College Football Preseason Top 25: Why Boise State Will Get the #3 Spot

Since it seems to be a foregone conclusion that Alabama and Ohio State will take over the No. 1 and No. 2 spots (respectively) in the upcoming AP Poll, the big question is now who will get the No. 3 spot.

Who gets the coveted role of being the team that looms over the shoulder of the pre-season favorites to meet in the National Championship game.

The team that waits for the one blunderous error in order to get a chance at competing for a national title. 

Could it be Florida? Texas? Maybe Virginia Tech, TCU, or Oklahoma could be the shocking No. 3 spot.

But considering the title of this article and the photograph of a Boise State athlete on the cover, it's safe to assume my pick is going to be Boise State. 

So without further ado, let's take a look at how the 2010 AP College Football rankings will look come this Saturday. 

1. Alabama

With a returning Heisman Trophy winner in Mark Ingram running behind another amazing offensive line with Barrett Jones and William Vlachos (both pre-season All-SEC picks), it's hard to go against them offensively.

The biggest hurdle for Alabama will be their defense.  Only two starters are returning and the secondary is banged up or suspended.

Alabama's offense torched them in a pre-season intra-squad matchup for nine touchdowns through the air (for whatever that's worth).

If this trend continues into the season though, Alabama will need to put up 30- or 40-point games regularly to hold onto their No. 1 seeding. 

The other problem is the fact that they play in the SEC and have one of the toughest schedules of any school. Here are just some of the games they have to play:

Vs. Penn State, @ Arkansas, Vs. Florida, @ LSU, Vs. Auburn. 

Five ranked opponents. 

They can lose one of those games and still make it to the title, but it's still a lot of landmines they need to sideswipe to make it, not to mention the conference championship game which will surely pit them in a re-match against another worthy opponent.

2. Ohio State

I don't agree with Ohio State being #2. I think it should be Boise State.

But this is a prediction on what the AP Poll will do and I think they will give it to the Buckeyes.

Not that the Buckeyes are undeserving. If they aren't #2 they are clearly the #3 team in the country.  

It's hard to believe that despite two straight years in the Bowl Championship Series, Terrelle Pryor is still considered as having somewhat underachieved (mostly due to the ridiculous hype he received entering his college career).

That said, if he has underachieved in those first two years, than this year should be a national championship and a potential Heisman Trophy in the making. 

Nearly the entire offensive line of Ohio State, is returning which will open up the running game for the multitude of talented rushers in Ohio State's backfield.  

The defense is always solid under Jim Tressel as well, having finished in the top six of opponents' points per game in the past five seasons.  

Clearly the #2 slot is at worst a coin flip and at best a slight edge to Ohio State considering the past two years they have played tougher teams, so their experienced squad has arguably been through more than Boise State. 

3. Boise State

If anything proved why a playoff system was needed last year, it was the fact that those in charge of the BCS decided to put Boise State and TCU head-to-head instead of against teams where both Boise State and TCU could prove they belong. 

This year, both teams are starting out ranked high enough with a chance to get to the National Championship, and Boise State has all the firepower and experience to do it.  

Everyone from this team is coming back. Starting quarterback Kellen Moore (An insane 39 touchdowns to 3 interceptions in 2009) is back.

Jeremy Avery brings the speed from the backfield while Doug Martin brings the strength and they both bring back 1,900 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground.

Titus Young is a versatile receiver who also handles special teams plays with two kick returns for a touchdown last season, not to mention leading the team in catches and yards receiving.

And the defense allowed only 17 points per game and had a +21 turnover differential in 2009.  

Though their schedule is tougher this year, (Starting on the road at Virginia Tech) that's the advantage of having experienced players on the field. 

They've already been through the pressures of an undefeated season and a hard fought bowl game against TCU.  

If ever there was a season for a mid-major to make a run at a national title, it will be this team and this season.

4. Texas

Last year, Garrett Gilbert made his unexpected debut in unspectacular fashion during the National Championship game.  

Despite his four-interception performance, he did rally the team down 24-6 to bring the game within reach at 24-21.  

It's unfair to judge a freshman thrust into the biggest game of most any player's career without any warning. 

