The Last Big Ten Breakdown of the Preseason

Welcome to the 2010 College Football season!  It's finally about time to kick off another great year of football and I, for one, can't wait! 

Most prognosticators wrote their preseason predictions months ago.  I guess I'm a little behind the curve on this one, but I wanted to wait and see what might shake out with position battles, suspensions/dismissals, etc.  

Now that we've got the best look we're going to get before the first kick of the season, I guess it's time to put my money where my mouth is, so to speak.

So, without further ado, here's my breakdown of the Big Ten for the 2010 season.

No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2)

The very skinny: Ohio State was a loss to USC and a gaffe to Purdue away from perfection last year.  In the end, losing to USC was less forgiveable than previously thought and dropping to Purdue would haunt them into this year. 

Still, they bring back QB Terrelle Pryor, a stable full of good running backs and wide receivers, and have a defense that should be as good as it was last year.  There's no reason to think the team is taking any steps backward.

Key Returner: QB Terrelle Pryor

You could pick any one of a dozen people for this category and make a solid argument.  However, the ultimate hopes of this team really relies on the performance of Pryor.  If he doesn't show a little more depth, then there's no reason to expect anything bigger than what they achieved last year.  

On the other hand, if he shows the same fire power with his arm that he did during the spring game, the Buckeyes could be looking at a return to a National Championship game.  Like it or not, it's on his shoulders to lead this team to the promised land. 

The Ceiling: National Championship Bowl

They're starting the season ranked No. 2 in the Coaches Poll, putting them firmly in the driver's seat for a National Championship run.  They have the tools in place and a coach to lead them there.  It'll be a tougher than usual road through the Big Ten, but they've won (or shared) five straight conference titles.  Taking the next step to return to a National Championship appearance is a no-brainer.

The Basement: 9-3

That's easily as possible a national title is.  The Buckeyes get Miami (FL) on September 11th, travel to Wisconsin on October 16th, host Penn State on November 13th, and travel to Iowa City on November 20th.  Any one of those teams could upend the Buckeyes, and don't forget that they did inexplicably drop a match against Purdue...Purdue.

What's Realistic: Anywhere between the two

I'd lean a little more toward the ceiling, but don't be overly surprised if they end up closer to the basement prediction.  It'll be a tough road to get to Glendale.

Key to Success: Ohio State has to keep their focus.

Of course they're going to focus on Miami.  Of course they're going to be ready to play Wisconsin.  Of course they're going to be fired up to play Penn State and no doubt they'll be red hot when they take on Iowa.  It's the "other" games against Purdue, at Minnesota, and "The Game" against Michigan that they need to stay focused for. 

My Prediction: 10-2

This is a fantastic team, to be sure.  However, this is a tough conference this year, and Miami won't be easy either.  Ohio State tends to make their own luck, as great teams do, but this year will take a lot of grit and a ton of focus.  Somewhere along the way, they'll be upset, and I'm betting it'll happen twice. 

They'll tie for the conference title for the last time before Nebraska joins the fray and the Big Ten adds a championship game to settle it.  Since they went to the Rose Bowl last year, the invite will go elsewhere this time, and the Buckeyes will instead go to another BCS bowl (Fiesta?). 

They'll buckle down and win their bowl game to finish 11-2 again.

No. 10 Iowa Hawkeyes (11-2)

The very skinny: The Hawks weren't expected to do much better than 8-4 last year, but instead started out 9-0 before dropping a couple of heartbreakers to Northwestern and Ohio State.  They still capped it all off with a nice Orange Bowl victory to establish themselves as a true BCS contender.

They bring back a ton of talent, especially on defense where the line could be one of the best in the country.

Key Returner: SS Tyler Sash

You thought I was going to say Adrian Clayborn didn't you?  Certainly, Clayborn deserves all of the accolades he's getting.  However, the entire line is strong and (sacrilege for even saying it) even if Clayborn wasn't there, the rest of the line would be something to fear.

Iowa lives and dies according to the strength of their defense and, this year, the biggest question is with the secondary.  Sash may have to be just about everywhere at once to keep the pass game under wraps.

