2010 MLB Postseason, Part II

A few weeks ago before the end of the Major League Baseball regular season, I wrote a postseason preview and made some predictions. Now that the League Division Series is over (the Texas Rangers have just defeated the Tampa Bay Rays in game 5 of the ALDS), I believe it is time to look ahead to the League Championship Series, and perhaps back to my predictions.

The first thing I must address is my unfortunate pick of the Minnesota Twins to win the AL and reach the World Series.  I do apologize to Twins fans for possibly invoking the “kiss of death.”  But in retrospect, they may have had it coming for them already.  The Twins will have to wait another year to taste a playoff victory, and hope they don’t face the New York Yankees again. Minnesota was swept out of the 2010 postseason, and has lost its last 9 postseason games against the Yankees. Overall, the Twins are 2-17 against the Bronx Bombers in their last 19 games, including 2-12 against them in the playoffs. Since 2002, the Twins are 6-30 in Yankee Stadiums (old and new, including the postseason). Not to beat a dead horse, but Minnesota has been awful in the postseason the last 6 years. They’ve lost their last 12 playoff games since beating the Yankees in Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS. Guess I should have considered all of this before crowning them AL Champs.

Being without Justin Morneau really hurt the Twins’ offense, which got very little production from Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel, who combined to go 3-20 with no RBI in the series.  The Yankees outscored the Twins 17-7 in three games, helped by outstanding starting pitching and clutch hitting by Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, and Mark Teixeira. Phil Hughes pitched 7 shutout innings in Game 3, giving solid support to a playoff rotation that leads with 20-game winner C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, who turned in a strong performance in Game 2.  Out of the three starts, Sabathia’s was actually the least impressive.  Now, with the other ALDS going to 5 games, the Yankees will get rest and be prepared for the Texas Rangers, who will not be able to pitch Cliff Lee, their best pitcher and desired game 1 starter. Instead, C.J. Wilson will start game 1.

The Texas Rangers are celebrating their first postseason series win in franchise history, behind marvelous pitching by Cliff Lee. The Rangers face the Yankees in the ALCS. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

Speaking of the Rangers, their ALDS was hardly a breeze. The Rangers dominated games 1 and 2, outscoring the Rays 11-1 behind dominant pitching from Lee and Wilson. It was a totally different story in games 3 and 4.  In game 3, the Rangers looked to have a sweep locked up, winning 2-1 in the 8th. That was until the Rays’ bats woke up, scoring 5 runs in the last 2 innings to win and avoid elimination. Game 4 also resulted in a Tampa win, with the lineup getting 12 hits and scoring 5 runs. In games 3 and 4, the Rays outscored the Rangers 11-5. Game 5 was a pitching duel ultimately won by Lee – who went the distance and gave up just 1 run, striking out 11 – and the Rangers, who won their first ever postseason series. The Rangers didn’t look impressive to close out the series, almost letting it slip away.  The Yankees will be more rested, and will be able to start Sabathia in game 1 on Friday and Pettitte in game 2. I can see the series going to 6 or even 7 games, because the Rangers will be riding the emotion of winning their first playoff series, much like the 2008 Rays. However, in the end, experience and rest will outweigh momentum, and the Yanks will win the series.  My new AL pick: The New York Yankees.

In the National League, the story has been absolutely dominant pitching. The Philadelphia Phillies swept the Cincinnati Reds, led by outstanding pitching by Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, and an offense that took advantage of countless Reds miscues. Halladay, in his first ever postseason start, pitched a brilliant no-hitter in game 1, just the second playoff no-hitter in history, and the first since Don Larsen’s World Series perfect game in 1956. Roy had a special night, and looks to follow up his masterpiece in game 1 of the NLCS against the San Francisco Giants, opposite Tim Lincecum, who had a pretty amazing game 1 start as well.  ”The Freak” struck out 14 batters on his way to a 2-hit complete game shutout. The Giants defeated the Atlanta Braves in four games, all of which were decided by one run. Both starting pitchers for the Giants and Phillies had terrific playoff debuts, and the NLCS game 1 will feature maybe one of the most memorable postseason pitching matchups in recent history.

Cole Hamels' complete game shutout sealed the Phillies' sweep of the Reds and got them to a 3rd straight NLCS appearance. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Both these teams pose offensive threats as well, however. The Phillies weren’t as explosive in the NLDS as they proved to be in the last month of the regular season, but as we’ve seen all year, the Phils boast a lineup that can bust out at any moment in time. When you have players like Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez on your team, at any point, they can get hot and score a lot of runs.  One week, they could be in 1-0 games, the next, they’re putting up double digits on the scoreboard.  But strong starting pitching is a constant, and it is almost a guarantee now that Halladay, Roy Oswalt, or Hamels will pitch at least 7 or 8 innings in a game; in fact, all three may.  Oswalt was the only one of the H20 combo that didn’t have a stellar performance, as he was chased for runs early.  Hamels pitched almost as well as Lincecum and Halladay, striking out 9 in a 5-hit complete game shutout.