But Gilbert has tons of playmaking receivers at his disposal even with the absence of Jordan Shipley.  

Texas' offensive line is very strong and Mack Brown has said the defense is "the best defense he's had in 13 seasons at UT."   

Gilbert will be surrounded with a lot of support, so he should have some breathing room to make mistakes in his first full season as a starter, giving Texas a shot at the National Title.

5. Florida

This is one I also don't necessarily agree with, but I feel that this is where the AP Poll will place the Gators based on brand name.  

It's strange that a team trying to replace quite possibly the greatest college football quarterback ever to play is in such solid shape the following year.

That's because they have the very capable John Brantley. 

He's not going to run for many touchdowns, but he is a talented pure dropback passer who is capable of running the option fairly well.  

In his 16-game career backing Tebow up, he completed 71.1 percent of his passes for 645 yards, 10 touchdowns and only one interception.  

Surprisingly, the issues Florida face is not at quarterback, but at replacing the other playmakers from last year.

Can Omarius Hines replace Riley Cooper as Florida's leading receiver? Even harder shoes to fill are those of tight end Aaron Hernandez.  

Urban Meyer has talked about identity issues with this team in terms of not knowing what they've got. Who's going to step up and be the playmaker on offense and/or defense?

"We have a real clear understanding of what John Brantley can do," Meyer said. "It's the guys around him. We have a lot of talent. I can't list you the top six or seven playmakers in order. I know we have them.

"Instead of all the focus being on John, it's certainly not our focus. We're very well aware of what he can do."

As odd as it sounds, Tebow's position might not be the toughest hole to replace on this team entering 2010.

6. TCU

If TCU had won last year's Fiesta Bowl, would they be where Boise State is projected to be?

Quite possibly. Though they are not returning as many starters, they still have 16 coming back, including their starting quarterback and all three of their starting receivers.  

The defense will miss defensive end Jerry Hughes, but after being ranked the No. 1 defense in YPG allowed in the country last year. the Horned Frogs have capable players to fill in, not the least of whom is Tank Carder.

He was second on the team in tackles with 89 and third on the team with tackles for a loss with 10 of that variety,  

The defense should be terrific again, and the offense, with Andy Dalton at the helm, a quarterback who doesn't make many mistakes (23 touchdowns to 8 interceptions last year) is a good formula for success.

Dalton can trust his defense enough to know that he doesn't need to force anything and just take what he's given.  

TCU takes a solid, fundamental approach that could give them an outside chance at the title and a great chance at one of the premiere bowl games.

7. Virginia Tech

Arguably the best running-back tandem in the country with Ryan Williams and Darren Evans in the backfield, Virginia Tech is many analysts sleeper pick to go to the big game.

And the road there will all start with that first game against Boise State.  

Virginia Tech does have eight new starters on defense, but the coaching staff for VT consistently puts out a top 10 defense year in and year out.  

The running game will be the biggest strength of this team, but will it be enough should their inexperienced defense not be able to reign teams in?  

Controlling the football will be key for Virginia Tech's ability to succeed in 2010-2011.  

8. Nebraska

After a long departure from prominence due to Tom Osborne's absence as coach, Nebraska had a great season last year and were one second away from beating National Champion runners-up Texas.  

A lot of people feel Nebraska is over-rated if they are in the top 10, but they are bringing back a lot of talent, especially in the skills positions.

All three quarterbacks, all 12 rushers, 17 of 20 receivers (including their top three from last year and especially including Niles Paul, who is on the pre-season watch list for the Biletnikoff award, i.e. best receiver.) are returning this season.

And even though they lost the most dominant defensive end in college football in Ndamukong Suh, they still have a great secondary and one of the best cornerback tandems in Alfonzo Dennard and Prince Amukamara.  

Those two lock-up defenders should help with the transition of the defensive line should they struggle to reach the QB.  

Considering last year they had a lot of hard-luck close losses, it's not a large leap to say they can turn those into close wins.

Especially when you consider that their kicker Alex Henery is a pre-season watch for the Lou Groza, or best kicker award.

Nebraska is definitely a dark horse in my book. 

