College Football Predictions: Florida St. Over Miami and Week 6 Possible Upsets
October of the college football season is a lot like the second month of a relationship.
By now you know just enough about the other person to basically understand where the relationship is going, but there is also just enough of the unknown remaining to tempt you to stick around a little while longer to see how it works out.
By November you're either going to start looking at rings or you’ll be looking forward to “next season.”
Week 5 had much to say about our lurid affair with college football, and the sultry upset temptress was on hand to entice us to believe that insurmountable odds could be overcome and Goliath could indeed defeat David.
The hapless Longhorns came within a muffed punt of making a final charge against the fortunate Sooners, and North Carolina State looked all but victorious over Virginia Tech until they allowed the Hokies 20 fourth quarter points.
Stanford also looked solid until the second half vs. Oregon, when the Ducks reeled off 28 unanswered points, resulting in a 21-point winning margin and a halt to the Cardinal's run at perfection.
And then there was Tennessee, oh Tennessee; the Volunteers had LSU beat after a bizarre 19 seconds dripped off the clock and the Tigers couldn’t get a final play off at the goal line, but alas, Derek Dooley’s boys had 13 men on the field and gave LSU one last go that resulted in a touchdown.
No matter how many times the replay indicated that the penalty was real, it was hard not to feel gutted for the Volunteers.
Week 6 upon the college gridiron features 55 games involving 110 FBS teams with a season-first zero FBS vs. FCS matchups. Ten FBS teams take a much-needed week off from competition.
So, who will become “road kill” this week and spend Sunday morning being scraped off the asphalt as the college football nation looks on with fascination at how the mighty fall from grace?
Once again, the following slideshow plods forward attempting to pinpoint matchups that have the best chance of resulting in an upset and then ranks them based on confidence (one being assigned to the most confident pick or “the lock” and the dubious No. 7 left for the least assured or the weekly “ridiculous” pick).
7. South Carolina over Alabama
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Well, it wouldn’t be an upset prediction article if mention was not made of the No. 1 team in the land being knocked off its throne...
Week 6’s Alabama at South Carolina meeting actually provides a fairly provocative opportunity for an unlikely upset to occur.
After beating Arkansas and Florida, why worry about the Gamecocks?
Alabama comes into the contest a perfect 5-0 and has not lost a football game since the January 2, 2009 Sugar Bowl vs. Utah.
The Crimson Tide have thus far this season knocked off San Jose State, No. 18 Penn State, Duke, No. 10 Arkansas, and No. 7 Florida.
South Carolina comes into the game ranked No. 19 in the AP and is 3-1 overall with wins over Southern Mississippi, No. 22 Georgia, and Furman and an eight-point loss to No. 17 Auburn.
Alabama leads the overall series 12-2 and is 3-1 in Columbia. South Carolina is 2-3 vs. the Tide since 2000.
The last Gamecock win vs. Alabama came in 2004 in Tuscaloosa, and the last home win over the Crimson Tide was a 37-36 nail-biter back in 2001.
The Bottom Line
The Tide are favored by just over a touchdown, and the game is being played Saturday afternoon at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, SC.
On paper this looks like an easy game to call; in fact, why not give more points to the Gamecocks?
The word is in from Vegas: Take the Tide -7.5!
But hold on a moment before prematurely awarding the Tide the 20th victory in their long string of 19 overall wins, the 30th in their 29 consecutive regular season victories, and the 19th in their 18 straight conference wins...
The Gamecocks gave up 334 yards rushing in their loss to Auburn, which seems to spell absolute disaster vs. the Tide, who hammer the ball relentlessly with Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson.
But before you start waving a white flag over Columbia, take into account that Auburn is the seventh best rushing team in the land. Alabama is 10 slots below at No. 17.
If South Carolina’s defense can find a way to improve upon its porous performance at Auburn and stop the uncomplicated but powerful Tide running attack, the Gamecocks will give themselves a chance.
Offensively though, how will South Carolina manage to score on the No. 1 defense in college football?