The Ceiling: National Championship Bowl

Folks, if you haven't started to believe in this team yet, it's time.  They bring back one of the most charismatic quarterbacks around in Ricky Stanzi, have a ton of talent at receiver and running back, have one of the stoutest defenses in the country, and know that they still have to prove themselves to much of the country.

There are plenty of pitfalls along the road, but this team is no stranger to adversity.  With the majority of the focus on Ohio State, the Hawkeyes could very well be the team to shake up the Big Ten standings and represent at Glendale.

The Basement: 7-5

You read that right. 

In 2008 this team went 8-4 and they lost those four by a combined total of 12 points.  Last year, this team went 11-2 but won four games by a combined total of only eight points.  They've been on both sides of the "too close" coin over the last couple of years.  How many times can they play that close and still come out on top?

There are no fewer than eight teams on the Hawkeyes' schedule that I could easily see them losing to (too many to list here).  It would be absurd to think that they'd lose to all of them, but a key injury or two could leave the Hawkeyes in a world of hurt, and if they allow their No. 10 preseason ranking to go to their heads, expect a meltdown.

What's Realistic: A nine or 10 win season

There's far too much power on the defense to expect a complete meltdown and the offense could be much better than expected.  This team should get nine wins without breaking too much of a sweat.  However, expecting much more than that could be a fool's folly.  This team will be very, very good, but they have some tough competition along their road to a bowl.

Key to Success: Like Ohio State, Iowa has to stay focused.

From Iowa State to Arizona to Michigan State to Ohio State to...there are more places along this road that Iowa could trip up than there are easy victories.  If you looked at their schedule based solely on last year's records, you wouldn't think it was that tough at all.  Iowa has a nasty tendency though, of playing to the level of their competition.  Remember Northern Iowa?  Yeah...

My Prediction: 10-2

Believe it or not, this may well be the best team in the Big Ten (go ahead and argue Ohio State fans).  Time will tell if that's true or not, but they could be.  They should be in every single game they play all year long—including the Ohio State match in late November.

The Hawks will drop a couple (most likely ones they shouldn't), but will tie for the conference title.  Since Ohio State went to the Rose Bowl last year, Iowa will go this year.  Of course, they'll likely win since USC won't be there and the rest of the Pac-10 is a little suspect right now.

No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers (10-3)

The very skinny: The Badgers put together a good season in 2009, but fell short against the Big Dawgs of the conference (Ohio State and Iowa).  A later gaffe against Northwestern kept them from tossing their hat in the ring for a shot at the conference title.

They bring back All World running back John Clay and efficient QB Scott Tolzien.  A veteran offensive line should make this offense truly dangerous and their defense should be solid enough to keep them hanging tight with just about anyone.

Key Returner: QB Scott Tolzien

RB John Clay is a beast.  The problem is, everyone knows it.  Linebackers will play closer to the line than normal in an effort to slow the tank down.  That should give Tolzien better match-ups on the corners.  If he can maintain his 64.3 pass completion percentage from a year ago, it'll back those linebackers off just a bit and open up the run game even more. 

He has to do a little better job of managing those 11 interceptions though.

The Ceiling: National Championship Bowl

This may sound a little far-fetched, and maybe it is.  Consider though, that the schedule Wisconsin has is strongly in their favor. Other than an away game against Michigan State, there's virtually no one that should give the Badgers too much trouble until they face Ohio State and Iowa on back-to-back weeks on October 16th and 23rd respectively. 

If Wisconsin can hold serve through the games they should win and put together a couple of monster games against the league favorites, there's no reason they can't go undefeated this year.  It's a long shot, but stranger things have happened.  Missing Penn State again this year is a gift from the football gods.

The Basement: 7-5

This might be as much of a stretch as the ceiling is, but it's not that far out of the realm of probability either.  Michigan State should be better than last year; Northwestern knocked off the Badgers last year; and Purdue could actually be a thorny little bugger this year.  Of course, Ohio State and Iowa will be tough no matter how you look at them. 