#9 Oklahoma

Yet again, another team I wouldn't rank as high as this, but this is what I believe the AP Poll will give them.  

The issue of Landry Jones at quarterback is a big one for Oklahoma, but an entire fall of training camp and being the number one focus of the coaching staff this season should help him play to a higher level than last year. 

An improved offensive line and running game with Demarco Murray could also help take some pressure off Jones.

However, other than Ryan Broles there still seems to be problems with the other receivers having butterfingers. This according to what Bob Stoops said following OU's final intra-squad scrimmage. 

The defense will be good as usual, with Travis Lewis and Ronnell Lewis (No relation.) at linebackers. Ronnell Lewis is filling in the spot of 4th round pick Keenan Clayton and according to many, at least in Oklahoma, he may be better than Clayton.  

Regardless, if Landry Jones improves and the receivers hold on to the ball, Oklahoma will be a lock for the BCS. 

#10 Iowa

Talk about getting by on the skin of your teeth.

Last year's cinderellas made a strong push for the national title with some miraculously close victories, but settled for a BCS bowl game when it was all said and done.  

They were perceived as over-achievers in 2009.  This year, the expectations are there, and Iowa has the talent to fulfill those expectations. 

Starting with their defensive line, which is quite possibly the best in the country with star defensive end Adrian Claybourn leading the way, they shut teams down up the middle consistently and this year will most likely be the same way barring any injuries.  Their secondary is also full of talent with two returning starters that helped Iowa cause so many turnovers that led to their amazing run.

Their running back situation is in flux with Brandon Wegher's return to the team still hanging in the balance and the injury to Marcus Coker's clavicle.   There's little depth here should anything happen to either Adam Robinson or Jewel Hampton, so Iowa will once again have to lean on their D to get them through the season.  

#11 Miami (FL)

Much like a lot of the teams we've discussed so far, The U's receiving corps is chock full of talent at the wide receiver position.

Leonard Hankerson and Aldarius Johnson are both tall, strong, athletic receivers who are over 6'2", nearly 200 lbs. and fast as can be (4.5 40 yard dashes.) 

The defense is returning a couple of key players in senior middle linebacker Colin McCarthy and junior cornerback Brandon Harris. They should anchor a solid defense.

The biggest problem for Miami is the running game, not because of the tails backs they have, but because of an inexperienced offensive line. Storm Johnson is looking like a breakout freshman, but if the O-line doesn't gel it could spell trouble for Miami.  

#12 WIsconsin

Just move out of the way when the Badgers run the football. Star running back John Clay is one of the best tailbacks in the country and could be a darkhorse Heisman candidate, especially with the offensive line he runs behind.  

The defense is above average, but the secondary could definitely use some improvement (55th in pass defense in the country last year.) 

Scott Tolzien is a solid quarterback and with a great running game that just gives him all the more room to make big plays with the play action fake.  

Offensively this team is about as good as it gets. 

Defensively it will be a bit of a struggle, but nothing the team can't overcome by running the ball and controlling the clock.

#13 Pittsburgh

Pitt is a very well-balanced team. They have star players at four positions, two on each side of the ball. Offensivley they have a strong running attack that showcases Dion Lewis, who ran for nearly 1,800 yeards last year, and a great wide receiver in Jon Baldwin.  

Their defense is headlined by defensive end Greg Romeus, a player who could've entered the NFL draft and been chosen in the early rounds but decided to stay another year. They also have a hard-hitting playmaker in Dom DeCicco at safety. 

The biggest problem for Pitt is that their quarterback position is not looking good. The fact that they are going to red-shirt freshman Tino Sunseri to start this season is definitely signs of a problem.  

Despite that, they are solid in every other aspect of the game, giving Sunseri, much like Garrett Gilbert of Texas, some breathing room to learn and make mistakes while the team still wins.  

#14 Oregon

How much can a team go through in one year and still be this good the following year? 

After the opening game incident at Boise State losing their star running back for a large portion of the year last season, they lost their star QB Jeremiah Masoli over the off-season due to his run-in with the law. 

What was supposed to be an offense with tons of fire-power now has question marks at the QB position. 