Well that may be a problem for the 50th-ranked offense in the land.
The solution is the key to all shocking upsets: turnovers.
Alabama will have to make costly errors in order to give South Carolina an edge, and conversely the Gamecocks must be mistake-free to seal the deal.
Greg McElroy has thrown seven touchdowns and three picks. Alabama has fumbled the ball nine times but only lost three of these.
Stephen Garcia has thrown five touchdowns and only two picks. South Carolina has fumbled the ball four times and lost the ball on three of these drops.
Can Alabama remain perfect in the record books and on the field? A mistake-free game should propel them towards the hope of a second consecutive perfect season. Anything short of this and things will get interesting in Columbia, SC.
6. Colorado over Missouri
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Is Dan Hawkins finally righting the ship in Boulder and saving his job along the way?
Well, Colorado’s three wins going into Week 6 already match the total number of victories the Buffaloes produced in 2009 and are only two shy of the total mark achieved in 2008.
To seal the deal Hawkins really needs to find a way to tack on three more wins and make it to a bowl, basically finally proving that he is the man (better late than never) to bring Colorado football back to national prominence.
Missouri, on the other hand, is just trying to build on the success of recent years (they’re the only team in the Big 12 North to claim five straight bowl bids and five straight winning seasons) and possibly knock Nebraska out of the catbird seat and vie for a final Big 12 championship game (against...who knows?).
Colorado is 3-1 going into Saturday evening's game vs. the Tigers with wins over Colorado State, Hawaii, and Georgia. The one loss was a blowout to Cal.
Missouri is a perfect 4-0, and after a close win vs. Illinois in the opener the Tigers have beaten McNeese State (FCS), San Diego State, and Miami (OH).
Missouri leads the all-time series 40-31 and is 25-11 at home in Columbia. Additionally, the Tigers have won the last four contests by a 177-40 margin and are 5-5 in the last decade.
The last time the Buffs beat the Tigers in Columbia? Eight years ago in 2002, when Colorado won 42-35.
The Bottom Line
The Saturday night game will be played in Memorial Stadium in Columbia, MO, and the Tigers are favored by 12.5 points.
This is the Big 12 conference opener for both teams and the final one for Colorado, which is bolting for the Pac-10 in 2011.
Missouri has outplayed all four of its 2010 opponents; Blaine Gabbert has gone 103-of-151 for 1,039 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions.
The Tigers defense is No. 10 overall, allowing an average of only 14 points per game, and has registered nine sacks and eight interceptions.
Clearly dominant, but who have the Missouri Tigers played?
The three FBS opponents combined in 2009 went 8-28 and in aggregate ranked 81st overall in offense and 77th overall in defense last season. The fourth win was over a solid FCS squad.
Colorado's three wins and one blowout out loss (to Cal), though far less convincing, have come against teams that went 25-26 in 2009.
Colorado beating Missouri in Columbia seems about as likely as the Buffs beating Georgia (at any venue).
But wait—that happened last week, didn’t it?
Provocatively, this week marked the 20-year anniversary (Oct. 6, 1990) of the infamous “fifth down” game where, as is the case this week, Missouri was pitted against Colorado in Columbia. Late in the game the Buffs where awarded an erroneous “fifth” down, which resulted in a touchdown, a victory, and eventually a national title.
5. Tennessee over Georgia
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Tennessee suffered one of the most disheartening losses of the season last weekend vs. LSU, while Georgia has suffered one of the most disheartening starts to the 2010 campaign.
The meeting between the two this Saturday in Athens will go a long way toward telling college football where they will each wind up by the time December comes.
Tennessee is 2-3 coming into Week 6 with a blowout win vs. Tennessee-Martin, an overtime win vs. UAB, and then respectable losses to No. 7 Oregon, No. 10 Florida, and No. 12 LSU.
Georgia is a disappointing 1-4 overall thus far, and after a big win vs. Louisiana-Lafayette in the opener the Bulldogs have dropped four straight to No. 24 South Carolina, No. 12 Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Colorado.
