Is Michael Brantley a Late Season Fantasy Baseball Sleeper?

Michael Brantley is often overlooked as a potential source for stolen bases. 

In fact, in 2010 he’s done little to make people take notice.  A year removed from stealing 46 bases at Triple-A (and another four in the major leagues), he stole just 13 bases at Triple-A this time around.

It’s not that he was struggling overall; he hit .319 and continued to show a strong eye at the plate, walking 34 times vs. just 28 strikeouts.  Those are very good numbers, as are his 54 runs in just 273 AB, but as an outfielder with little-to-no power, the stolen bases have to be there in order to justify value.

He’s been up and down between the majors and minors this season, stealing four bases in 143 major league at-bats.  Half of that has come in the last week, however, when he stole bases on back-to-back days late last week.

In fact, since returning to the majors after the trade of Austin Kearns opened regular playing time, he has hits in seven of ten games.  He’s hitting .317 with 2 HR, 6 RBI, 10 R and 2 SB over that time.

Those are great numbers, but the question still remains, will he steal enough bases to justify using him in five-outfielder formats?

To help shed some light, let’s get a better idea of his history:

• 2006 (360 AB at Single-A) - 24 SB
• 2007 (405 AB between Single & Double-A) - 36 SB
• 2008 (420 AB at Double-A) - 28 SB

Obviously, if he played regularly in the major leagues, that would mean closer to 600 AB.  Over those three seasons he posted a stolen base once every 13.5 AB.  If he were able to maintain that pace, in 600 AB he’d steal over 40 bases.

Just looking at numbers and not taking them in context is a huge mistake. 

If you just looked at Brantley’s stolen base totals this season, you’d easily write off his 2009 success as an aberration.  While it was better then his 2010 campaign (he had 457 AB), he clearly has always been a solid stolen base threat.

It also helps that he has always had a good eye at the plate.  Entering 2010, he had walked 258 times, while striking out just 190 times in his career.

With his speed and eye at the plate, you would expect him to hit for a good average.

While he entered Wednesday hitting .203 in the major leagues, it came courtesy of a .210 BABIP.  The strikeout number (11.9%) is what you’d expect, so the average should certainly come around.

Granted, he’s not going to hit for power, and thus won’t drive in many runs.  That is a huge knock against him and limits his value to deeper formats.  If you play in a league that only requires three outfielders, you’re not likely to use him unless you are desperate for stolen bases.

In five-outfielder formats, it’s a different story.  You have a player that, hitting atop the Indians' order, could hit .300 or better.  He easily could steal 30+ bases in a full season and should score runs. 

There’s value there and he is certainly worth owning.

In fact, he’s likely to be in the outfield full-time in 2011, meaning depending on your keeper rules, he could be worth stashing away. 

He’s not a high-end option, but a solid player who may be getting overlooked.

What are your thoughts on Brantley?  Could he have value in 2010?  How about 2011?

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