Nebraska Football: A Better Way To Predict the 2010 Season

Season previews. We've all seen them, we've all done them. Most of the time, they're exercises in guesswork about what's going to happen in a particular game two to three months down the road. That's hard work, and a lot of guessing about the future. I've always thought it was, at best, an imprecise science.

I've started doing season previews a little differently. Instead of trying to guess the outcome of each game, I break the schedule down into four categories: Better Win, Should Win, Might Win, and Won't Win. By doing so, rather than trying to guess specific outcomes, you can look forward and have a pretty good idea of what to expect.

Then, once you've divided the schedule into one of those four categories, you can get a very good idea of what the final record would look like. Obviously, you expect a team to win every Better Win game and lose every Won't Win game. You expect a team to win a majority (but not all) of the Should Win games, and win a minority (but not all) of the Might Win games.

Of course, it's also a lot of fun to pick the individual games and see how you do, so we'll have some of that as well.

So, without further adieu, here's how I see Nebraska's 2010 season:

Western Kentucky: In only their second year as an FBS school, the Hilltoppers should provide NU with a warm-up for the rest of their season. BETTER WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 38, WKU 3)

Idaho: The Vandals not only went to a bowl last year, but won it in thrilling fashion. While the best of the non-conference home opponents, that's not saying a lot. BETTER WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 45, UI 10)

at Washington: Jake Locker might be an NFL first-rounder, but he can't throw the ball to himself. Or play defense. SHOULD WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 28, UW 13)

South Dakota State: An embarrassing remnant from the Steve Pederson era. BETTER WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 55, SDSU 6)

at Kansas State: Look-ahead game to the Red Out Around The World, road game, night game, Thursday night ESPN game, everything screams danger. And that's without thinking about Daniel Thomas running the ball. NU is better, but the stars could align poorly. SHOULD WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 24, KSU 20)

Texas: This grudge match has been brewing since early June. But Garrett Gilbert is still a first-year signal-caller that can't move much going against what might be the best secondary in the country. SHOULD WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 13, UT 9)

at Oklahoma State: The 40-year-old coach is trying to resurrect Mike Leach's Air Raid offense in orange and black. Unfortunately, he seems to have brought Leach's defense, as well. BETTER WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 38, OSU 21)

Missouri: It doesn't matter that NU beat the Tigers in Columbia last year. Blaine Gabbert is still going to be a marked man by NU fans and players, and Mizzou isn't as good this year as they were last. BETTER WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 28, MU 17)

at Iowa State: Speaking of memories, every NU player from the squad last year will remember the 'Clones celebrating in Memorial Stadium and will be looking for payback. BETTER WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 38, ISU 7)

Kansas: God bless Turner Gill. He'd better, because Mark Mangino left the cupboard pretty bare for the former Nebraska great. I think Gill can be successful at Kansas, but it won't be this year. BETTER WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 42, KU 10)

at Texas A&M: NU's toughest road test of the year, against the type of quarterback in Jerrod Johnson that can give Pelini's defense fits. The Aggies don't play a lot of defense, but NU's offense hasn't shown themselves to be able to win a shootout, particularly on the road. MIGHT WIN (Fearless forecast—A&M 41, NU 31)

Colorado: The swan song for the Big XII conference, and likely the swan song for Dan Hawkins after another tough season in Boulder. A beaten and likely non-bowl-eligible Buffalo team will be more concerned about getting ready for the Pac-10 and less concerned about keeping a manufactured rivalry with Nebraska alive. BETTER WIN (Fearless forecast—NU 31, CU 17)

That leaves us with eight Better Win games and zero Won't Win games, so we start with NU at 8-0. We have three Should Win games, and we know that NU will win a majority (but not all) of those games. We'll put them at 2-1 for those games, moving NU to 10-1. That leaves one Might Win game, and a minority of one is closer to zero than one, so we'll chalk that up as a loss.

That leaves the prediction for NU at 10-2 for the season, and thought through in such a way that makes the prediction a little more objective and a little more reality-tested and reliable.

Of course, I have NU at 11-1 in my Fearless Forecasts, not at 10-2. And you can bet that if they end up 11-1, I'm going to say that I called it. See how smart this system is?