Will the Volunteers rebound from their last-second error vs. LSU and move on to bigger and better things?
Will Georgia finally turn the corner, stop its downward slide, and begin to win again?
Tennessee leads the all-time series 20-16 and is 10-8 between the hedges in Athens.
The Bottom Line
The game is slated to be played in Athens, Georgia, and the Bulldogs are favored by 12.5 points.
These are two teams who are clearly struggling; case in point, Georgia and Tennessee are a combined 0-5 thus far in SEC play.
Tennessee will have to get to freshman quarterback Aaron Murray and find a way to cover receiver A.J. Green, who will be back in action for the second time since his four-game suspension. Though Green played well vs. Colorado, that contest also proved he can’t do it alone.
Tennessee’s offensive production doesn’t seem worth mentioning until you realize that its 1,662 yards of total offense thus far came (at least partially) against the aggregate No. 15-ranked defenses (Oregon, Florida, and LSU combined) in 2010.
Georgia’s defense ranks 48th overall.
As for Georgia, they just have to play to their potential and eliminate costly turnovers (three fumbles thus far this season during scoring drives) and mistakes.
Interestingly, the Bulldogs are 1-4 but have outscored opponents 124 to 108. In their four losses the margin of loss was a grand total of 32 points. Though Georgia has been successful in the red zone with an 89 percent rate of scoring, only 56 percent of these scores have been touchdowns.
Georgia will have to score some touchdowns in the red zone if games continue to be close.
Call it subjective, but the Tennessee Volunteers play like they want to win while the Bulldogs play like, well, they are going to lose.
This, of course, could all turn around Saturday at 12:21 PM between the hedges, where one of these two teams will finally win its first SEC game of the season.
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4. LSU over Florida
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In what is normally considered a marquee matchup, this year’s LSU vs. Florida game may be one of the most intriguing in decades.
Intriguing not in terms of who will overpower whom, but instead provocative for who might out-gaffe whom.
No. 12 LSU travels to No. 7 Florida in a battle of two teams experiencing identity crises. Indeed, both teams’ on-field exploits thus far beg the question, “Are these really Top 15 teams?”
Well, after Saturday at least one will go while the other stays.
LSU makes its way to Gainesville a misleading 5-0 with a win in its opener against the depleted North Carolina Tar Heels, a win at Vanderbilt, at home vs. Mississippi St., and then two wholly unconvincing and bizarre wins vs. No. 22 West Virginia and Tennessee.
Florida, on the other hand, is 4-1 including an ugly win against Miami (Ohio) in the opener, consecutive wins over South Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky, and then the loss in Tuscaloosa last weekend vs. the Crimson Tide.
Florida leads the overall series 30-23 and is 14-10 vs. LSU in Gainesville. The Gators are 6-4 vs. the Tigers in the last decade, and LSU’s last victory over Florida was in 2007 in Baton Rouge.
LSU last bested the Gators in Gainesville in 2004.
The Bottom Line
The game is slated to be played in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL, and the Gators are favored by 7.5 points.
This game features teams with solid defensive units and struggling offensive units.
LSU has the fifth-ranked defense in the land and has allowed only 12.4 points per game thus far in the season. The Gators are ranked 26th in “D” and have allowed 17.6 points per game in 2010.
Offensively speaking, LSU is 112th in passing and 33rd in rushing yards, while Florida is 83rd in passing and 65th in rushing.
LSU’s QB Jordan Jefferson is 46-of-89 for 449 yards, only two touchdowns, and a resounding six interceptions.
Florida’s QB John Brantley is 89-of-145 for 902 yards, six touchdowns, and three picks.
This game will come down to who can manage to score on whom and then who makes the fewest mistakes.
LSU will have to run the ball on the 34th-ranked rushing defense in the land, while Florida will have to throw successfully on the 37th-ranked passing defense.
The real mismatch might be Florida’s questionable offensive line vs. LSU’s formidable defensive line.
