Pursued By Bears: Handicapping California's Conference Matchups
Things looked pretty good for the Bears after the first two weeks of the season. Kevin Riley was completing passes at will, Shane Vereen was able to get his rest after impressive early-game cameos, and nothing was getting past the defense. Yes sir, fans of the blue and gold had every reason to be optimistic.
But no longer.
After wrapping up their non-conference schedule with an embarrassing loss to the Nevada Wolf Pack, the Golden Bears essentially find themselves right back where they were at the start of the season: off the national radar, and outside the elite ring of Pac-10 teams.And things aren't going to get any easier starting with Saturday's road tilt with No. 14 Arizona.
Conventional wisdom suggests that a Pac-10 title is out of the question. The good news is that, as things stand right now, the Bears look like a textbook case of a team that has nothing to lose. And it's not uncommon for teams like those to be dangerous.
So why not review their matchups, and take a realistic look at Cal's chances of staying in the mix until the end? After all, one loss doesn't necessarily kill a season.
Note: prepare for optimism.
Cal at Arizona (14)
1 of 9
Recent History: The Bears hold a 5-3 record against the Wildcats under Tedford. This includes a 1-2 mark in Tucson, including a 42-27 beat down of the Bears in 2008.
Arizona Scouting Report: With their win against then-No. 9 Iowa, the Wildcats are coming off what head coach Mike Stoops called a "program changing win." The win jumped them ten spots to No. 14, their highest ranking in 12 years. They succeed primarily on the strength of their explosive offense, which gets it done primarily through the air. Junior QB Nick Foles' 877 passing yards lead the conference, and he became the first quarterback to throw for 300 yards against Iowa in 29 games. Defensively, the Wildcats are something of a brick wall. They've allowed an average of 220.3 yards a game (third in the nation) and they were the last FBS team to allow a touchdown this season. They boast a very strong defensive line that's anchored by QB terrorizing defensive ends Brooks Reed and Ricky Elmore. They're not too shabby against the run either, allowing only 259 yards through three games. This included holding Iowa's Adam Robinson, who entered the game ninth in rushing, to 5 yards on 10 carries.
How the Bears Can Win: The Bears are basically catching the Wildcats at the program's highest point in over a decade. They're also playing them in their house, which was one of the loudest places on earth last Saturday night. Yikes. On offense, it wouldn't be fair to rely on another career night from Shane Vereen. As such, Kevin Riley is going to have to redeem himself if the offense is to have any hope of matching Arizona's. Given Riley's now infamous struggles in big road games, this is going to be particularly hard if he is to be chased around by Reed and Elmore all night. That pretty much means that the offensive line is going to have to play the game of their lives. Defensively, the good news is that Arizona does not run a pistol offense, and that running the ball really isn't their forte. They're going to pass the ball, and don't be surprised if they primarily want to test sophomore CB Marc Anthony, a first year starter. As a unit, Arizona represents the secondary's biggest challenge of the year thus far.
Prediction: Cal fans shouldn't get their hopes up for this one. All signs point towards the Bears heading home with a 2-2 mark.
Cal Vs. UCLA
2 of 9
Recent History: Cal is 4-4 against the Bruins under Tedford, including a 4-0 mark at home. The Bears have won the last two meetings, scoring over 40 points in each of them.
UCLA Scouting Report: The Bruins are currently 1-2, but their first win of the season came this past weekend against No. 23 Houston. It was UCLA's first win against a ranked opponent in more than two years. Head coach Rick Neuheisel has implemented a new pistol offense this season, which has caused some hardships for sophomore QB Kevin Prince. He has a 74.49 rating, and 4 INTs already (half of his 2009 total). Sophomore RB Johnathan Franklin has stepped in nicely for the injured Derrick Coleman, tallying 291 yards on 50 carries. Against Houston, he racked up 158 yards and all 3 of his TDs. On defense, the Bruins have several star players who can all impact the game. At 6'4" and 255 lbs, Junior outside linebacker Akeem Sayers is a beast of a man, and is projected to be a first round pick in next year's NFL draft. At his side is sophomore LB Patrick Larrimore, who has a team-best five tackles for loss. In the secondary is junior safety Rahim Moore, whose 10 INTs led the nation in 2009. He has only one so far this year, which indicates that offenses are avoiding him.
