USC Football Success Factors in 2010 And Beyond

USC dominated the Pac-10 for most of the past decade, but had an “off” year in 2009 finishing 9-4 and No. 24 in the final BCS rankings.

The offense was expected to have a rebuilding year but the defense started strong but faded badly as the season progressed.  The Pac-10 was much stronger than anyone expected in 2009, so much for predicting college football.

The 2010 preseason has been full of distracting drama for USC.

Pete Carroll left for the NFL, Lane Kiffin was selected as his successor, the NCAA gave out harsher sanctions than expected, Mike Garrett was replaced by Pat Haden as Athletic Director, and a nine person compliance organization was created headed by a VP with 30 years of legal experience.

Yet USC managed to have another very good recruiting year with 2011 looking good also.  Many believe USC has the best football athletes in the Pac-10.

Even with the controversy that coach Kiffin brings (especially for SEC fans), USC has one of the best coaching and recruiting staffs in the nation and a storied tradition that attracts great football athletes who seek the NFL.

The 2010 team believes it has a chance to go undefeated and win the Associated Press championship even though there is no bowl game due to NCAA sanctions.

The athletes appear more motivated and in better shape than in recent years.

The change in coaching staff had little impact to the team due to the previous USC coaching experience and similar philosophy.  There is a more intense, strict and structured environment, which is needed.

The offense, defense and special teams look better than 2009.  This may be the fastest USC team in years looking at all positions.

The Pac-10 is strong again in 2010, but this is no surprise to USC unlike 2009.

So, USC could end up undefeated in 2010 and win the AP national championship.   USC fans expect at least a better year than 2009.

But, not so fast!

USC’s success in the next few years will be determined by numbers.

USC has only 71 scholarship athletes according to most reports. The roster actually has 108 athletes with 34 walk-ons, leaving 74 scholarship athletes.  However, some are redshirting in 2010. 

It is possible that more will redshirt further reducing USC scholarship athletes this year.

Carroll did not use all 85 scholarships and usually maintained about 75-80 scholarships.  He could do this because of the quality of the athletes USC recruited.

This was the situation when Carroll left USC for the NFL.   But, the NCAA harsh sanctions may cost the Trojans 30 scholarship athletes over the next three years depending upon the appeal results.

Clearly Carroll didn’t expect these sanctions or he would have added more scholarship athletes.

USC will only have about 70 scholarships available each year through 2014 and then about 80 in 2015 assuming the following: no further red shirts, no season ending injuries, no more transfers, USC maximizes all scholarships available, and the NCAA does not reduce scholarship sanctions in the appeal.

Most of these are very optimistic assumptions so USC should expect less than 70 scholarship athletes available each year until 2015.

The key factor for USC during these years of reduced scholarships is INJURY.

Injury is always an important variable for any college team but teams like USC that have great athletes in every position in the depth chart usually do well. However, USC no longer has the numbers to sustain injuries especially in some critical areas.

The most vulnerable and important area for USC in 2010 is the offensive line.  USC had only five offensive linemen available in the spring, and injuries have continued in the fall camp.

USC has a very good offensive line when they are healthy.

If USC cannot control the line due to injuries, then the running and passing games will play poorly.  The defense will spend too much time on the field, and a tired defense usually breaks down in the second half.

USC has never won a championship without a very good offensive line.

Linebackers are another area where USC does not have depth, and injuries could take their toll. This was the weakness in the defense in 2009, but the starters have improved.

The secondary is also vulnerable because it is a young group led by senior Shareece Wright.  He has to stay healthy, and the other starters need to avoid injuries due to the inexperience of their back-ups.

There is also concern about running backs since Allen Bradford (knee bruise) and C.J. Gable (hamstring and shin soreness) were sidelined on Aug. 19. Only freshman Dillon Baxter (suspended for Hawaii game) and junior Marc Tyler rushed in the Aug. 21 scrimmage.

Small numbers of healthy athletes also increases the probability that they will be injured because there are few left to practice and play in games.

Kiffin knows this.  He changed his fall camp to not allow tackling except in some scrimmages.

No one knows how this will affect USC’s performance in football games, but it is a gamble that Kiffin was forced to take due to the lower number of scholarship athletes with 14 injured as of Aug. 13.

USC must have a good 2010 for two key reasons. This means at least 10 wins to improve over 2009.

First, it is important to recruiting in 2011-2013.  These are critical recruiting years because of the NCAA sanctions and USC has to get the best athletes during this time because of the limit to only 15 new scholarships each year.

Secondly, USC needs the support of its fans now more than ever.  A subpar 2010 will decrease fan support and create additional issues for the coaching staff and athletic director.

USC is on the road for four of its first six games including Stanford.  A great start gives hope that USC can prevail in tough home games against Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame and finish strong against UCLA in the Rose Bowl.

As an avid USC football fan for over 40 years I want USC to have a great 2010 season, but injuries will be the key factor.  This will continue to be the case through at least 2014.

USC must avoid injuries, especially to the offensive line, linebackers, and secondary to have a successful 2010 season.

This is going to be very hard to do.  But, anything is possible in college football, which is what makes it so much fun!