Are the Michigan Wolverines Facing a 2009 Redux?

If I didn't say it, someone would have.

Rich Rodriguez fell to 0-3 against in-state rival Michigan State this past Saturday.

Michigan decisively failed its first test, and while it would be preferable to have done it to someone else, such is life.

After all, the sun still rose over Ann Arbor early Sunday morning.

The prognosticator in me predicted a Michigan win this past weekend (fail). I got the MSU score about right—I said 31; they made it to 34—but what I failed to see was Michigan's fledgling offense. Nobody really predicted Michigan running out of gas, and while State did just about everything I thought they would, Michigan's performance underwhelmed.

Before I get to how I feel about the rest of the season, I have to mention one thing.

Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers...

Michigan moved the ball effectively against State until they made it into the red zone. Two INTs instead of points (combined with our less than stellar defense) is never a good formula for success, whether it's against the worst FCS team you could find or 'Bama (actually, OSU I guess). Denard Robinson just looked off—he underthrew, couldn't really get his legs moving, etc.

Even on his off day, he had 311 all-purpose yards. That's actually not too shabby. Sure, he failed to break records in his outing, but do you think it's possible that fans, coaches, and media let it all get to their heads just a bit?

Maybe this is what we'll see the rest of the season—80-100 rushing yards and three INTs a game from Denard. He let it slide off his shoulders though, only 15 minutes after the game; he wasted no time. Denard realized he had a pretty bad outing and was all about getting focused for Iowa.

And oh boy, will Michigan need it, as Iowa comes to Ann Arbor boasting one of the best run defenses in the nation.

So, are we looking at 2009 v. 2.0?

Well, in short, we won't know until Oct. 16th.

Michigan faced stiffer competition to begin 2010 than they did in 2009. Michigan's opponents were a respectable 13-6 combined heading into this week (minus their losses to the Wolverines). Compare UConn, Notre Dame, and BGSU of 2010 to Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Delaware State, etc. of 2009.

And Michigan averaged nine points a game more this year.

For the heck of it, let's see what Michigan would've looked like in 2009 had they been able to keep the offensive pace they've had thus far this year (every game adjusted for this year's offensive production, i.e. plus nine points per game).

Western Michigan: 41-7 W (1-0)
Notre Dame: 47-34 W (2-0)
Eastern Michigan: 54-17 W (3-0)
Indiana: 45-33 W (4-0, 1-0)
Michigan State: 29-26 W (5-0, 2-0)
Iowa: 37-30 W (6-0, 3-0)
Del. State: 72-6 W (7-0, 3-0)
Penn State: 19-35 L (7-1, 3-1)
Illinois: 22-38 L (7-2, 3-2)
Purdue: 45-38 W (8-2, 4-2)
Wisconsin: 33-45 L (8-3, 4-3)
Ohio State: 19-22 L (8-4, 4-4)

...So why bother?

I have an inkling we can expect a relatively similar outcome this year.  Michigan might surprise someone (Iowa, Wisconsin), and Michigan might drop a game they shouldn't (Purdue, Illinois).

Looking at the schedule, there's really only three games that I would classify as winnable for Michigan—Penn State, Illinois, and Purdue. Now, Purdue and Illinois are coming off extremely impressive victories, and they've been doing quite well as of late (especially Illinois), so those are looking more dangerous than they did a few short days ago.

Even Penn State, well, that's a prime time game at Beaver Stadium—and Michigan's defense has a knack for making any QB look like a Heisman contender, so I expect their true frosh QB to take a bit of advantage there.

Michigan might surprise one of Iowa or Wisconsin, but I wouldn't put money on it.

So at this moment, this team looks to settle at around 8-4 (4-4). However, if Denard can stay healthy, learn from the mistakes he made this weekend, and really anchor this offense, then maybe they push 9-3, but we'll see.

It starts with Iowa this week—I think that game, being Tate Forcier's worst (statistically), really set the tone for Michigan's downward spiral. I can't help but believe it's on everyone's mind who is going to wear a Michigan jersey.

Even still, against a better Iowa defense last year, at Kinnick, at night, Michigan still brought it down to the wire—dropping a 30-28 contest after Denard threw the game-sealing interception.

How Michigan responds in the face of adversity this week against Iowa will tell all that we need to know about the rest of the year. Be worried if Michigan's offense continues to look lost and the defense gives up 500-plus yards. Be happy if Michigan's offense clicks, the defense holds Iowa to under 400, and even if the Wolverines lose, they play an impeccable game.

It's only midseason; there's a lot left to do. Now that we're 24 hours out, we move on. It's time to prepare for Iowa.

The Verdict

Calendar still reads 2010, at least for one more week.