Or are we putting mistakes vs. mistakes; Brantley’s three picks vs. Jefferson’s six, Florida’s 17 fumbles vs. LSU’s 11, or LSU’s bizarre clock management and substitution techniques vs. the Gators' flustered and painful to watch offense.
The team that will win this SEC matchup will be the team that (1) can manage to score points on a good opposing defense and (2) somehow can manage to eliminate at least some of the errors and mistakes suffered in the first five weeks of play.
3. UCLA over Cal
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Ah, October...and now it’s time for the Southern California schools to travel northwards to face their northern in-state and in-conference foes.
On Saturday both UCLA and USC will travel to the Bay Area to face Cal and Stanford respectively.
One big state, two great games involving only one ranked team (and it’s not USC).
UCLA comes into its game against Cal 3-2, which includes two straight losses to open the season Kansas State and No. 25 Stanford, followed by three consecutive wins over No. 23 (but mostly quarterback-less) Houston, No. 7 Texas in Austin, and Washington State.
Conversely, the California Golden Bears are 2-2, winning easily enough in their first two games, pounding UC Davis and Colorado, and then dropping two straight to streaking Nevada (then unranked) and No. 14 Arizona on the road.
UCLA leads the all-time series 49-30 and is 22-18 in Berkeley. Cal is 6-4 vs. the Bruins since 2000, and the last UCLA win at Cal was 12 years ago in 1998.
The Golden Bears won the 2009 meeting between the two 45-26 in LA.
The Bottom Line
Cal is favored by just over a touchdown, and the game will be played at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley.
This game, at least on paper, seems closer than the 7.5-point spread deemed appropriate by the odds maker brain trust.
UCLA’s passing game has been nothing short of anemic, and they rank a suitable 118th overall through the air. Their running game has been their saving grace, and they rank 10th overall on the ground, successfully shooting their version of the “pistol” offense.
Cal’s offense is also more successful on the ground, but with far better balance; they rank 34th in the country in rushing and 67th in passing.
Defensively speaking, UCLA ranks 56th in total “D,” 41st against the pass, and 19th vs. the run. Cal is 44th in total defense, 101st against the pass, and 47th against the run.
Both teams have dropped games to good opponents and won games against foes that haven’t been quite as formidable.
Though UCLA has pounded off three impressive victories in a row, it should be said that the win vs. Houston had the Cougars devoid of both their starting and backup QBs, the win vs. Texas (though in Austin) has lost some of its luster with the Longhorns' continued woes, and the win vs. Washington State was, well, against Washington State.
Both teams have had their share of turnover woes; the Bruins have fumbled the ball 14 times, losing it on nine of these occasions, and QB Kevin Prince has thrown four picks in only 63 attempts and two touchdowns.
The Golden Bears have dropped the ball eight times, losing it for good five of these times, and QB Kevin Riley has thrown four interceptions in 107 attempts but has tossed eight touchdown passes.
UCLA has the edge defensively, and if they can shut down the Cal running game led by Shane Vereen and force Riley to win through the air, they will have a shot to knock off the Golden Bears on the road.
As always, if either of these teams has a problem protecting the football, it will spell disaster in the beautiful Bay Area.
2. Michigan State over Michigan
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Michigan State hasn’t played outside of the state of Michigan since its 41-31 loss to Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on January 2, 2010.
Thus far this season, within the Michigan state lines, the Spartans have knocked off five straight opponents, scored 181 points, pulled off arguably the most exciting finish of a game this season with a fake field goal vs. Notre Dame in overtime, beat No. 11 Wisconsin in East Lansing, and beyond all of this have overcome the off-field drama of head coach Mark Dantonio’s heart attack following the Notre Dame thriller.
The Michigan Wolverines, on the other hand, began the season by registering a victory in a “must win” game at home vs. surging UConn and then reeled off four additional victories of their own, all on the capable shoulders of sophomore sensation QB Denard Robinson.