If Wisconsin comes into this year looking solely at OSU and Iowa as their chief competition, they could easily overlook some trickly little matches that could turn a dream season into a nightmare.

What's Realistic: 9-3

I'm not convinced Wisconsin is in league with Ohio State and Iowa just yet.  Sure, John Clay is going to run through just about everybody, but Iowa did hold him down last year and Ohio State has enough guns on both sides of the ball to beat anybody in the nation.  I'm not comfortable picking the Badgers to beat either of those teams at this point.

Throw in an improved Michigan State, an improved Michigan, a Northwestern that beat them last year, and a Purdue team that could easily be overlooked and there's not much room for error for this team.

Key to Success: D-fense

Everybody's been talking about how powerful this offense will be, but if you want to win the Big Ten, you've got to have a stout defense to go along with it.  Ohio State and Iowa will have offenses capable of moving the ball against most opponents and Michigan could be an offensive juggernaut for all we know.  Dan Persa could light Northwestern's fire and Robert Marve could be the next Drew Breese at Purdue.  Don't forget Kirk Cousins at Michigan State either.

Simply put, there will be plenty of fire power on the offensive side of many teams this year in the Big Ten.  No, they may not be as flashy as some of the SEC teams or some of the Big 12 or Pac-10 teams, but they'll be good enough to make opposing defenses earn their keep.

If Wisconsin's defense doesn't show up ready for war, the Badgers could find themselves on the losing end of some higher-than-expected scoring games.

My Prediction: 9-3

Much like last year, Wisconsin will come out looking hot.  I expect a slip outside of the Ohio State/Iowa games, but will it be Michigan State, Michigan, or Northwestern?  Or will be someone else entirely? 

The Badgers will be out of the conference (and national) title hunt by mid-October, but they'll still get a decent bowl game.  Whether they win that one or not will depend on the opponent they face.  A high octane offense could negate John Clay and crew, but a slightly slower offense will play right into Wisconsin's hand. 

I'll throw them some love and predict a bowl win in Clay's final game as a Badger to finish 10-3 again this year.

No. 14 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2)

The very skinny: Largely lost in the shuffle after losing to Iowa early last year, Penn State put together a very nice season last year.  They were constantly one step behind the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes, but won the games they should have en route to a Capital One Bowl appearance against LSU. 

They break in a new quarterback and three new linebackers this year, but keep a solid core to build from.  Plus...this is Penn State.  It's not like they recruit horribly or anything.

Key Returner: RB Evan Royster

With all of the questions surrounding the new quarterback, Royster has to figure to carry the offense this year.  Forget the Spread HD—it didn't really work out anyway.  This should be old-school, Pro Style all the way, and Royster is the guy to make it work for the Lions. 

The Ceiling: The Rose Bowl

Here's the thing about Penn State—they can win in any given year.  They're not going to suck, let's put it that way.

Aside from a trip down south to play the defending National Champions, Penn State's schedule isn't too bad.  They have to make a trip to Iowa City to kick off conference play, but if they get past the Hawkeyes, they don't have anyone they can't beat until they travel to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes on November 13th. 

Michigan State at the end of the season could make things interesting, but by then all of the pieces should be in place and working as well as they're ever going to.  The Alabama game may take the Nittany Lions out of national title contention, but it does nothing to the conference race. 

Penn State has the schedule in place to make a concerted run at a trip to Pasadena.

The Basement: 8-4

I don't see Penn State losing to Michigan (sorry Wolverine fans), but a loss to Michigan State isn't entirely out of the question.  Iowa and Ohio State should give Penn State all they can handle and then some, and Alabama is Alabama. 

What's Realistic: 9-3

The Lions should make this a three-way race for the conference crown.  Again, the Alabama game doesn't count, meaning they could be 9-3 and still be the conference champions (or co-champions).  There are few teams on the rest of the schedule that should really give Penn State a run for their money.

Key to Success: The offensive line

Sure, that's a key to success for any team, but especially for Penn State.  Whoever their new quarterback (Kevin Newsome or someone else?) is, he'll need a little time to adjust to the system and work out his timing. 