How the Bears Can Win: It is doubtful that anybody in the Bears locker room wants to hear the words "pistol offense" ever again. That being said, the Bruins' version of it shouldn't be nearly as formidable as the Wolf Pack's. UCLA averages only 303 yards a game, essentially half of what Nevada can put up in any given game. That obviously bodes well for the Bears on defense. Despite all their star defenders, UCLA has had its issues stopping people. They've allowed an atrocious 632 yards rushing over three games, 234 of which went to Kansas State's Daniel Thomas (currently second in the nation in running). A good back like Shane Vereen should be able to pick them apart.
Prediction: Gotta love the Bears at home. They'll take a 3-2 mark down south to face the Trojans.
Cal at USC (20)
3 of 9
Recent History: Cal has a 1-7 record against the Trojans under Tedford, and he has yet to win at USC in four tries. USC has claimed the last six meetings.
USC Scouting Report: USC has nothing to play for in 2010 or 2011, but that hasn't stopped the Trojans from getting off to a strong 3-0 start. That being said, Lane Kiffin's USC squad hasn't really lit things up in any aspect of the game. They don't place higher than 34th in the FBS in any major offensive category, and their defensive averages (23.7 points and 411.7 yards per game) place them in the middle of the pack in the conference. Nonetheless, the No. 20 team in the nation is not to be taken lightly, and they have plenty of talented individual pieces. In his second year as a starter, sophomore QB Matt Barkley is well on his way to shatter his numbers from last season. He already has 9TDs and a rating of 161.17 (15 and 131.2 in 2009). Senior WR Ronald Johnson is a major speed threat who seems to make at least one grab for big yardage every game. They have several stars on defense, including junior linebacker Chris Galippo, a projected first round pick. Junior DT Jurrell Casey should probably be double-teamed at all times. Despite missing two years to a neck injury and an academic suspension, senior CB Shareece Wright is probably one of the better cover corners in the Pac-10.
How the Bears Can Win: This is probably the most vulnerable Trojan team that Tedford has had to face. And even though they do currently occupy a spot in the Top 25, and the Bears will be facing them on hostile ground, Cal has a very good chance to beat the Trojans for the first time since 2003. Not only are the Trojans notably weak on offense, they have also struggled on defense. They've allowed over 400 yards and 23 points per game against some pretty weak competition (Hawaii, Virginia, Minnesota). Sure, the defense will have to contain big plays off the arm of Barkley. But let's face it, after being held to a paltry 3 points in each of the last two meetings, it would be most satisfactory if the Bears score a bushel of touchdowns and embarrass the Trojans on their home turf.
Prediction: This is the year Tedford and the Bears get it done. Give them a 4-2 record going back to Berkeley to face the Sun Devils.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Cal Vs. Arizona State
4 of 9
Recent History: Cal is 6-1 against ASU under Tedford, and 3-0 at home. The Bears have won the last two.
Arizona State Scouting Report: After blowing out Portland State and Northern Arizona at home, Arizona State, perhaps surprisingly, more than held their own on the road at No. 11 Wisconsin. A blocked extra point with 4:09 left turned out to be the difference in their 20-19 defeat. Junior QB Steven Threet, who transferred from Michigan as soon as Denard Robinson signed (a good move, no doubt), has proved to be a much better fit with Dennis Erickson's pro style offense than Rich Rodriguez's run-first philosophy. His 841 yards passing are second only to Nick Foles within the conference, even with a pretty mediocre showing at Wisconsin. The big play threat is definitely there on offense; five different players have at least one catch of 35 or more yards. They have the potential to kill a team on returns as well. CB Omar Bolden had a 97 yard touchdown return on a kick-off against Wisconsin, and WR Kyle Middlebrooks added a 95-yarder of his own on the final play of the first half. They're just as dangerous on defense, particularly against the run (only 310 yards allowed so far). Much of their success against the run game can probably be attributed to junior DT Lawrence Guy, a 6'5" behemoth who also ran track in high school.
How the Bears Can Win: This is one of those games that looks like it could be an even match for the Bears, but will get away from them quickly. In addition to ASU's big play potential, one has to worry about the difficulty of running the ball against them. For a runner who loves to go between the tackles like Vereen, having to deal with Guy and the rest of ASU's formidable d-line could be a death knell for the Bears offense. Omar Bolden is no slouch as a cover corner, and his presence means that Riley might have trouble establishing a go-to guy like he did against Nevada with Marvin Jones.
