Les Miles' Resurgent 2010 Tigers - With "The Hat's" Players

Any honest college football fan knows that winning a national championship requires good players, good coaches and good fortune. Subtract any of the three, and as Lee Corso would say, "Forget about it."

So, how have these areas combined, for good or bad, over the successful and not-so-successful seasons in recent LSU history?

Was Nick Saban a "good coach" while winning the 2003 national championship at LSU and Les Miles just a "lucky coach" with the 2007 LSU championship team? 

Before firming up your judgment call, let's explore the 2000-2009 time-frame and see what happened—and why—as a path to determining whether the 2010 Tigers will be resurgent, mediocre or poor.

2003-2007:

In 2003, Nick Saban brought LSU to the promise land, and other than a few residual players from the Gary Denardo era, won that title with a team of talented players he personally lured to the LSU campus. As such, everyone broadly believes Saban won with "Saban's Players."

In 2007, Les Miles brought LSU to the promise land with his own formula, a somewhat quirky one at that.  While you can argue whether going for all those fourth down conversions against Florida were wise decisions (or not), what you cannot argue with is that they were all required to win that game, and thus Les's calls were required for LSU to win the national championship in 2007.  Yes, Pitt beating WVU was a fortunate break, facilitating the first two-loss team to have a shot at the title in the BCS era. That is the epitome of the "good fortune" aspect. But as stated, good fortune is always required, so get over it, and give the man his due.

{Note: Indeed, fortune comes in various forms, and is always required to win a championship along the way. Talk to Texas fans about the break Saban got in 2009 when four-year starting UT QB Colt McCoy got hurt, gaving Bama the good fortune of facing an unproven young QB in the 2009 BCS championship game, facilitating Nick Saban's 2nd BCS Championship. Once again, just like LSU, Bama's national championship required good fortune, good coaching and good players. If you have trouble with the Bama national championship - get over it, because it is legitimate, good fortune-enabled or not.}

So good fortune is, and was, needed - but what about the good talent and good coaching portion?

When it comes to talent, Les has proven to be just as good of a recruiter as Saban in terms of talent lured to the "Ponderosa", but most feel that Matt Flynn, Glenn Dorsey, Craig Steltz and Jacob Hester -- all "Saban's Players" who were all very pertinent to LSU winning it all --had both talent AND character. And many people feel that it was more the character of the Saban-recruited players, than it was Les Miles' good coaching, that led to the 2007 National Championship formula.

Both sides of this argument have some merit, so let's just agree to disagree at this point if we fall on opposite sides of such an argument. 

So, at the conclusion of the 2007 season, everyone was wondering how much luck and how much genius LSU possessed in Coach Miles.

Let's see what insights the 2008 and 2009 Les Miles-coached team provides on the way to assessing the fortune of his 2010 LSU team.

So what happened to LSU in the two years following the 11 wins in 2005, the 11 wins in 2006, and the 12-win national championship in 2007?  Well, it wasn't pretty, as LSU suddenly went down pretty quickly to just 8 wins in 2008 and 9 wins in 2009.

What more proof do you need to win the argument that Les was fortunate in 2005-2007; that he was more "lucky" than good? It is clear, isn't it? 

Sure seems that way—until you look under the hood, as there is more than meets the "national media eyes" when you really look below the surface?

And if  "good players", "good coaches," and "good fortune" are required, which parts went most wrong over this two year span? Or did they all turn sour at the same time?

Here are some of the known reasons (not a complete list, but enough to give you insight into the problems) that LSU dropped to eight wins in 2008.

1) Bad Decision on Co-Defensive Coordinators—After losing Bo Pelini to Nebraska, Miles made what proved to be a very poor decision, surely motivated by good intentions, but his good intentions led LSU fans to football hell in 2008. The defense became anything but lucky and good with this formula, and no one disagrees with that. 

2) No experience at QB—Les had the bad fortune of having to kick off the team the expected starting All-Star QB, Ryan Perilloux, the MVP of the 2007 SEC Championship game, leaving the cupboard bare at the most critical position on the roster. Most everyone knows the result - freshman Jarrett Lee had one helluva tough time as QB. Nuff said about that.

3) Loss of Key Players—Ah hah, you say, I told you so! But, let me clarify. Other than the QB, I am not referring to the talent level, as Les Miles has equaled Saban in recruiting in terms of the average "star ratings" in his time at LSU.  As such, I am referring to the loss of character and leadership within the players, not pure football talent alone. The loss of Senior's like fifth-year QB Matt Flynn, Award-winning DT Glenn Dorsey, and Guts-and-Glory running back Jacob Hester --all experienced character guys who offered significant leadership -- left a size-able leadership hole in the 2008 team roster. Indeed, "Saban's Players" were leaving the roster, and the impact was very noticeable. The talent that remained was "damn strong", but the roster really lacked character and leadership, and that showed significantly in the resulting eight-win season.

