UNC Football Probe: How NCAA Sanctions Could Affect Program's Future

Deep inside Kenan Stadium on the campus of the University of North Carolina, puffy bellows of smoke engulf the entrance to the locker room tunnel just prior to kick off.

North Carolina hasn’t taken the field yet as a video montage plays, the Carolina faithful rise to their feet to cheer, and a deafening bell rings.

Here comes the smoke and then, through it, come the Tar Heels.

It’s a lavish display, all in the name of creating a buzz in the crowd. That’s how most fall Saturdays in Chapel Hill go.

For the first time in a long time, North Carolina prepares for a fall that carries the expectations of being ranked among the nation’s preeminent teams.

Sports Illustrated ranked the Tar Heels No. 13 in their preseason poll. Many others have Carolina in the top-20.

With the preseason ranking and 19 returning starters, 10 on offense and nine on defense, head coach Butch Davis knows that the time has come to take the North Carolina football program to new heights.

This is what he came to Carolina to do, and in his fourth year, it’s that time. Simply put, Carolina fans don’t want another Meineke Car Care Bowl appearance. They want a big-name bowl, and it appears the Tar Heels have the talent to achieve that.

Carolina returns the best defense in the ACC. Some say it’s the best defense in the country. The Tar Heels have five starters on defense that ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. could see going in the first round of next year’s NFL draft.

If the offense sees marginal improvement, North Carolina should be competing for an ACC title and a BCS berth.

That’s how simple it was when Carolina broke spring camp, anyway.

Over the summer, North Carolina became the next school in a long line of NCAA investigations, all stemming from a trip to Miami that defensive tackle Marvin Austin and wide receiver Greg Little went on with players from other schools and allegedly didn’t finance themselves.

That’s what the NCAA thinks, although there has been no evidence yet to suggest that Austin and Little did anything “wrong” on that trip. But that was only Step One of the probe.

The probe has turned substantially messier for North Carolina after former Tar Heel Cam Thomas, a member of the ’09 team and now with the San Diego Chargers, said recently that he and Austin took a trip to California last summer to hang out and train with Kentwan Balmer. The San Francisco 49ers selected Balmer out of Carolina in the first round in 2008.

Thomas said Balmer paid for the trip, a reported violation of NCAA rules. Couple that dirty little secret with the NCAA’s investigation of defensive line coach John Blake and his relationship with agent Gary Wichard, the man who represents Balmer, and UNC is looking a lot like USC.

What will come out of the investigations of Austin’s trip to California and Blake’s relationship, or lack thereof, with agents is anybody’s guess.

What is becoming clearer and clearer, however, is that Carolina will pay some price for all of this. The university seems willing to sit all players involved in the NCAA’s investigation until they come to a conclusion.

Many college football analysts have already said that they believe we have seen the last of Austin as a North Carolina football player. Unfortunately for Austin, he could become the scapegoat of this entire ordeal in an attempt to satisfy the NCAA’s pick-and-choose battles.

The NCAA isn’t so much concerned with solving issues as much as it is concerned with maintaining its watchdog status. The powers-that-be want to wield a big hammer, and they want you to know it. Football programs go on recruiting trips, and the NCAA goes on power trips.

But there’s not a whole lot schools can do about it, which is why many of them put sanctions on themselves before the NCAA does. They want to please the governing body of college athletics.

The NCAA used Southern California as a puppet to make a statement. A two-year bowl ban and loss of scholarships came for transgressions that occur across the country.

But the NCAA wants a sacrificial lamb. They want to stand high atop the mountain of college sports and have their voice be heard.

So unless you want investigators flocking to your campus all summer, like what’s been happening in Chapel Hill, you must comply.

What’s sad about all of this is that Carolina would probably be relieved if the only penalty it incurs is that Austin is deemed ineligible and thus misses his senior season.

As critical as Austin is to Carolina’s success, the Tar Heels would still have Robert Quinn, Quan Sturdivant, Bruce Carter, and Deunta Williams on defense, not to mention seniors Kendric Burney and Da’Norris Searcy. That D is still stacked.

But if the NCAA wants to continue to paint with a broad brush and move on to the next stop of its big-name program witch hunt, it could put UNC on bowl probation for 2010, at least. 

And that is the worst fear of North Carolina fans.

It’s a fear because this is the year for Carolina to make some noise, and everybody knows it. Davis’ first recruiting class came back for their senior seasons with hopes of bringing a national title to Carolina, and this is it.

Next year will be another rebuilding year at North Carolina, unless multiple guys emerge on both sides of the ball and excel immediately.

Davis hasn’t gone 20-18 in three seasons in Chapel Hill so that he could spend another couple seasons building the program back up to respectability after sanctions.

His hard work has paid off thus far, and this is the year that he could take North Carolina football to a powerhouse level.

Davis has brought Carolina to the doorstep of the ACC’s elite, and now he wants in.

If Carolina enjoys a successful year and goes to a BCS bowl, it could set the stage for coming years, as more recruits would begin to view North Carolina as a great place to play college football.

The only way that Davis will turn the Tar Heels into perennial Orange Bowl contenders is if he continually hauls in recruits that would normally go to Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and others.

This year, the 2010 season, could impact all of that. And if the NCAA says nope, no postseason football for Carolina this year, then the climb to the top could be over. It’s unlikely Davis would be around to assemble another team capable of winning it all.

Replacing the talent North Carolina is set to lose after this year takes time, and in this age of big-time revenues in college football and win-now expectations, no coach gets a decade to stick around without getting to, and winning, bowl games.

And sorry, we ain’t talking about the Meineke, folks.

The NCAA will, in the end, do what it wants, but the implications of its decision reach far beyond Austin and any other players involved. Heavy sanctions could very well likely mean the ACC cellar for coming seasons and the end of Davis’ tenure in Chapel Hill.

Until then, we wait and see. We anticipate the potential success of the upcoming season until the NCAA tells us not to.

There will always be smoke oozing out of the Carolina tunnel inside Kenan Stadium.

But the difference is we are now forced to wonder, just how hot is the fire?

Follow Teddy Mitrosilis on Twitter. You can reach him at [e-mail].