The series between the in-state rivals began in 1898, and the Wolverines lead overall 67-30 and are 47-19 in Ann Arbor.
Michigan dropped its last two games to the Spartans (2008 and 2009) but won the previous six meetings vs. State.
The Bottom Line
The game is being played in Ann Arbor, and Michigan is favored by five points. Michigan State comes into the contest ranked No. 24 in the AP, while Michigan is ranked No. 19.
The Spartans' balanced offensive attack (39th in passing yards and 20th in rushing yards) should be able to score rather easily on a Wolverine defense that ranks 102nd in total defense and 120th in passing defense.
This game will come down to whether the Spartans defense can stop the one-man Michigan show featuring the talented Denard Robinson.
Robinson leads the team and the nation in rushing with 905 yards on 98 carries and has thrown for over 1,000 yards with seven touchdowns and only one interception.
In their first five contests the Wolverines have faced an FCS foe and four FBS squads who combined ranked 81st defensively in 2009.
Michigan State ranks 36th in total defense, allowing only 18.6 points per game thus far, have allowed 227.4 yards per game through the air, and are 24th overall against the run.
The Spartans clearly have the defensive firepower to thwart Robinson, especially as far as the run is concerned.
If State can find a way to stop Robinson or force him to finally make some sophomoric errors, they will beat Michigan in the Big House.
1. Florida State over Miami
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A literal throng of college football enthusiasts have awaited Oct. 9, 2010 for one reason: Seminoles vs. Hurricanes in a game that once again matters.
Indeed, as predicted the winner of this Saturday’s in-state football-palooza will give one of these two teams an inside track to the ACC title game.
Florida State under new head coach Jimbo Fisher is 4-1, including a pounding of FCS Samford, an ugly loss in Norman to No. 10 Oklahoma, and then three consecutive wins over BYU, Wake Forest, and Virginia.
Miami, on the other hand, is 3-1 and ranked No. 16 with a win in the opener vs. Florida A&M and a close loss to No. 2 Ohio State in Columbus, followed by consecutive road victories vs. Pitt and Clemson.
The Hurricanes lead the overall series 31-23 and are 17-16 at home in Miami vs. the ‘Noles. Miami is 8-3 vs. Florida State since 2000, including a win in the 2004 Orange Bowl.
The Hurricanes outlasted the Seminoles 38-34 last season in Tallahassee, and the last Florida State win in Miami was in 2008, when the Seminoles won 41-39.
The last nine contests between the two have been decided by a mere 38 total points.
The Bottom Line
The Hurricanes are a touchdown favorite, and the game is scheduled for Saturday night in Sun Life Stadium in Coral Gables, Florida.
Florida State has been more successful running the ball, while Miami has had more success through the air. The Seminoles are ranked 60th in passing yards and 26th on the ground, while the Hurricanes are 47th passing and 77th rushing.
This all evens out pretty nicely with FSU being ranked 29th in total offense while the “U” is 39th.
Defensively speaking both teams are solid overall, with the Seminoles ranking 20th in overall defense and the Hurricanes just slightly above at 18th.
If Florida State (which has already registered a mind-boggling 25 sacks) can rattle Jacory Harris (who has already thrown nine picks) and force the ‘Canes to run the ball against the ninth-best rushing “D” in the land, they will be successful in Miami.
But will the Seminoles' running attack, which has basically been fueled by four separate backs, be able to move the ball on the No. 29 rushing defense in the land? Miami held run-dominant Pitt to only 128 yards in its 31-3 victory in Week 4.
This is yet another game that may well come down to turnovers: The Seminoles have 10 fumbles with five balls ultimately being lost and three interceptions thrown in Christian Ponder’s 129 attempts.
Miami, on the other hand, has dropped the ball four times but recovered each and every time. However, QB Jacory Harris has thrown a massive eight picks in only 119 attempts. That’s six percent of his attempts going to the other team. Ouch.
My bet is the team with the most turnovers loses. Florida State’s defensive line and backs will have a lot of say in this equation.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
