BCS Leaders Are Emerging: A Week 5 Roll Call

Key pieces of the NC race were set into motion this weekend, particularly in the SEC and Pac 10. 

Bama solidly thumped Florida to assert its control over the SEC, and barring a letdown (which is always possible), seems destined to head to Glendale.

Oregon defeated Stanford in a game of Pac 10 pinball, but the Ducks are putting together quite an impressive season thus far.

Oklahoma and Ohio State posted ugly wins to stay highly relevant in the national title discussion.

Taking Inventory of the Unbeaten

This is simple enough, but a useful exercise as we step back and look at the big picture.

Taking stock of the unbeaten, we note there are 18 undefeated teams remaining in the FBS, broken out as follows:

Five in the Big 12 (KSU, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State),

Four in the Big 10 (Michigan, MSU, Ohio State and Northwestern),

Three in the SEC (Alabama, Auburn, and LSU)

Two in the MWC (TCU and Utah),

Two in the Pac 10 (Arizona and Oregon),

Two in the WAC (Boise State and Nevada)

Where Do We Stand?

The picture is really starting to coalesce. The SEC champion appears to have a stranglehold on one of the NC title game berths, with Ohio State sitting squarely at No. 2…. for now….

If the Buckeyes win out, conventional wisdom would say we are heading for a Alabama/Ohio State matchup, but I continue to be intrigued by the Big XII as a possible spoiler to the matchup. And it will have a lot to do with the computers.

Make no mistake, if the Tide, Buckeyes, Huskers (or Sooners) and Ducks all win out, the coaches (and eventual Harris) pollsters will be likely to keep Ohio State entrenched at the No.2 spot just behind Alabama.

Currently, Ohio State has an impressive 77-point lead over No. 3 Oregon in the coaches poll.

But the computers are far more likely to prefer the potential Big XII champion over Ohio State, given the Big XII’s solid positioning when compared to the rest of the conferences.

Will Boise/TCU influence the NC after all?

I’ve been on the record for weeks saying that neither the Broncos nor the Frogs have much of a chance to appear in the NC game barring losses piling up among all the other major contenders, and I reiterate that opinion today.

However, they may have a major influence in the final BCS poll by potentially serving as “wedges” between Ohio State and other teams that are attempting to leapfrog the Buckeyes.

For example, if Oklahoma/Nebraska were to try and strong-arm Ohio State out of the title game by using their much stronger computer rankings, Ohio State could be protected if Oklahoma/Nebraska remained behind Boise and/or TCU in the human polls.

So in a highly simplified example, if Nebraska ranked a solid #1 in the computers (to Ohio State’s #3/#4/etc.), but then they ranked #5 in the human polls (behind Bama, tOSU, BSU and TCU), the threat to Ohio State would be greatly diffused.

But if Nebraska (or Oklahoma) were ultimately able to leapfrog the Broncos and Frogs in the human polls based on running the table in a stronger conference, Ohio State fans could have much more to worry about.

I will say this. The precedent thus far is not encouraging for non-AQ conference teams preserving their rankings. Look no further than Oregon, which just jumped ahead of Boise for the #3 spot in the coaches poll after beating Stanford. What have you done for us lately, Boise? Huh? Huh?

Being realistic here, what exactly do we expect will result in Boise (or TCU) regaining the edge over Oregon? An impressive Boise win over San Jose State? A TCU throttling of BYU? This is the case in point of the glass ceiling that the non-FBS teams face.

This is why they will not contend for the NC unless there is 2007-type chaos. Yes, we can pump them up to start the year and talk about those great wins over VT and Oregon State, but the when push comes to shove, the voters (and computers) are far too willing to demote them when compared to other teams from power conferences.

Which is why Ohio State fans should still be concerned. They want Boise and TCU to be loved. They do not want Oklahoma or Nebraska to join the Ducks in jumping them.

Those 2009 Bowl Games Were Pretty Important After All

Just think about how important TCU/Boise and Ohio State/Oregon meeting in the Fiesta and Rose Bowls, respectively may be on influencing the 2010 title race.

With the former, Boise will never be jumped by TCU in any weekly poll, as the teams settled it on a neutral field about eight months ago with largely the same personnel on each roster.

Yes, technically, we are supposed to treat each season separately and discretely, but in the final ballot, if both teams are 12-0, are voters supposed to completely ignore what happened in the prior year’s bowl game, in a head-to-head matchup?

The same now holds true with the Ducks and Buckeyes. As Oregon makes a powerful case for national title contention, we must acknowledge that Ohio State solidly defeated Oregon in Pasadena last season.

It’s so wrong, isn’t it? We should not care at all what happened last year.

In most normal sports, where a rational playoff/seeding process is compiled based on hard facts and indisputable tie-breakers, we would never dream of looking back last year.

But in the beauty contest that is the BCS, prior seasons’ games may make a lasting impression. Again, I ask you: if the Ducks and Buckeyes both win out, and when you consider they both play schedules that are almost identical in strength, who are the voters going to pick to go to Glendale?

You know that Terrell Pryor’s dismantling of the Ducks will be very much in their minds as they cast that final ballot.

The Bottom Line

Bama is all set to go to the NC if they win out, and it doesn’t matter how they do it. Do not rule out a one-loss Florida if they can run the table and get revenge in Atlanta during the potential rematch.

Yes, if Auburn or LSU can stun the world and win the SEC, they too will be in prime position to go to the national championship.

Ohio State’s No. 2 status seems secure for now, as I think the Big XII’s strength in the numbers is not mirrored among the voters.

The perception of the league is hurting, with Oklahoma struggling in many of their games against soft competition, and with Texas’ implosion hurting the “quality” of OU’s victory (and Nebraska’s potential victory).

Top-to-bottom, while five teams are undefeated in the league, few really give a lot of respect to Missouri, KSU and Oklahoma State.

Ohio State fans should still be most worried about the Big XII contenders, and rooting for Nebraska and OU to lose. Boise, TCU and Oregon do not threaten the Buckeyes.

Oregon needs the Buckeyes and the Big XII to sustain losses. If both of those events happen, they are in great shape to go to the national championship.

TCU and Boise are on the outside looking in, unless the other league leaders lose a game down the stretch.

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