Florida State's Next 30 Days Will Determine Success or Failure In 2010

As summer gives way to fall, the Florida State Seminoles find themselves right in the thick of a conference title race and in the heart of their ACC schedule.

FSU’s itinerary includes a gauntlet of eight consecutive ACC games, with five of them yet to be played.

Many marked the Miami game as the pinnacle of the schedule; the game which would prove to be Florida State’s toughest test.

Recent history has shown, though, that this FSU team needs to forget the win in Miami just as fast as it was achieved.  As daunting a task as that game seemed to be, and as big as the rivalry is, FSU has won four of the last six meetings between the two teams.

FSU’s perennial ACC stumbling blocks lie ahead in Boston College (this Saturday) and Clemson (November 13).  Notable ‘hiccup’ games also include tussles with upstart NC State (October 28; a Thursday night ESPN game) and North Carolina (November 6)—two teams who have shocked FSU in the past and won big against the Noles as underdogs.

Let’s take a look at these upcoming games and see what waits around the corner as FSU trudges toward a possible ACC Championship.

BOSTON COLLEGE.  In the midst of a down year, the BC Eagles come into this Saturday’s contest with a 2-3 record, but are winless in the ACC thus far.  Their conference games this year have both been blowouts: a 19-0 loss to Virginia Tech at home, and a 44-17 drubbing at NC State.

BC is in the midst of a three-game losing streak, with a heartbreaking loss at home to Notre Dame sandwiched in between the ACC losses. 

Boston College is a big, physical team, but their Achilles’ heel in 2010 has been a lack of offense.  In their three losses they’ve mustered only 20 points, while their opponents have scored 94.

The Eagles have employed two quarterbacks this season with limited success. The QB’s have combined for a little more than 900 yards, seven touchdowns and ten interceptions in five games.

The running backs have been abysmal, averaging an embarrassing 2.9 yards per carry, and have tallied only 450 yards and one TD this season.

BC’s big story has been the return of outside linebacker Mark Herzlich, the ACC’s 2008 Defensive Player of the Year. 

In ’09, BC had a dedication ceremony the night of the FSU game, as Herzlich spoke to the raucous crowd before kickoff. He told the BC faithful that he had beaten cancer, and would be returning to athletics. The rousing speech helped lead the Eagles to a 28-21 victory over a stunned Seminoles team.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE.  Amid the preseason fanfare of who’s who in the ACC, NC State found itself on the outside looking in.

Pundits around the country talked about apparent powerhouse Virginia Tech, and the return of dynastic forces FSU and Miami in the ACC roundup as the season kicked off.  North Carolina was also mentioned, but it seemed no one gave NC State a chance, even with the return of quarterback Russell Wilson.

Wilson racked up 3027 passing yards last season, and set an NCAA record with 389 pass attempts without an interception.  Some claimed it would be Miami’s Jacory Harris or FSU’s Christian Ponder who would end the 2010 season as the ACC’s top QB, but most in the media picked Russell Wilson as their pre-season favorite.

Wilson has already dazzled us this season. He’s compiled 1800 yards passing, 17 touchdowns and only six interceptions, and has led his team to a respectable 5-1 record.

The team’s only loss came two weeks ago at home against Virginia Tech 41-30, and Wilson had a great game despite the outcome.

In NC State’s toughest game, Russell Wilson threw for 362 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Lately, when these two teams meet it is a back-and-forth affair.  Last year, FSU edged out NC State 45-42 in a barn-burner in Tallahassee.  FSU’s Bert Reed scored the go-ahead touchdown with a minute to play in the game, as the two teams combined for more than 1100 yards of offense.

NORTH CAROLINA.  This game probably loomed larger before three Tarheel players were dismissed from the team.

North Carolina still sports a decent squad.  After starting the season 0-2, losing to two ranked teams (LSU and Georgia Tech) while a slew of players were suspended, Carolina has rattled off three straight wins.  Their last came at home against ACC rival Clemson 21-16.

The season started rough, but the Tarheel defense has come together, holding its last three opponents under 18 points.

Last year, FSU needed a miraculous rally to beat North Carolina on the road in a nationally televised Thursday night game.  Down 24-6 late in the third quarter and unable to run the ball, Florida State turned to it’s QB to turn the game around.

Touted as the best defense in the nation, Ponder torched the Tarheels for 400 yards and three touchdowns.  FSU scored 24 second half points and managed to pull out a late victory 30-27.

CLEMSON.   Last year the Clemson Tigers beat FSU 40-24.  The Noles led 24-21 at the end of three quarters, but Clemson would rally using multiple turnovers by Christian Ponder, and outscore the Noles 19-0 in the fourth quarter to win the game.

Dating back to 2005, Clemson is 4-1 against FSU, with FSU’s only recent win coming in 2008.

After a strong 2-0 start in which the Tigers beat up on two cupcake opponents, Clemson has hit the skids with a three game losing streak of their own, and are 0-2 in ACC play.  They’ve lost to both Miami and North Carolina in consecutive weeks.

Clemson still leans on their running attack despite the departure of C.J. Spiller, averaging 180 yards a game on the ground.

Apart from the numbers, Clemson seems to have FSU’s number lately. The Seminoles seem to succumb to Clemson’s late game heroics nearly every season much the way they used to do against Miami.

The Seminoles’ next four games are pivotal. A win in Miami was nice, but let’s face it: FSU went 2-2 last year against it’s next four opponents, and the two wins required late-game comebacks.

FSU’s problems with the ACC schedule haven’t been with the Canes. Much of the knock against the Noles recently has been its inability to beat the middle-tier teams. Those teams are staring FSU right in the face, awaiting their chances to beat FSU yet again.

The Seminoles are riding high right now after a big rivalry win, but they will need to turn a quick focus on the task at hand, which is a BC team that found a way to beat them last year.

More so than any time, the 2010 FSU season will be made or trashed over the next 30 days.  A loss to any of these four teams will relegate the Noles right back to “rebuilding” mode.  But four victories will ensure an FSU trip back to the ACC Championship game.

Let’s hope the coaching staff can sharpen the team’s focus and push the Seminoles through a perfect month.