On the other side, the Giants have a dangerous lineup, with Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres, Pablo Sandoval, rookie of the year favorite Buster Posey, and former Phillie Pat Burrell.  Though the Giants haven’t been scoring a ton as of late, their pitching keeps run totals low, and they are able to win close games with the help of their shutdown closer, Brian Wilson. Lincecum isn’t their only dominant starter, either. Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and youngster Madison Bumgarner round out a postseason starting rotation that gave up just four runs in their four starts in the NLDS.

This NLCS may be a lot closer than most would expect.  The Phillies and Giants are two very similar teams who will give fans a little bit of everything to watch.  Excellent starting pitching, potent offenses, strong fan bases, and even wild hair (Brian Wilson, Jayson Werth, and Tim Lincecum).  Ultimately, playoff experience will give the Phillies the edge.  Home field advantage also helps, when 45,000 fans clad in red waving white towels pack Citizens Bank Park for games 1 and 2. The Phillies will win the series in 5. NL pick: Phillies

I’m still predicting the Phillies to win the World Series, but I won’t go into depth about that until later.  But as of right now, they are the best postseason team out there, and I don’t think anyone, including the Yankees, can beat them.

Now let’s review my picks from the post I wrote a few weeks ago. Of course, at the time I posted, the Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, and Reds were all obvious choices to earn playoff berths, so I’m not going to claim I predicted anything there. In fact, I actually was wrong in my AL East predictions, as the Rays won the division and the Yankees turned out to be the wild card.  However, I did predict a split between them in their last regular season series, which did in fact come true.  I also predicted the Baltimore Orioles would spoil Tampa’s chances at a division title. Buck Showalter and the O’s did just about all they could, winning 2 of 3 against the Rays, and even beat them in the first of two potential clinching games, inspiring David Price to tweet about his embarrassment at the lack of a home crowd at Tropicana Field for a clinching game (which I have discovered has since been taken down, hmmm) Sidenote: The Rays sold 5,000 obstructed view tickets for tonight’s game 5 at the Trop, and I can’t imagine there are worse seats than those in all of professional sports.

I do have to own up to it: my NL West predictions were totally wrong. I was just about as far off as you could get.  I had picked the Colorado Rockies, traditionally a strong-finishing team, to steal a playoff spot from both the Giants and the Braves, and the San Diego Padres to win the division.  I couldn’t have been more wrong. Not only did neither the Padres or the Rockies make the playoffs, but the Giants actually faced the Braves and now are in the NLCS. Let me explain how this all happened: the Rockies were absolutely terrible down the stretch run, losing 13 of their last 14 games (granted, they were eliminated in the last week of August, so they probably threw it in the towel the last weekend of the season).  After going 13-3 to start September, including a 10-game win streak, the Rox went 1-10 to finish the month, ending any chance of making the postseason.  I couldn’t have predicted such a collapse, considering they were facing teams (except for 3 games against the Giants) that were worse than them (Dodgers, D-backs, and Cardinals, who actually finished the season with a better record than Colorado). So thanks, Rockies, for ruining my postseason predictions.

Anyway, I still had the Phillies playing the NL West winner in the NLCS, except it’s the Giants instead of the Padres. And I guess the Cincinnati Reds get a mention in this post too, despite accumulating more errors (7) than runs (4) in the NLDS. I never expected “The New Red Machine” to go anywhere this postseason anyways.

My next MLB post will come before the World Series, so we’ll see if my predictions will hold for the fall classic. Until then, apologies go out to the city of Minnesota and any other Twins fans out there: I’m sorry I jinxed you. But really, it can’t just be me. You had it coming. 12 straight playoff losses, 9 straight to the Yankees.  Sorry also to Cincinnati Reds fans – your team barely gave the Phillies a fight, and your one bright spot – fireballer Aroldis Chapman – is in the history books alongside Carlos Ruiz, who hit Chapman’s 103 mph fastball for a double, the only hit off a pitch that fast since data has been recorded. To the Colorado Rockies: thanks for nothing. And finally, to Tampa Bay Rays fans (or at least the ones who sat in the worst seats in pro sports in game 5): I hope you get a new stadium soon.