Iowa vs Michigan: What The Hawkeyes Must Do on Offense
Unlike when Michigan has the ball, which is a decidedly strength-on-strength matchup, the Iowa O vs the Michigan D leaves a bit more to the imagination.
Obviously, Michigan's defensive woes have been well-covered. However, to give the Wolverines some credit, they do have a solid line and a somewhat respectable rushing defense.
Of course, their pass defense is a mess, but they are a young mess. One has to assume they will get better, and as with any young, talented squad, you never know when they will have a big breakthrough.
As for Iowa's offense, they have played fairly well. Perhaps not as well as 2008 or 2002, but quarterback Ricky Stanzi has taken palpable strides this offseason to be the quarterback Iowa needs him to be.
Furthermore, Iowa has the deepest and most talented set of receivers in the Kirk Ferentz era. Moreover, while Adam Robinson is the only experienced back Iowa still has, he is also one of the best in the Big Ten.
This is good news, because there will be a ton of pressure on the Hawkeye offense to put a lot of points on the board. There is no getting around the fact that this might be one of the few games this year where Iowa's top 10 caliber defense can not simply be expected to maintain the game once they get a lead. They will need help, points, and ball control from the offense.
Iowa's Questionable Kicking Game Vs Michigan's Questionable Kicking Game
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As I mentioned yesterday, if Hawkeye fans thought they had kicking problems, then they have not been watching Michigan.
Michigan currently ranks dead last in the Big Ten in field goal percentage, making two-of-seven for a scintillatingly bad 28.6 percent. That makes them over 30 percent worse than the second-worst field goal kicking team, Minnesota.
Over the course of six games, they have experimented with three different kickers. Right now, they seem settled on freshman Seth Broekhuizen, but having only made one of three attempts, he can hardly inspire confidence in UM fans.
Meanwhile, Iowa has its own issues at kicker. They are nowhere near as dire as Michigan's issues, but generally speaking, Kirk Ferentz depends on his kicker more often than Rich Rodriguez.
Iowa has only attempted three field goals thus far this year, so its 66 percent success rate only means so much. However, while freshman Michael Meyer appears to have secured the job, he's got two veteran kickers behind him. This has to leave Hawk fans wondering how a walk-on freshman beat out two veteran scholarship kickers.
In short, if this game is close and comes down to a field goal, things could get very ugly.
Colin Sandeman Vs Will Hagerup
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Colin Sandeman ranks third in the Big Ten in punt return average. There is a certain reality, and it is that Sandeman is not too likely to break many big returns.
On the other hand, he is very consistent and very dependable. If his average is 10.88 on eight returns, that is probably because he is returning the ball for 10-11 yards per return. This is to be differentiated from a returner that pulls off a big one once every 10 returns, while botching the other nine.
Meanwhile, Will Hagerup was the fourth-ranked punter in the class of 2010. He received offers from programs all over the country including Iowa. In the end, he chose the Wolverines.
He began the year very poorly, ranking last in the Big Ten in punt average after the fourth week. However, over the last two weeks, he has come on very strong, averaging 47.5 yards on his last eight punts. Due to this, he currently ranks fifth in the conference.
Nevertheless, he is still a true freshman. Moreover, Michigan currently ranks eighth in the conference in defensive punt return average.
Field position will be key to this game, as it is in every Iowa game, so this is a matchup that could be incredibly important as the game wears on.
Iowa's O-Line Vs Michigan's Front Three
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Michigan has a terrible defense, but their run defense is fairly respectable. They are ninth in the Big Ten, which is not good, but it is eons better than the bottom two—Indiana and Minnesota—and at least statistically, they are amongst a below average group that also includes Penn State and Northwestern.
Moreover, a large part of the issue with their rush defense goes back to their secondary, as well as the inexplicably poor positioning of their veteran linebackers.
The fact is, they have a good, not great, defensive line.
Of course, as their base is a 3-3-5, there is only so much of the defensive line to go around.
As for Iowa, they still have a developing O-line. They should be able to win the overall matchup with UM's D-line, but it has to be expected that the Wolverines will come out very aggressively, much as they did against Michigan State.
Iowa will have to weather the storm, because in the end, while Michigan does possess the edge in team speed, Iowa is undoubtedly the more physical team. If they can withstand the initial storm that Michigan is sure to throw at them, they should be able to establish dominance over the Wolverines as the game wears on.
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Play Action Vs UM's Back Seven
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Michigan stinks against rollouts. Certainly, their young and inexperienced secondary has a good deal to do with it. However, it also seems to have a good deal to do with their inexplicably poor linebacker play. Last year, the UM linebackers, like this year's secondary, were young and inexperienced. That is not the case this year.
Moreover, Michigan has stunk it up against rollouts playing the likes of Bowling Green and UMass. With all due respect to those programs, if there is one thing that Ricky Stanzi is and has been quite good at, it is the rollouts.
Furthermore, with or without Stanzi, Iowa's bread and butter under Kirk Ferentz and Ken O'Keefe has been the play action and rollouts.
Expect to see a ton of them against the Wolverines. In fact, if all goes well, you can expect the Iowa tight ends to have career days against UM.
Iowa Vs The Clock
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In their victory over Michigan, Michigan State put an emphasis on controlling the ball and keeping Denard Robinson and the dangerous Wolverine offense off the field.
When it was all said and done, MSU held a TOP advantage of over 10 minutes.
Nevertheless, that was not really the issue with UM. After all, the previous week against the Hoosiers, Michigan lost the TOP battle by over 20 minutes, yet they still won the game.
In the end, TOP is one statistic that doesn't concern Rich Rodriguez. Despite being the top team in the conference in total offense, Michigan is last in TOP.
However, it will be key for Iowa. As with MSU, Iowa will look to sustain drives and keep Robinson off the field. While doing that, they will look to wear down the Michigan defense so that by the fourth quarter, the Hawks can put up five YPC without any great effort or risk.
In essence, Iowa will look to out-physical Michigan.
In the end, this game is really very simple: Iowa is looking to be the more physical, disciplined team, while Michigan will rely on speed, creating mismatches off of that speed and putting their playmakers in a position where they can take advantage of their speed.
And as I said previously, if Iowa does what it sets out to do, I don't see Michigan having a shot at winning this game.
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