So, in 2008, the defense was on the field all day, giving the struggling freshman QB no support, and poor field position throughout the season. When this is combined with the lack of player leadership, the eight-win season is actually much less surprising.

Had Les Miles' luck run out, and did his loss of "Saban's players" equate to the unveiling of a fraudulent winning football coach? Let's see what happened in 2009.

So, how was LSU to recover and get back on track? and could LSU recover?

First, Les worked on the "good coaching" part, successfully luring long-term Defensive guru "Chief" Chavis from Tennessee. In his first year at LSU, Chief turned things around considerably, and the defense quickly became the strength of the LSU team.

Second, Miles opted to go with Sophomore Jordan Jefferson ("JJ"), a QB who stepped into the 2008 Chick-fil-A bowl in replacement of Jarrett Lee, and looked like a world-beater in the LSU thrashing of the GaTech defense.

With these two changes in hand, many at LSU felt it had its problems solved, but did they?

Well, even though the defense shaped up, the offense went south, finishing 2009 112th out of the 120 FBS offenses.

The problems had shifted, not been solved. So, on balance, what went wrong in 2009?

1) Offensive Line—2009 was the year when things stacked up to worst case for this all-important unit. In the time leading up to the 2009 season, an inordinate number of casualties resulted in one of the weakest Offensive lines in recent Tiger football history. A combination of transfers, failures to qualify, and behavior issues resulted in the loss of no less than 6 talented offensive linemen, all of who should have been part of the 2009 unit. This left the team with a smallish, less-than-typically-talented unit that lacked depth and experience. Since "it all starts up front", LSU was destined to struggle in 2009, despite rhetoric from Miles that claimed this to be his best Offensive Line in his time at LSU. 

2) QB, once again—As stated, the jury is un"fortunately" anything but decisive on JJ as the QB solution, as he put up "ok" passing statistics in 2009, but took a large number of sacks, seemingly gun-shy to avoid the interceptions that he saw Jarrett Lee throw in 2008. The Sophomore failed to show convincing evidence that LSU had a solution at QB. Of course the Offensive line was hardly his friend, but nonetheless.

3) Coaching—Here is where Les Miles comes into question. While fixing the defensive coordinator position in 2009, the coaching on the offensive side of the equation came into glaring focus. Unlike the defense, the offensive unit now looked below par 2 years in a row. Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton's offense stalled out more times than not in 2009, and who can forget the Les Miles' decision breakdown against Ole Miss? Point conceded on the wrong side of the "good coaching" part for the 2009 season.

4) Running back injuries down the stretch—In addition to Richard Murphy missing the entire season, Charles Scott and Keiland Williams suffered injuries in key late-season conference games. These two senior running backs also had a tough job due to the poor Offensive line, and it all added up to another reason why the offense struggled so mightily. What most viewed as an expected strength at the beginning of 2009, turned out to be anything but.

The Future—beyond the 2008 and 2009 setbacks:

So, we know that a combination of issues made for a very unpleasant 2008 and 2009 season for LSU Tiger fans. We know that the alignment of the three-pronged formula of good coaching, good players and good fortune had suddenly gone terribly wrong.

So, just why would anyone think that things are going to improve in 2010, and beyond?

Hypothetical outcomes: 8-or-fewer wins, 9 wins, or 10-or-more wins. What will we see?

Eight wins in 2010 would make a firm pattern, with 11-11-12-8-9-8 as the total for a 6-year span. Most feel "The Hat" would be a goner if this occurs, and this would also seal the deal on the Saban vs Miles argument, as the trend would be hard to ignore.

However, a 10 win 2010 would indicate a favorable pattern, and possibly portend for a run at the title in 2011, when the roster will once again be on par with the 2003 and 2007 seasons, and when the schedule sets up in the every-four-year manner to the LSU favor -- inclusive of New Orleans hosting the championship.

How about nine wins ? - Most agree that nine is the awkward number of wins that will likely leave Miles at the helm, and Tiger fans in consternation once again.

So, let's see what factors could aid in moving to the 10-or-more win level. 

Here are 10 things to consider before making the seemingly plausible conclusion that the Tiger train is going to stay off-track:

1) Defense—Chief Chavis brought LSU back to a respectable performance, instilling discipline and scheming that proved he still had a formidable defensive strategy. In his upcoming second year, Chief has a cat-quick blend of highly-talented players, led by two strong leaders in Sr linebacker Kelvin Shephard, and All-everything CB Patrick Peterson. Chief has all the ingredients in place to wield his formula to a high level of success, so expect LSU's defense to return to the level of the 2003 and 2007 national championship teams, or at least approach that level of defensive performance. 

