Florida State -- Miami: Don't Believe the Hype... It's a Sequel
The Seminoles and Hurricanes renew their ongoing fist-fight this weekend, as the schools, players, coaches and fans prepare for the next round of this exciting rivalry.
We are 48 hours away from kickoff, and the tension, sweaty hands, excitement, and smack talk has already started.
Elbows are already sore from tomahawk chop tendinitis, and thumb-to-thumb “U” signals have given way to blisters.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Many prognosticators are already measuring the tale of the tape to try and lobby for one of the two teams. But we all know that statistics are only tools to weaken or strengthen one’s argument; they don’t ever yield absolute results.
The stat line of the past month has been the cataclysmic defense that both these teams are displaying thus far, especially up front.
Florida State and Miami are nationally ranked 1 and 2 respectively in sacks and tackles for loss.
Beyond those numbers are a slew of trends we can look at that might give us an idea of who has the edge this Saturday.
Warning: teams who enter this rivalry game with an edge, higher ranking or better record seldom actually win.
With that disclaimer, I aim to explain why Florida State will win this Saturday. And when and if I’m wrong, I’ll shake my head like the villain in the Scooby Doo cartoons and say, “If it weren’t for those meddling Hurricanes, I’d have gotten away with it!”
THE QUARTERBACKS. Both Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris have played in two previous FSU—Miami games coming into this weekend.
In 2008, FSU beat Miami 41–39. Harris only saw limited action, and his first play of the game was an absolute nightmare, as he took Miami backward, then was relegated to the bench.
JH12 went 3-for-7 in the game, registering 32 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. He ran the ball twice for no yards.
Ponder on the other hand had a brilliant day. He went 14-for-31 for 159 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions; mediocre numbers through the air. But on the ground, he ran the ball 19 times for a game-high 144 yards.
Apart from all of FSU’s mistakes, miscues and turnovers (which resulted in 29 Miami points), the story of the day was Christian Ponder.
In 2009, Miami beat FSU 38—34. Ponder’s numbers were terrific, as he was 24-for-41 for 294 yards. He threw two touchdowns and one interception. He also gained 28 yards on eight carries.
Harris’ totals were outstanding. He threw for a 386 yards, completing 21-of-34. He threw two touchdowns and two interceptions. On three rushing attempts he gained minus-3 yards.
It would seem that both quarterbacks are becoming better at their positions as they get older. But both men entered this season with expectations that shot through the roof, and to some degree both have disappointed their fans and the media.
Christian Ponder’s numbers through five games are average. He’s completed 78-for-129 for 844 yards, 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s also rushed 45 times for 197 yards.
Eerily similar are Harris’ numbers: Jacory is 68-for-119, 895 yards, 10 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s carried the ball 15 times for 49 yards.
Where the numbers differ may tell the real tale of Saturday’s game: Ponder has found success this year (and throughout his career) rolling out, scrambling and running the ball on designed QB run plays. Jacory Harris has not.
Another big difference between the two is interceptions. Harris already has 8 of them this season, all of which have come in the last three games. Ponder only has 3 total.
Harris threw 17 last season, which was second in the nation. Ponder only threw 7. Granted; Jacory played in 13 games and CP7 only played in 9, but it’s pretty obvious Harris has a problem and it goes by the abbreviation INT.
THE RUNNING GAME. Lost in all the defensive numbers and the quarterback hype is the fact that Florida State has quietly steamrolled it’s way into the top 25 in quite a few rushing categories, including yards per carry (5.7—14th in the nation), total yards (1043—22nd) and yards per game (209—25th).
What’s more interesting is that when you include the Noles’ passing numbers (“total offense”), they are 19th in the country with 2166 yards this season, 22nd with 6.5 yards per play and 30th with 433.2 yards per game.
Miami isn’t anywhere near the top 50 in any of these categories. And with star running back Graig Cooper not contributing, the Miami running game has been shaky.
The Seminoles sport three talented running backs who have all been impressive. Jermaine Thomas leads the group and has rushed for 308 yards (6.3 yards per carry) and four touchdowns on the ground.
Ty Jones has amassed 283 yards (7.9 per carry) and two rushing touchdowns. Chris Thompson has tallied 262 yards (7.7 per) and three TD’s on running plays.
Combined, they are averaging 184 yards per game on the ground. The team is averaging 209 total.
Miami’s top three running backs—as a group—have been less than spectacular. Damien Berry’s numbers are terrific so far: 327 yards (a 4.9 per carry average) and one rushing touchdown. But the others aren’t.
Lamar Miller has a nice looking average at 5.4 per carry, but he’s only gained 157 yards, and Mike James only has totaled 77 yards.
The biggest discrepancy between Miami and Florida State right now are what the teams have gained on the ground, and what they are giving up to their opponents.
Florida State’s 209 yards per game on the ground is terrific, but their defense is only allowing a miniscule 75 yards; that’s fourth-best in the nation.
In contrast, Miami is averaging only 137 rushing yards per game (77th in the country) but their defense is allowing 131 yards (43rd). If Miami loses, look to the run defense as the culprit.
PASSING DEFENSE. The one area that Miami has surpassed Florida State is in the secondary. Miami is only allowing 136 yards through the air (6th in the nation) and the Seminoles are giving up 218 (71st).
The young FSU secondary got seared and scorched in Norman Oklahoma, and the biggest fear on the minds of Nole fans is how the unit will react to Harris and wide outs Leonard Hankerson and Travis Benjamin.
As even as the two teams passing numbers have been thus far this season, it’s FSU’s secondary that could cost them this game late.
But on the other side of the coin, Jacory Harris could help the Noles defense out with a few gift-wrapped aerial packages telegraphed to the defensive backs.
“DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE; IT’S A SEQUEL…” Chuck D’s words ring as true this week as they did in ’87 when he wrote them. Forget about the QB talk and the dominating D-lines. They will cancel each other out.
This game will come down to one big question, and the answer will see it’s results on the scoreboard. Which unit will dominate—FSU’s running game or Miami’s passing attack?
“…As an equal can I get this through to you?”
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