Prediction: The vibes on this one probably don't feel right if you're a Bears fan. Expect them to take a 4-3 record to Corvallis.
Cal at Oregon State (24)
5 of 9
Recent History: The Bears are 2-6 against the Beavers under Tedford, with a 2-2 mark in Reser Stadium. The Beavers have won the last three meetings.
Oregon State Scouting Report: The first three games of Oregon State's schedule are probably the toughest of any FBS team. They gave No. 6 TCU everything they could handle, but lost 30-21. And now they're faced with a road tilt at No. 3 Boise State. But even if the Beavers do fall to 1-2, which is likely, they are still a very dangerous team. Everybody knows about the Brothers Rodgers, junior RB Jacquizz and senior WR James, and for good reason. The team has gained a total of 861 yards, the Rodgers boys are responsible for 351 of them. And James has added 275 more yards on kickoff returns. Defensively, they've allowed more than 450 in each of their first two games, a number that is not likely to decrease against Boise State. They're particularly vulnerable to the rush, allowing 278 yards on the ground to TCU and and 165 to Louisville; this despite having quite possibly the best DT in the country in Stephen Paea, whose impact is apparently easily contained by double-teams and runs outside the tackles. You see, all you have to do is avoid him entirely.
How the Bears Can Win: Even despite their tough schedule, the Beavers reek of an overrated team. Offensively, they're either better than they've shown, or they simply rely too heavily on Jacquizz and James Rodgers. And if you're the Bears, you have to be excited about going up against a team that has had trouble stopping the run. In addition, they also have trouble with mobile quarterbacks, allowing two rushing TDs to each of the first two quarterbacks who opposed them. If Riley can somehow find a pair of legs and follow their example, the Bears stand a good chance to win this game. Then again, that might be asking a lot of a guy with a career total of 4 rushing TDs and a long run of 27 yards. But stranger things have happened...
Prediction: The Bears pull off an upset on the road, and head north to Washington with a 5-3 record.
Cal at Washington State
6 of 9
Recent History: The Bears are 5-1 against the Cougars under Tedford, and have won both of their two games in Pullman (including a 66-3 drubbing in their last visit). The Bears have won the last five contests.
Washington State Scouting Report: There's really not much for Washington State fans and students to get excited about, unless matching last year's win total within the Cougars' first three games as real progress. They were knocked around on the road against Oklahoma State and Southern Methodist, but managed to edge the great Montana State at home by a single point at 23-22. They're giving up more than 450 yards and 40 points a game so far, and these numbers aren't likely to improve any time soon. If a silver lining must be found, then so be it. Freshman WR Marquess Wilson is doing alright, having reeled in four catches for more than 40 yards so far. No Washington State receiver had more then two such catches all of last season. Then there's sophomore QB Jeff Tuel, who has a 135.49 rating. Undersized senior DE Kevin Kooyman had a couple of sacks and forced two fumbles against SMU.
How the Bears Can Win: The only thing the Bears need to do in order to win this game is simply show up. By the time the Cal rolls into town, the Cougars will have played USC, Oregon, Arizona, and Stanford. So in all likelihood, the Bears will be facing a team with a collective soul that has been repeatedly crushed. And the Bears will have their chance to contribute. They should have no trouble exploiting Washington State's hopelessly inept defense. And while Tuel may be off to a solid start, he's also been sacked ten times. That's a number that should have Cameron Jordan licking his chops.
Prediction: Bears in a landslide. Back to Berkeley with a 6-3 record.
Cal Vs Oregon (5)
7 of 9
Recent History: Cal is 4-3 against Oregon under Tedford, and have beaten them in all three home tilts.
Oregon Scouting Report: You know you're good when you're head coach can look at a 69-0 win and call it "sloppy." Yes, Chip Kelly has quite the offense at his disposal. Here's Oregon's averages through three games: 611.7 total yards, 63 points. They've outscored their competition (if you can call it that) 189-13. That should be some kind of war crime. They do most of their damage on the ground, racking up 1,142 rush yards (2nd in the FBS) and 12 TDs. They currently have three guys (LaMichael James, Remene Alston, Jr., Kenjon Barner) who have rushed for more than 200 yards, and another who has run for 125 yards (Andres Reed). Each of the four has a long run of at least 35 yards. Their defense isn't too shabby either. Their 193.3 yards and 4.3 points allowed per game is tops in the nation. They already have two shutouts, the first time they've done that in a single season since 1964. As a unit, they're anchored by senior inside linebacker Casey Matthews, who comes from a true football family. He's tallied at least 65 tackles each of the last two seasons, and is not to be trifled with.