Much like the aforementioned Pitt and UT teams, Oregon has plenty of weapons returning including last year's freshman sensation LaMichael James (who will miss the first game of the season due to a suspension, go figure.) 

Regardless, they are strong at the skills positions which will help whoever takes over at the helm.  

The defense is a bit undersized but has plenty of speed on the line including defensive end Kenny Rowe who had 11.5 sacks last year.  

If they had Masoli, they would be a national title contender, but as it stands they are a potential BCS team. 

#15 Georgia Tech

Unlike a lot of the other teams we've discussed, Georgia Tech is solid at the QB position, but lost two big time playermakers at running back (Jonathan Dwyer) and wide receiver (Demaryius Thomas).

They still have a quirky offense that runs a triple option devised by coach Paul Johnson.  Quarterback Josh Nesbitt is a perfect fit for this style of play as is center Sean Bedford.

The defense is returning with two star corner cover men in Jerrard Tarrant and Mario Butler so they have experience on that side of the ball.  

Depending on if the offensive side of the ball develops some playmakers such as Louisville transfer Anthony Allen, then Georgia Tech could have a double-digit win season again.

#16 Arkansas

This is my favorite team in the top 25. With Ryan Mallett coming in to be an offensive spark plug, the Razorbacks are looking to be one of the highest scoring teams in the country. 

Mallett is a traditional QB. A pure passer who hangs in the pocket, sells pump fakes well, and has one of the best arms in D-1. 

Add the fact that Arkansas has 8 starters on offense returning and it seems like they are set to put on a show out there in Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. 

The defense was nothing to write home about last year and considering they play in the best conference in football it will be tough to stop the likes of Mark Ingram and Cam Newton. But if they can pull off an upset or two they may move themselves up into the elite of the SEC.  

#17 USC

No Coaches poll ranking. No Bowl game eligibility.  Lane Kiffin is their head coach.  

Nothing has gone right for the Trojans this past year.  But they still will get a couple more good seasons before their program completely falls off the deep end. And it certainly helps that Matt Barkley has this season and next as the team's starting quarterback.  

Their backfield is stacked with talent and experience. Two seniors, one junior, and prized freshman running back Dillon Baxter (Who will miss the first game due to suspension.) 

The defense has a star defensive tackle in Jurrell Casey coming back, but the secondary is in transition, which could be a problem when facing Stanford or Hawaii, two pass-heavy teams they face on the road.  

Regardless, the program is on the way down, so they should enjoy this season and next as much as they can.

#18 LSU

Another program that has fallen a bit off the radar is the LSU Tigers. In another conference they would probably be the best team, but when Alabama and Florida are two teams you must play every year, it makes it hard to contend for a national title. They should do something about that, like a play...on? Play-on? Is that the word I'm looking fo-...Anyhow, back to LSU and 2010.

Ignore the tough conference for a second and let's just look at the team on paper. 

Jordan Jefferson did a quality job at QB last year, though nothing spectacular. According to reports he struggled early in camp, but is still the choice at starting QB. 

Quarterback turned wide receiver, Russell Shepard, can help the team in a litany of ways, including the ability to run the wildcat with him behind center. 

The defense is quality with four key starters returning including corner back Patrick Peterson and safety Brandon Taylor, making LSU's pass defense very tough to get by.  

LSU's lower ranking is due more to the conference they are in than the lack of talent.  

Having to play at home versus Alabama, then on the road against Auburn, Florida, and Arkansas is just too much.  If they finish the season with only two losses it will be a real achievement. 

#19 Florida State

For the first time since 1976, Bobby Bowden will not be on the sidelines for the Florida State Seminoles.  

The program is on the upswing and has 90% of it's offensive production returning to continue that trend. 

Christian Ponder is considered to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and has every offensive linemen returning.  

The problem is their defense, returning only four starters. Three of their four players in the secondary are very inexperienced and defensive coordinator Mark Stoop will try and cover for the team's deficiencies by using a zone scheme rather than man-to-man. 
They are going to get blown by in a lot of games and will have to rely on Ponder and the rest of the offense to keep pace.

