A Preview and Prediction of Michigan's 2010 Non-Conference Schedule

2009 turned out to be a great season for the Wolverines - if we're talking non-conference play.  Michigan cruised to a 4-0 record in out of conference games.

Western Michigan - which many thought to be a MAC title contender - was picked by many pundits as a potential upset (if you could even call a MAC team beating Michigan an upset anymore) and there was definitely some unease about this game and stud QB Tim Hiller.  Michigan soundly put away WMU - the defense was fundamentally better and the strength and conditioning regimen of Mike Barwis appeared to be working some magic.

The non-conference slate was topped off by a stellar connection between Forcier and receiver Greg Matthews to win over Notre Dame 38-34 at Michigan Stadium on September 12th.

Michigan released a stable of running backs on Eastern Michigan - promptly erasing all hope of an Eagles' upset and flexing the rushing muscle on September 19th.

Many offensive records were broken on October 17th versus the Delaware State Minutemen - including the 727 yards of total offense (442 yards in the first half).  The 57 point margin of victory tied Michigan second-largest margin of victory since 1950 and was the 8th largest margin of victory overall.  49 points in the first half was the team's 2nd highest ever and the 28 points in the first quarter tied a school record.  The offense never once punted - the first time ever since 1978.

... but, WMU went on to disappoint, finishing the season 5-7 (4-4), Notre Dame limped to a 6-6 record complete with its 2nd loss to Navy in three years and four straight losses to close the season; EMU went on to go 0-12, and Delaware State had absolutely no business playing Michigan (besides the juicy paycheck).

It would appear then that Michigan actually may not have done so well - they just had more inferior opponents.

Can the same thing be said of the 2010 non conference schedule?

September 4th - Connecticut Huskies & Michigan Stadium Rededication

The UConn Huskies are a team on the rise - still in its infancy of Division I football, the Huskies are primed for a big year.  Most of the Huskies return from a team that went 8-5 with 4 straight wins to end the season - including a road win over Notre Dame and a bowl win, 20-7, against South Carolina in the 2010 PapaJohns.com Pizza Bowl.  It's also important to point out that all 5 losses were by a combined total of 15 points - UConn was in the game with every team, but found itself playing the position of "heartbroken" instead of "heartbreaker" in many a 4th quarter.

The Huskies were finally able to break into the top half of the Big East in the preseason media polls, picked to finish 4th in the conference behind overwhelming favorite Pitt and 2nd place favorites WVU and Cincinnati (currently tied).  Some sports writers have UConn in their preseason FBS top 25 (usually between 20th and 25th).  This marks their highest preseason ranking ever, so it is understandable why there is a lot of hype around the Huskies this year.

They could not find a better place to make a huge statement than on national television at the re-dedication of Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on September 4th.

On offense UConn has two viable options at QB in Zach Frazer and Cody Endres.  Frazer should start and maintain the job as long as he plays to his potential.  Frazer was out for a few weeks last season with a knee injury but finished with a strong performance to gain the trust and confidence of Connecticut fans and coaches.  In UConn's 4 game winning streak to close out the season, Frazer became quite effective - throwing 6 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions.

UConn is a power running team and last year running backs Andre Dixon and Jordan Todman split the role.   With Dixon gone to the UFL (to the Hartford Colonials, if you were interested), Todman appears to be the candidate for starting honors and should be the primary ball carrier for the season.  He ran for 1,188 yards last season recording 14 touchdowns and should be up for All-Big East Honors.

UConn also returns 4 offensive linemen and 3 receivers on an offense that managed 31.2 PPG last season, good for 21st overall in FBS.  There's no reason the Huskies can't at least maintain - if not build on - that same production this year.

On defense we must take note of the linebackers.  The duo of Scott Lutrus and Lawrence Wilson are what makes UConn a contender for the Big East.  Wilson had 140 tackles last season, a contributing factor to his All-Big East Honors.  Lutrus was plagued with injury last year but appears to be healthy and ready to make an immediate impact.

On the line, Witten and his 11.5 sacks will need to be replaced, but there is enough talent to put solid pressure on the opposing QB consistently.  The concern, like with Michigan, is the youthful secondary.  UConn ended the season last year 6th in the Big East in scoring defense and total defense

My Prediction:
UConn is a top-25 team on some peoples' preseason polls, and that is a testament to how far Randy Edsall has taken this program.  "We want to win a Big East championship and get to a BCS bowl game." says Edsall.  While losing to Michigan would not hurt their chances at the Big East title, it wouldn't do anything to forward their growing reputation.

While UConn will be hungry, Michigan will be hungrier - fueled by the re-dedication of the stadium.  Michigan wins a good game by more more than 10 to start off 1-0.

Interesting tidbit:  The last time Rodriguez met Edsall was in 2007 when his Mountaineers mopped the floor with the Huskies, 66-21.

September 11th - Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Presumably a coaching transition will bring a period of transition in which the team undergoing the coaching change doesn't perform too well.  If you need to see an example, you need not look further than Notre Dame's 14-year-3-head-coach stumble through the abyss of college football.

And then there's coach Brian Kelly - who has won at every level.  In 19 years as a head coach, he has finished 17 of those years with a winning record, 1 at .500, and had only one losing season - his 1st year of coaching at Central Michigan.

