NCAA Football Conference Realignment: "New School" (Mid-majors) Revenge

About two years ago, I wrote an article titled "Conference Realignment: Return of the 'Old School'" in which I hypothesized about how the next wave of conference realignments (in the 2010s, natch!) might take place so that they made some sense. My suggestions included a cap for conference size at 10 members. This would ensure that every conference played a full schedule (nine conference games and three non-conference games).

Events have made my suggested realignment both prophetic (as regards to the move of Colorado out of the Big 12) and woefully off the mark (Colorado didn't join the Mountain West Conference). The conference landscape continues to shift, as the MWC and the WAC are going through the sort of craziness that befell the Big 12 and the Pac-10 earlier this summer.

Therefore, I'm rethinking the realignment I proposed two years ago, particularly in view of the role of the "new schools" such as Boise State, TCU, Utah, and other mid-majors who will be doing quite a bit of moving and shaking in the next decade, as the heretofore vaunted BCS system implodes like a bad souffle.

While I won't offer any sure-fire predictions (I'm classifying this as "opinion," though it could also be considered "fantasy"), I'd like to think that at least in some cases cooler and more rational (less greedy?) heads will prevail. And then I tell myself, "Good luck with that."

While there may be new schools joining (or old schools leaving) FBS, my realignment proposal is based on the existing 120 members being allocated to 10 conferences of 12 teams each. It is assumed that conferences will hold championship games (the trade-off is potential money to be made from the game vs. potential money to be lost if there is an upset and the winner goes to a lesser bowl game (assuming that there is no playoff automatically including the conference champion).

Without further delay, here are the realigned conferences (new members in italics):

ACC

Clemson, Duke, Florida St., Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami-FL, N. Carolina, N. Carolina St., South Florida, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest.

BIG EAST

Army, Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Navy, Notre Dame, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, West Virginia.

BIG 10 (+2)

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio St., Penn St., Purdue, Wisconsin.

BIG 12 (-2, +2)

Baylor, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., SMU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU.

C-USA

Central Florida, E. Carolina, Houston, Marshall, Memphis, New Mexico, New Mexico St., Rice, Southern Miss., Tulane, Utah St., UTEP

MAC

Akron, Ball St., Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Mich., Eastern Mich., Kent St., Miami-OH, Northern Ill., Ohio, Toledo, Western Mich.

MWAC (Mountain West/WAC)

Air Force, Boise St., BYU, Colorado St., Fresno St., Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, San Diego St., San Jose St., UNLV, Wyoming.

PAC-12

Arizona, Arizona St., California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon St., Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington St.

SEC

Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana St., Mississippi, Mississippi St., S. Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

SUN BELT

Arkansas St., Florida Atl., Florida Int'l., Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tenn., N. Texas, Troy, Tulsa, UAB, Western Kentucky. 

With this sort of realignment, in which every team is placed in a conference, a playoff system would almost certainly have to include all 10 conference champions (whether determined by in-season play or by a conference championship game).

To allow for a more logical format, there would be room for two "at-large" or "wild-card" teams, to bring the total number to 12. The top four teams would be seeded and receive byes. Those four teams would also be guaranteed a berth in one of the four "ex-BCS" bowls (Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, and Rose). The remaining eight teams would play at the site of those four bowls, with the winner facing the seeded team.

Each "ex-BCS" bowl site is thus guaranteed two high-profile playoff games. Ideally the four first-round games would take place shortly before Christmas, with the four quarterfinals taking place on New Year's Day (with no other bowl games allowed on that day).

The quarterfinal winners would then meet at a "Football Final Four" at a "non-BCS" (i.e. not one of the four quarterfinal) stadium-probably covered-to determine the national champion. The semifinals would take place on or around Jan. 8, and the final on or around Jan. 15. Note that the current BCS championship game already falls around Jan. 8 each year, and it only has to schedule a two-team tournament!

A hypothetical playoff based on last year's final regular-season BCS ranking (http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/year/2009/week/15) would look something like this. Note that I have to work with the existing conferences:

Receive bye into quarterfinals

(1) Alabama, SEC champion: bye, seeded into Sugar Bowl
(2) Texas, Big 12 champion: bye, seeded into Fiesta Bowl
(3) TCU, MWC champion: bye, seeded into Rose Bowl
(4) Cincinnati, Big East champion: bye, seeded into Orange Bowl

Play first-round game to reach quarterfinals

First round, Fiesta Bowl: (6) Boise St. (WAC) vs. E. Carolina (C-USA)*
First round, Rose Bowl: (7) Oregon (Pac-10) vs. Central Mich. (MAC)*
First round, Sugar Bowl: (8) Ohio St. (Big 10+1) vs. Troy (Sun Belt)*
First round, Orange Bowl: (9) Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. Navy (Indep.)*

*Note that the eight first-round berths are taken up by seven of the 11 conference champions and the best independent with a qualifying record (because there were still independents). Under a 10-conference realignment, with no independents, two of these places would have been open for (10) Iowa and either (5) Florida (unless losing the conference championship makes a team ineligible for a playoff berth) or (12) LSU.