How the Bears Can Win: Umm... yeah...
Prediction: Oregon. Bears fall to 6-4.
Cal Vs. Stanford (16)
8 of 9
Recent History: Tedford, God love him, is 7-1 in the Big Game. Before he came on board, Stanford had won 11 of 13 between 1989 and 2001, including seven straight.
Stanford Scouting Report: The Cardinal is off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2001, Tyrone Willingham's final season before jumping ship to South Bend. And if they beat, speak of the devil, Notre Dame this weekend, the Cardinal will have their first 4-0 start since 1986. Good times if you're into that kind of thing (since you're reading this, you're probably not). As for how they're getting it done, it's rather simple: all Andrew Luck, all the time. Tabbed as a Heisman contender before the start of the season, Luck has not disappointed. He has 11 totals TDs through three games, and his 192.3 rating is good for fourth in the nation. He was particularly brilliant in Stanford's nationally televised tilt against Wake Forest, which can only help his Heisman campaign. The play of the offensive line has been superb. Not only has Luck not been sacked, but their work has also allowed the Cardinal running game to surpass expectations. Cardinal runners are averaging 8 yards a rush, and have scored 10 touchdowns. Defensively, they allow only 227.7 yards a game, which places them among the top 10 teams in the country. They have been especially rude to opposing passers, allowing a grand total of 270 yards through the air in three games.
How the Bears Can Win: Make no mistake, Stanford is the better team. They have a better offense and a better defense, and one of the best quarterbacks in the country. They should win this game. Funny, that was more or less the case last year. The Bears biggest hope is probably that Luck will repeat his performance from last year's Big Game, where he was simply dreadful. He completed only 10 of his 30 passing attempts, and his interception deep in Cal territory with less than two minutes left sealed the deal. In truth, if it hadn't been for Toby Gerhart and his 4 TDs, it would have been a blowout. Guess who's not around anymore? That's right. Guess who is? Shane Vereen, who used the Big Game to set a then-career high with 193 yards on the ground. Fun times.
Prediction: Whose axe? Our axe! The Bears upset the Cardinal again and take home the axe for the third straight year. 7-4 heading into the final game of the season.
Cal Vs. Washington
9 of 9
Recent History: The Bears are 6-2 against the Huskies under Tedford, with a 3-0 mark at home.
Washington Scouting Report: Coming off a 56-21 beatdown by Nebraska in their own stadium, things don't look so hot for the Huskies at the moment. They've had all sorts of trouble stopping the run, allowing a ridiculous 641 yards in three games. Nebraska in particular torched the Huskies for 383 yards and 6 TDs on the ground, and had three players rush for more than 100 yards. Meanwhile, Jake Locker, who many thought could be a surprise Heisman contender, hasn't got off to a good start. He was simply awful against Nebraska, finishing the game at 4-of-20 for a mere 71 yards, 45 of which came on a single pass that benefited from busted coverage. On the bright side, junior WR Jermaine Kearse is doing very well thus far. He has 16 grabs for 338 yards (best in the conference), and has caught a touchdown in seven straight games going back to last season.
How the Bears Can Win: Locker may be a disappointment thus far, but the Bears should know better than anyone that this doesn't mean he's not dangerous. The Washington QB tore the Bears' defense apart in last season's 42-10 victory in the final game of the season, passing for 248 yards and three TDs, and adding 77 more yards and two more TDs on the ground. He's the kind of mobile quarterback that is liable to give the Bears fits (see Colin Kaepernick). In addition, the Bears also had their trouble with Jermaine Kearse last year. He caught 7 balls for 147 yards, and his 40-yard touchdown on Washington's first possession essentially opened the floodgates. No matter what the Bears do on offense, they're going to have to contain these two if they want to win the game.
Prediction: That duo is just too good of a matchup for Washington. They win it. Bears finish the season 7-5, and probably end up in some obscure bowl game. Again.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
