiera should be too much to handle for Ranger pitchers not named Lee, Wilson, and Perez. I expect this to be close and the winner will win in 6 or 7 games. I’m going to predict Yankees in 6.

NLCS

San Francisco Giants Vs. Philadelphia Phillies (home field advantage)

The Phillies may be the most talented team in the National League and they showcased that talent in their NLDS against the Reds. With a 3 man rotation featuring Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, the Phillies have one of the top pitching staffs in all of baseball and they are able to frustrate opposing batters any given game. Halladay pitched a no-hitter  in his 1st postseason appearance of his career and Hamels was just as impressive in the series clinching win as he pitched a complete game shutout. And lets not forget about their offense that has the ability to score runs in bunches. While they weren’t very explosive in the NLDS, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins have the ability to string consecutive hits together and hit the deep ball as well. But Howard and Werth striking out 5 times apiece in a 3 game series does not bode well for the Phillies offense.

The San Francisco easily have have the best 4 man starting rotation in all of baseball. That is quite an accomplishment for a group of starters that all made their first post-season start in the NLDS. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner combined for 28 innings pitched, 3 earned runs, 0.96 ERA, and 36 strikeouts in their series against the Braves. Not shabby right? And with a bullpen that had the second lowest ERA in all of baseball during the regular season there is no need to worry about giving up a whole lot of runs. There is no question that their pitching is excellent, but many critics doubt their offense is capable of putting up enough run support for the pitching staff. The Giants have struggled all season with scoring runs but there are a couple stats to consider. The Giants team batting average this season was .257, 15th in the MLB (the Phillies batted .260), and the Giants also hit 162 home runs which was 11th most in the MLB this past season (the Phillies had 166). When hot, the Giants are able to put up runs with the best of them. But can Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross, Pat Burell, Freddy Sanches, Andres Torres, and Juan Uribe be consistent enough to win 4 games in this series?

It's gonna take great performances from Lincecum (top), Posey (left), and Wilson (beard in the center) for the Giants to advance to the World Series

The Phillies have the experience, the swagger, and the home field advantage. They are the heavy favorite to take out the Giants and win the NL pennant. They’ve been here the past two seasons and are chomping at the bit to reach their 3rd straight World Series. Can they get it done? Or will the younger, inexperienced Giants pull off the upset and win their first NL pennant since 2002? Granted the Phillies may have the Cy Young Award winner in Roy Halladay and better power hitters with Howard and Werth. But the Giants have the better overall pitching staff featuring 4 great starters and one of the best closers in the game. The Giants have great strikeout pitchers in Lincecum and Sanchez and expect them to make Howard, Werth, Utley, and the rest of the Phillies roster swing and miss….a lot. With Lincecum and Sanches starting game 1 and 2, I expect the Giants to win at least 1, if not both, of the games in Philly en route to a series clinching win in game 6. The depth of the Giants rotation will allow Lincecum to pitch games 1 and 5, expect the Giants to win either one or both of these games and have the upperhand. The Giants are a good road team, exemplified by their game 3 and 4 wins in Atlanta during their NLDS, and I would not be surprised to see them go back to San Francisco up 2-0. The Phillies lack of depth at pitching will hurt them and force Halladay and the others to pitch on short rest. Plus their hitters are notorious for striking out (Howard had more strikeouts than hits this past season) so expect the Giants pitching to frustrate the Phillies hitters. But the Giants offense will need to step up as well. Torres, Uribe, and Huff need to be more patient at the plate ( 17 strikeouts between the 3) and work the pitching count. Ultimately, I think the Giants will get it done and win this series in 6.

This is just an opinion…so please Pardon My Bias.