2) Player Leadership and Character—These same two players, Shephard and Peterson, along with Sr DL Drake Nevis, will bring that Sabanesque brand of talent, character and leadership back to the LSU roster. Add in high-character playmaker Russell Shepard, and two Junior QB's to the equation. If this leadership manifests itself as expected, this time it will be 100% Miles's players bringing this combination of fire, leadership and talent to the gridiron.

3) Offensive Line—After the 2009 debacle at Offensive line, no one should be over-confident that the 2010 Offensive line is going to be the best in the SEC. However, LSU now has much more size, experience, depth and talent in the Offensive line unit, and also has brought back 2003 national championship center Ben Wilkerson to sure up the coaching formula. The line looks to be significantly better in 2010.

4) Improved Coaching—Coach Miles surely did not have his best season, and especially had a bad day against Ole Miss in front of the whole nation. Will things improve? Yes.  Miles has brought in Billy Gonzales and Frank Wilson, and the organization of the offense is showing really good improvement. Expect Gonzales to play a notable role in solving that clock management issue, so don't expect the 2009 poor coaching pattern to repeat itself in that area. Gary Crowton still has his work cut out to convince LSU fans that his complicated wizardry is workable, but with more experience at QB and an improved Offensive line, and the help of new coaches on offense, the offensive coaching and real-time decision making should improve in 2010.

5) Offensive-Receivers—What other team can boast three 5-star players as their starting receivers? Senior Terrance Toliver is finally the primary receiver, and amazingly talented Sophomores Rueben Randle and Russel Shepard, a convert from QB, are shaping up to be a very special group. It truly is not a stretch to project all three of these receivers as future 1st round NFL selections. And opposing defenses had better not leave TE Deangelo Peterson uncovered, because this athletic target will be one of the best TE's in the SEC.

6) Strong Special Teams play—LSU returns Placekicker/Punter Josh Jasper, who is a strong performer, and should continue good punt and kickoff coverage with many speedy and talented players. On the surface, many are concerned over the loss of speedster Trindon Holiday as kickoff returner, but super athlete Patrick Peterson has speed of his own and is slated to take this assignment, so don't be expecting a drop off.

7) Running Backs—Junior Stevan Ridley showed he was a legitimate SEC RB in the 2009 Bama game, when injuries forced his appearance, but one should pause before figuring that he will be the only force to be reckoned with in 2010. Senior Richard Murphy is now fully healthy, and freshman Michael Ford is nothing less than a freak that possesses power and runs a 4.4 forty yard dash. Ford and Ridley resembled Bama's Ingram and Trent Richardson in the LSU spring game, and LSU fans will contend that is more due to the similarity in talent level than it is due to any holes in the LSU defensive unit. Freshmen RB Alfred Blue and 5-star Spencer Ware are making a lot of waves also.

8) Improved QB play—Yes, expect it to be improved. But will it be enough? The significantly improved Offensive line, strong receiver corp, and strong RB corp mean that 10 out of 11 offensive unit members are expected to be strong in 2010, but what about the most important of the 11, the QB?  These improvements, along with more experience in Junior's Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee, and the acquisition of Florida's Billy Gonzales to the offensive coaching formula, lay the foundation for much better protection for pass and run plays, So, expect the QB position to be at least SEC average, and potentially significantly improved. 

9) Play-maker Russel Shepard—Movement of speed burner and play-maker Russel Shepard to receiver, with use of him at wildcat also, is an exciting move. He is a super special play-maker, and after LSU fans watched his 6+ yards per carry inexplicably stay on the sidelines for the entire Bama and Penn State losses, LSU fans finally believe "The Hat" when he says Shep will be a significant part of the LSU offense...

which brings us to...

10) The return of "The Hat' - Coach Miles knows his seat is red hot, and he has made changes to repair the coaching issues that manifested themselves so badly in 2008 and 2009. The proof will be in the pudding, but Les once again has a capable coaching staff that he can empower, as he once again moves to what he does best - play the role of an empowering "CEO style" coach, with moxie and confidence, who knows how to motivate his team to do special things.

These factors make the optimistic Tiger fan excited for the opportunity for Miles to show he and his Tigers are once again among the national title-contending teams in college football.

However, pollsters and less optimistic folks will quickly point to factors associated with the 2008 and 2009 teams, and once again use a Lee Corso'ism, and say "Not so fast, my friend".

In the end, if you are among those who think that LSU has not addressed the issues that resulted in the 2008 and 2009 disappointments....and if you have not looked under the hood to gain an understanding of what went wrong, and why these things are getting fixed, you are possibly in for a big surprise.

The Hat does seems to have the 2010 Tiger's in a resurgent posture, as they contend for the championships LSU fans have come to expect.  

And oh, by the way - this time he will do it with HIS PLAYERS—"The Hat's Players."