Florida State will have a good year and a chance at double-digit wins, but a 9-4 finish seems more likely with a high end bowl game.

#20 North Carolina

Defensively, this team is as good as it gets.  

They have five players on the pre-season All-ACC team. Defensive End Robert Quinn, Defensive Tackle Marvin Austin, Linebacker Quan Sturdivant, Cornerback Kendrick Burney and Safety Deunta Williams.  

Unfortunately, there won't be much scoring being done on the other side of the ball for UNC either. 

The offense is standard and since Hakeem Nicks left they haven't been able to find a playmaker to replace him.  

Expect a lot of low scoring affairs for UNC.

#21 Penn State

This may be a bit of a low rank for Penn State, but the new quarterback stepping in, Kevin Newsome, doesn't seem to be the elite QB Daryll Clark was.

The Nittany Lions will go to Evan Royster quite a bit, but the offensive line for this team is also suspect. 

Defensively they lost five of their front seven, and though the talent coming up the pipe is good, it's still a tough transition, especially considering that they are going to have to cover for an offense that will struggle a great deal. 

Toss that in with matchups against Alabama, Iowa, and Ohio State and there's practically no breathing room to mess up against a smaller school.  

#22 Auburn

A team that is a big sleeper to rise up in the SEC this season. They have a potent offense and despite losing their starting quarterback and running back, Auburn is expected to pick up where they left off (Averaging 33.3 points per game and 432 yards per game).

The biggest reason why it's believed Auburn's offense will continue to surge is the arrival of former Florida Gator Cam Newton at quarterback. Put him alongside Mario Fannin, a tailback that is a great combination of speed and power as well as a good receiver out of the backfield (coming in second on the team in receptions.) and you have a solid offense again. Fannin does tend to fumble the ball a bit and is somewhat of a health risk, but overall Auburn looks great offensively.

The defense ranked last in the SEC in points allowed and second to last in total defense this past year, but they are returning 8 starters who now have experience under their belt, and they also have depth to back them up, unlike last year. 

Auburn, like Arkansas, is a team on the rise back to prominence, and this year they could pull an upset or two.  

#23 Oregon State

With Barry Sanders light in the tiny yet tough to tackle Jacquizz Rodgers leading the pack, Oregon State returns 15 starters and has their best shot at finally winning a PAC-10 title, now that USC's program has returned back to Earth and Oregon lost it's star quarterback.  

The defense is the biggest thing holding the team back. They only have a +5 turnover differential and had only 8 interceptions in 2009. They need to make more plays than that to put themselves atop the conference.

That said, their rushing attack will help put them in a great position to be conference champs with Rodgers and a great offensive line paving the way. 

#24 Georgia

Last year, Georgia beat themselves more than anyone else beat them. They were last in the SEC and 118th nationally in turnover margin. 

They return a lot of great talent such as tailback Washaun Ealey and wide receiver A.J. Green. The offensive line is also nothing to scoff at, but the quarterback position is still something to be concerned with. The freshman Aaron Murray is an elite prospect, but playing in the SEC is something you need to be eased into, so Logan Grey will most likely handle the duties for the time-being. 

Defensively they are switching to a 3-4 defense and will use a lot of blitz packages, but the question is if they have the personnel to use it effectively. 

Still, Georgia should put up a good fight in the SEC East.

#25 Utah

The Utes are the last team to round out the AP Poll.

The offense is in good shape, but the defense has been decimated.

The secondary only has one returning starter in cornerback Brandon Burton who is not an elite player. 

Utah will have to rely on it's very strong running game that boasts two senior tailbacks, Eddie Wide and Matt Asiata, as well as a very strong, experienced offensive line. 

The wide receiver position is a little thin, and the quarterback position is still fluid with senior Terrance Cain taking a backseat to young upstart Jordan Wynn who had an incredible performance in the Poinsettia bowl last season.

It's nice that the Utes have depth at QB, and Wynn can play as can Cain, but due to the potentially poor defense, it looks like Utah will be playing kill the clock to keep the defense off the field or having to outscore teams in 30 or 40 point affairs.

That's all for the predictions, and not a minute too soon.

Now time to see how wrong they were in a mere few hours.