Lefty Shopping: Why Erik Bedard Is a Better Buy Than Johan Santana

There has been a tremendous amount of speculation about the future of Minnesota ace Johan Santana.

For all the hype, though, Santana may not be the pitcher to go after this offseason.

In fact, it seems clear to me that the most coveted hurler should be the Orioles’ Erik Bedard.

For the record, I'm not suggesting that Erik Bedard is a superior pitcher to Johan Santana. But I don’t think people fully understand how good Bedard really is.

Bedard began 2007 slowly, with an April ERA of 6.09. In 30 innings pitched, he gave up 39 hits—despite allowing just 13 walks and registering 43 strikeouts.

Pitchers who strike out 12.9 batters for every nine innings generally don't allow that many hits for any length of time. What that means is that Bedard's 6.09 ERA in April was a fluke—as it was proven to be by his performance over the next four months.

(Bedard missed September with a strained right oblique—an injury that should have no bearing on his prospects for future success.)

From May 4th through his final start of the season on August 26th, Bedard was unstoppable.

He pitched 141 innings, in which he gave up 102 hits (6.51 per nine innings pitched), struck out 179 (11.42 per nine), walked 44 (2.8 per nine innings), and produced an ERA of 2.62—a number that would have easily led the league had he maintained it for a full season.

The hits allowed per-nine would have been the 71st-best total of the postwar period—and, more impressively, the 13th-best since the modern offensive explosion began in earnest in 1993.

The K per-nine would have ranked Bedard 12th on the all-time single-season list. His WHIP of .9323 would have tied him with Pedro Martinez in 1997 for 59th all-time, and would have been the eighth-best since 1993.

Even given the somewhat small sample size, Bedard is a pitcher who's clearly capable of tremendous dominance.

Once again, I'm not trying to prove that Bedard is better than Santana. The real issue isn't who the better pitcher is—it's who it makes the most sense to trade for.

And one of the most important factors on that front is contract.

Johan Santana made $13 million in 2007. He has one year left on his current contract, and seems likely to demand something in the range of six years for $120-160 million.

Bedard, on the other hand, made barely one-third of Johan’s salary—$3.4 million in 2007. He has two years left on his current deal.

Which brings us to the crux of the debate:

Is Johan Santana more than twice as valuable as Erik Bedard?

According to Baseball Prospectus’ WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), Santana was worth 19.9 wins to the Twins over the past two years, while Bedard was worth 15.1 to the Orioles (in part due to time lost from non-arm-related muscle strains).

This five-win difference is nothing to sneeze at—but given the extra year on the contract, the amount of money saved, and the fact that Bedard has improved significantly in each of his four years in the majors, the decision seems like a no brainer.

While he doesn't yet have the marquee status of Johan Santana, Erik Bedard is the best option for a team in need of an ace this offseason.