Royster is also going to need a little running room if he's to carry the offense.  He's good, but he's no Barry Sanders.  He needs some blockers to make a little room to move.  Iowa and Ohio State will both bring a lot of heat up front and Greg Jones will eat everyone alive that comes close to him.  The Lions have to create a wall behind which Royster can run and the QB can operate.

My Prediction: 9-3

I chalk up Alabama, Iowa, and Ohio State as losses.  There are one or two others that could maybe challenge, but those are really the only ones I'd feel comfortable predicting to beat this team (and even they could potentially go either way).

Penn State will return to the Capital One Bowl where they'll pick up another nice win for the Big Ten to finish 10-3.

Michigan State Spartans (6-7)

The very skinny: The 2009 season was a complete bust.  The Spartans dropped three straight early in the year, dropped two more in late October and ended their season on yet another two-game skid.  To say it was disappointing would be the understatement of the year.  It was also likely an aberration.

They bring back a quality quarterback in Kirk Cousins and a monster of a linebacker in Greg Jones.  There are still a lot of questions to answer, but there are great reasons to hope.

Key Returner: QB Kirk Cousins

The talk, of course, has surrounded Greg Jones and well it should be. I don't mean to downplay his importance to this team.  However...

Michigan State has yet to find a real replacement for Javon Ringer (who departed after the 2008 season), putting more pressure on the QB to make things happen.  Cousins will be the face of this offense all year long.  Whether Michigan State enters the conference title race or whether they fight just to become bowl eligible will depend on what Cousins can do with that offense.

The Ceiling: 11-1

Looking at their schedule, there are only two teams that I would mark as absolute losses for Michigan State (Penn State and Iowa) and one of them required a last-second miracle to beat MSU last year.

The Spartans lost four of their games last year by eight points or fewer.  With the added experience they're returning this year, it's easy to expect that they'll come out on the winning end of more of those games this year.

The Basement: 6-6

There are some easy wins on this schedule (like No. Col on September 25th), but there are a ton of tricky games too (like Notre Dame on September 18th).  After last season, you have to wonder just who this team is, for sure.

What's Realistic: 8-4

As I said before, there were several close calls last year that the Spartans found themselves on the wrong end of. They should turn some of those around this year. 

However, between ND, Wisconsin, Michigan, NW, Iowa, Purdue, and Penn State there are some tough opponents to get through en route to a winning season.  I'd expect the Spartans to win some of those, but not nearly all of them.

Key to Success: A better defense is a must!

Kirk Cousins and company will do their part to make Michigan State a viable threat on offense.  If they can't stop anyone else from scoring though, it won't make a difference. 

Greg Jones will be an All-World linebacker, but will he have the support he needs?  That's something Michigan State will have to make sure of, or this could be another long year.

My Prediction: 7-5

The Spartans will be improved over last year.  However, their schedule isn't really as easy as it may look.  Most of the teams in the Big Ten will be improved too.  The talk in East Lansing is positive, but talk is cheap in August. 

I look for them to look pretty good through the first portion of the season, including a win over the Irish.  Things will come unraveled quickly as soon as they meet Wisconsin though, and won't get much better throughout the rest of the year.

They'll go to a mid-level bowl, but whether or not they'll win is anyone's guess at this point.

Northwestern Wildcats (8-5)

Prediction: 6-6 If they get a bowl invite, it doesn't look promising.

Michigan Wolverines (5-7)

Prediction: 6-6  They'll get a bowl because they're Michigan, and thanks to their offense, they'll win.

Purdue Boilermakers (5-7)

Prediction: 6-6 They won't be bowling, but they'll look a little better this year than last.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-7)

Prediction: 4-8  They've got a killer schedule and not enough talent to handle it this year.

Indiana Hoosiers (4-8)

Prediction: 4-8  A lot more of last year...

Illinois Fighting Illini (3-9)

Prediction: 2-10  The talent is questionable and Zook's coaching is even more questionable.  Bye-bye Zookster...

That's it from here.  Let me know what you think and Happy Bowl Hunting!