Before panic ensues, you might temper that with Brian Kelly's statement about how Notre Dame "stinks" right now, specifically the offensive side of the ball.  He is likely a good fit for Notre Dame, but there are too many question marks for the Notre Dame faithful to extol him quite yet.

On offense Dayne Crist is pretty much the Irish's only option at QB.  His health is still a bit in question as he's coming off of an ACL injury, but he can run and throw - again, provided he is healthy.

Michael Floyd, the best wide receiver in the nation, returns - but the loss of the Clausen-Tate tandem will likely still be felt. 

And of course there is running back Armando Allen.  He's not the best RB in terms of stats - he accumulated 697 yards in 142 attempts to score 3 TDs, but he is shifty, and can give the Irish offense a first down when they need one.

On defense the Irish finished 89th of 120 FBS schools last season in total defense, but the Irish players are working to change ND's reputation of defensive mediocrity that they have gained over the past 7 seasons.  Despite the negative thoughts conjured up in all of Irish Nation's minds about Charlie Weis, he did manage the #1 recruiting class in the nation after going a dismal 3-9 his first season at the helm.  Those players will be juniors this year and expect them to make an impact on this side of the ball.

Highly touted player Ian Williams looks to lead a decent defensive line this year, taking on a much bigger responsibility because of Notre Dame's switch from a 4-3 scheme to a 3-4 scheme.  Ethan Johnson had 4 sacks last year but will need to get in on stopping the run more on the new 3 man line.

My Prediction
With the season being so young, and Kelly being new to Notre Dame, I expect Michigan to take this one. It will be close, but Michigan's experience on offense will ultimately prevail.

Admittedly, the rivalry got a lot more interesting with Kelly as coach - his version of the spread means that Michigan and Notre Dame will likely be battling for more of the same recruits in the coming years, and I think it added just the right amount of flair to the rivalry - something that both greats of the past need.

Michigan improves to 2-0.

September 18th - Massachusettes Minutemen

See Michigan vs. Delaware State 2009.

Actually, perhaps not quite.

The UMass Minutemen are a respectable opponent in FCS play, but they are nowhere near FBS caliber.  Perhaps you'd like to direct me to the Appalachian State game.. but while FCS teams occasionally defeat FBS teams, I wouldn't peg the Minutemen to make much of a stand against Michigan.  There is a clear disparity of talent between the teams, but then again, we play the games and don't go by what is on paper - any given Saturday.

On offense it appears that senior QB Kyle Havens won the spot over juco transfer Ian Shultis.  In his first 10 starts as a Minuteman, Havens threw for 1,904 yards and nine touchdowns, completing 55% of his passes.  After a period of obscurity, he returned to form against Northeastern at the beginning of November.  He helped his offense upset FCS #4 New Hampshire the following week.

Their 2 tailbacks - Hernandez and Griffin appear to be top talent in the CAA (Colonial Athletic Association).  Griffin was the CAA's only rusher to top 1000 yards (1,009) and Hernandez ran for 609 yards averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

On defense the unit hopes to gel and improve on last year's 5-6 record.

My Prediction:
Expect Michigan to strike early and often with a high octane offense.  Our gaps in defense may allow the Minutemen to get on the board, but I wouldn't be holding my breath for an upset.  Admittedly, I've been wrong before.

Michigan wins to move to 3-0.

September 25th - Bowling Green State University Falcons

The BGSU Falcons pay a visit to Ann Arbor on September 25th as the Wolverines return to FBS play.  Last year the Falcons went 7-5 earning a berth to the Humanitarian bowl where BGSU lost to the Idaho Vandals by one point in a game whose combined score was 95.

Last year the Falcons ranked 6th nationally in passing yards per game with an impressive 316.2 YPG.  For comparison, Michigan didn't even make the top 50.

The good news ends there though as BGSU returns only four starters on each side of the ball and look towards rebuilding in 2010 and 2011.

On offense the QB position looks just about as much in the air as it is at Michigan.  The candidates:  three freshman and one sophomore.

Running back Willie Geter returns to the team after carrying the ball over 700 yards for 9 TDs last season.  Freddie Barnes graduated this past year leaving the receivers looking for a new receiver.

On defense all linebackers need to be replaced (yikes!) but experience provided by upperclassman defensive backs will stabilize the secondary.

My Prediction:
Michigan should win handily as it will be hard for 16 new starters to acclimate to their positions within the first season, let alone the first few games.

Michigan ends their non conference schedule (and first four games of the season) at 4-0.

Some Closing Remarks

I predicted Michigan to start the season 4-0 before entering conference play.  I understand that anywhere from 2-2 to 4-0 is a likely possibility and I also fully expect the UConn and Notre Dame games to be hotly contested until the very end (see Michigan vs. Notre Dame 2009).

It is also important to recognize the past - last year's season started 4-0 and ended with losing 6 of 7 and Michigan never beat an FBS opponent after Indiana.

There are plenty of questions to answer this year for Rich Rod and his Wolverines:  the QB battle, how Justin Turner's departure affects an already thin secondary, the kicking situation*, how to fill Brandon Graham's role on the D-line, how the NCAA penalties will affect the program, etc.

And I enter the season with only one certainty:  The season opener kicks off at 3:30 pm in Ann Arbor vs. the Connecticut Huskies, and I can't wait to be there.

Cheers and Go Blue!

*This is the only season I can recall where our best punter was our QB (Forcier after Zoltan's departure) and an incoming freshman (Will Hagerup) pretty much had a guaranteed start.