2010 College Football Predictions: Turnovers Key to Michigan Turnaround

To say that Michigan had turnover problems last season would be an understatement.  When it comes to holding onto the ball, 2009 was nothing short of a disaster for Rich Rod and his Wolverines.

In a disappointing 2009 campaign, Michigan gained a meager five fumbles and recorded only 11 interceptions.  Compare that to the 13 fumbles the Wolverines lost (!) and 15 interceptions shared between true freshmen quarterbacks Denard Robinson and Tate Forcier.  This was good enough for a -1.00 turnover margin and a ranking of 115th of 120 FBS schools.

Presented with the above information, I would like to make this argument:  It was the turnovers—and not a statistically mediocre defense—that caused Michigan to limp to a lackluster 5-7 year.

If you're not convinced, let's take a look at some of the games that easily could have gone in Michigan's favor if it wasn't for turnovers.

@Michigan State on October 3rd, 2009

After Tate Forcier had put together two extremely impressive drives to force overtime at Spartan Stadium, he lobbed a ball in the air to, well, someone on the field.  With no discernible target, the ball flew towards the end zone, was tipped, and intercepted. 

This allowed the setup for Caper's 23 yard TD run that sealed the game in MSU's favor.  Without that interception, Michigan could have scored a TD or FG and at least lived to another round of overtime.

@Iowa on October 10, 2009

After Tate Forcier had played nearly all of what was his worst game statistically of 2009, Denard Robinson put a bit of fire beneath Michigan after scoring with a few minutes left to pull Michigan to within two points of Iowa. 

The defense then held Iowa to a three play drive and got the ball back with a minute on the clock.  Michigan had made it nearly 30 yards down the field en route to a game-winning field goal or touchdown when Denard Robinson's ill-advised pass landed in the arms of an Iowa defender, finalizing the 30-28 score in Iowa's favor.  Michigan turned the ball over a total of five times in this game.  Had Michigan been able to setup at least a FG, the Wolverines could have stunned the Hawkeyes in primetime at Kinnick.

@Illinois on October 31, 2009

Right after halftime, Forcier threw a beautiful pass that ended in what looked like a Wolverine touchdown.  In fact, Michigan was credited with a TD and the game at 20-7 in Michigan's favor when, upon review, the referee overturned the ruling on the field and Michigan got the ball on the Illinois one yard line. 

Four plays later, the Illini defense had managed to stop Michigan from getting into the end zone and the Wolverines turned the ball over on downs.  Energized, the Illini went on to thoroughly destroy Michigan 38-13.  Had Michigan managed to punch the ball into the end zone to go up 20-7, it may very well have ended in Michigan's favor.

vs. Ohio State on November 21, 2009

The picture attached to this article is of Forcier losing the ball on the Michigan one yard line.  The Ohio State offense promptly scored a touchdown on the next drive to go up 7-0.  That was turnover No. 1 in a game in which Forcier had a total of five.  In fact, Forcier turned the ball over three times in the red zone—when Michigan had a scoring opportunity. 

If Forcier had not turned the ball over at the beginning and Michigan had gotten at least a FG each time they were in the red zone, the game very well may have ended 19-15 in Michigan's favor.

So there you have it:  Michigan defense—specifically and most impressively against Ohio State—did enough to at least get by.  Sure, it wasn't stellar and not anything to write home about, but it was there.  If you could take the turnovers away—which I realize you can't, but for argument's sake, if we did, Michigan could have conceivably been 9-3 (5-3) last season—including impressive wins over Ohio State and Iowa.

At least I can take comfort in physics knowing that somewhere there is a universe parallel to ours—that is unreachable because it is vibrating at a different frequency than our own—where Michigan didn't commit these fatal errors ("shooting ourselves in the foot" so to speak) and Michigan DID go 9-3 (5-3).  Heck, there's probably a universe in which Michigan won the BCS title.  Ah, yes, some football and theoretical physics for your afternoon reading.

The point I want you to take home is this 

If Michigan can reach a positive turnover ratio, they can win eight or nine games in 2010.  The defense does need to improve—specifically the secondary, and with our top talent in the defensive backfield leaving for various reasons (or never getting the chance to be a Wolverine), it's no secret that the development and production of our defensive backs will take time. 

Pushing the turnover margin in our favor is a quick fix that will give results more along the lines of what Michigan and the maize and blue faithful want to see, or at the very least it will allow us to break the .500 mark.

As always, Go Blue!