Pitt Can Beat Notre Dame By Focusing, Eliminating Penalties, Establishing Pass

Pitt and Notre Dame should play a nailbiter on Saturday despite the Irish's slight edge in power and tradition.

If the Panthers play with a strong desire akin to their effort against West Virginia in 2007, they will pull off a defining win of the 2010 season. 

Notre Dame Stadium has not been much of an edge when the Irish host Pitt. The Panthers have won close games the last two times they played there: 41-38 in 2004 and 36-33 in 2008.

Dave Wannstedt's Panthers have beaten Notre Dame the past two seasons by a total of eight points. In 2007 the Panthers trailed, tied, and then won the kicking game in four overtimes. Last season Pitt stormed out to a big lead and watched the Irish rally fall short.

Notre Dame is ranked slightly ahead of Pitt in Massey's power ratings: 46.46 to Pitt 45.71. This game is a toss up.

Hurting Pitt the most in addition to injuries is sloppy, tuned-out play. The 2010 edition of the Panthers are a disjointed unit.

In four games the offense has not accepted Tino Sunseri as their leader.

If Tino puts together a complete game, Pitt will win. Sometimes, however, Tino prances around the field. His stats demonstrate that he is a below-average major college quarterback at this point in his development.

Pitt can't win just by running Dion Lewis and Ray Graham. The Notre Dame defense will shut them down.

If Sunseri can connect with Jon Baldwin and Mike Shanahan, the Panthers will outscore the Irish. Despite ragged performances so far this season, Baldwin is still Pitt's top receiver, just edging Shanahan.

Maybe Sunseri and Baldwin need a kumbaya moment. Rumor has it Wannstedt is a pro at setting something like that up.

ND's Dayne Crist has a quarterback rating of 129.9 in the latest NCAA statistics. Tino Sunseri of Pitt is rated slightly higher at 130.1.

Michael Floyd, the Irish's top receiver, has 28 receptions and 408 yards. Theo Riddick and Kyle Rudolph are the Irish's next two most productive receivers with over 200 yards each. These three account of eight Irish touchdowns.

Baldwin for Pitt has 15 receptions for 211 yards and Shanahan is right behind with 14 receptions and 190 yards. A glaring deficiency in the Pitt offense is this stat: Pitt's top two receivers have only scored a total of two touchdowns.

Ray Graham is second in the Big East in rushing at 492 yards. Armando Allen, Jr. for Notre Dame has run for 392. He is the Irish rushing leader.

Notre Dame has been the dominant team in this rivalry through the nine decades these two teams have met on the football field. Only 20 times out of 65 have the Irish succumbed to the Panthers. 

This season may look like a return to normal for the Irish in the series, but only if the Panthers let it. Putting it all together is what Pitt fans have been waiting for. There is no better time or place to do it than this Saturday at famed Notre Dame Stadium.

Pitt and Notre Dame come into Saturday's game on a high.

Both posted big wins last Saturday, hoping to erase the lingering hangover of unmet expectations in 2010. Pitt beat a winless Sun Belt team. Notre Dame beat an ACC team.

Notre Dame opens -6 over Pitt.

Wannstedt clearly knows what to expect from Brian Kelly. He is 1-2 against the first-year Irish coach. In 2007 Kelly's Cincinnati team was ranked and the Panthers were in the middle of a funk, but Wannstedt's team produced a big upset by beating the Bearcats 21-17.

If the 2010 Pitt season is going to be anything like 2008 and 2009, the Panthers have to win Saturday.

Wannstedt-Kelly is a battle of different philosophies and game-time adaptation. Kelly got the best of Wannstedt in 2008 and 2009, although Pitt had every opportunity to pull out a win last season.

Does Notre Dame consider this year's Pitt game a gimme?

No. Notre Dame is concerned about Ray Graham and the edge Pitt has had in the past two seasons in the series.

The Panthers can't be Santa Claus. They must eliminate pre-snap penalties and concentrate on every play. It would be great to see the bench actually involved in the game. Against Miami, TV cameras panned them in side conversations looking disinterested.

With just a 3-4 record in the past seven contests, Wannstedt is overdue for some good luck. Pitt must have a Sunseri-Baldwin connection, crisp, penalty-free play on each down, and a disciplined defense to whip the Irish for the third straight time. 

Pitt must have an all-consuming desire to win.