College Football: A Look at Possible Pac-12 Divisions

The addition of Utah and the growing pains that brought, has lead to some contentious moments for the historically near-bucolic (as conferences go) Pac-10. 

There were reports that Colorado accepted membership with the idea they would  be in the same division as UCLA and USC, guaranteeing the Buffaloes a road showcase game in Los Angeles each year.  Such a move would likely limit the Northwestern teams' access to Los Angeles and Southern California recruiting.  Not surprisingly, the Northern schools raised a fuss and the commissioner came out saying there was no commitment to Colorado along those lines.

Since then, there has been a lot of discussion of an optimal format for divisions.

Optimal Divisions:

Eight of the 12 teams divide up pretty easily into relatively sensible divisions in terms of travel costs.  It is easy to imagine a  Northwestern four and a Southwestern four.  The problem is, of course, that none of those schools want to give up the trips to California that fuel their out of state recruiting.

Per Dave Campbell's Texas Football 2010 edition, 70.6% of Pac-10 recruiting comes from the members states in the Pac-10 footprint.  California produced the third highest number of FBS recruits in the nation last year with 329 total recruits, trailing only Texas (387) and Florida (356).   More relevant to how this affects the Pac-10 is the fact that the Pac-10 states that produced the second largest number of FBS level recruits were Arizona and Washington who finished tied for 22nd in the country with a mere 29 FBS recruits.  Staying relevant in both northern and southern California is a huge issue to Pac-10 schools in terms of keeping the competitiveness that drives their finances.

I would suggest the following is the optimum set up in terms of financial return for the conference.  It is not so much "fair" overall as it appears potentially financially sensible for the Pac-12.

Each of the for schools in each division located outside of California would be guaranteed at least one game in California each year and one home game against a California school each year in their five division games.

Now, that still leaves four out of division games to schedule.  Who gets the additional California games?

USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford

Well to start, logic dictates the California schools get taken care of first.

Cal would get to play USC and rival Stanford for two of the OOD games. UCLA would, as well.  That means that two weekends of the of the four OOD game weekends would have to match out of California teams from the Northwest against out of California teams from the Southwest.

The Los Angeles schools should get a game in the Bay area each year.   The Bay area schools should likewise, get a game in LA each year.

Who Gets the Last California Weekend Dates?

I think you have to look at this as a financial equation that has to be solved in the best interest of the Pac-12 Conference in totality. 

So, what gets the Pac-12 the maximum media payout?

I think the answer lies in building the best media bang the conference can generate.  To me that means helping resurrect two fallen giants: The University of Washington Huskies and The University of Colorado Buffaloes football programs.

Washington is one of the great Western historic national powers, but it has fallen apart lately.  Don James won national titles in 1984 and 1991 (and technically was named a co-national champion in 1990), but James retired and the emergence of Boise State, Oregon, and Oregon State have eroded the depth of talent Washington used to enjoy.  Strong California recruiting opportunities could refill that talent base, especially with the high profile Steve Sarkisian, a former Oakland Raiders and USC assistant with a talent for developing QBs running the show.  That gives Washington credibility with Bay area and Los Angeles area recruits.

Colorado reached that national title contender status in the early 1990's, winning a national title in 1990.  They are 16th on the all-time win list, have a .608 winning percentage, and had a Heisman Trophy winner in Rashaan Salaam in 1994.

Colorado has since fallen on hard times since Bill McCarthy left.  They play in the shadow of the very popular NFL Broncos, which caps the media coverage, public ticket, and merchandising dollars that CU can generate in the Denver area.  Add to that the fact they have a migratory alumni base, a large chunk of which have moved west after graduation—many live in California.  In the Big 12, Colorado was unable to leverage that alumni-base to fuel donations, merchandise, ticket sales, and help recruiting.  In the Pac-12, the potential is there for vast improvements in those areas.

Embattled Colorado head football Coach Dan Hawkins could very much profit from the Buffaloes move to the Pac-10.  Hawkins was the original architech of the Boise State football dynasty.  He took a decent program and turned it into a national football power totalling an .828 winning percentage in his five years in Boise. 

Coaching in the Big 12 has been tough on Hawkins, but the New Pac-12 footprint covers all of the areas Hawkins recruited at Boise State.  Hawkins and Colorado have good potential in the Pac-12...if he wins enough games to return next year.

Both schools are national brands that have devolved into fallen giants today.

Both schools are reliant on California recruiting and are as far from California as you can get in the Pac-12.

Schools like Oregon, Oregon State, and even Utah are not as high profile universities.  They are not national names in football terms. And, more to the point they are closer to California and have shown they can get it done on the field today without any concessions.

Schools like Washington State, Arizona, and Arizona State have shown, even with those games, they can't land enough of those kids to win at an elite level consistently.  (And, I am making a generalization here).  All Pac-10 schools have had a good recruiting year here and there, as better suited coaching staffs for those universities come in.)

Oregon or Utah can often out-recruit a BYU, Texas, Boise State, and a Fresno State for a California kid.  Washington and Colorado need a little help today.

I would argue that a resurgent Washington, Colorado and (hopefully UCLA) added to the top 25 caliber Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Oregon state, Utah programs, and (of course) USC would maximize the Pac-10's allure in television terms.  That being the case, I would argue the deck should be slightly stacked for the two fallen "national brand" conference outliers.

The last two weekends would amount to a home date and an away date for Stanford, Cal, USC, and UCLA against teams from outside of California and OOD.

I would argue that Colorado and Washington should be given favored status and be guaranteed a second game in California each year.  If those teams are strong, a national television contract will pay more because those are national brands.

How This Might Work:

If Colorado plays at UCLA and hosts Cal for their two in division games, they would play at Stanford for Stanford's last home OOD game.

Likewise, if Washington plays at USC and hosts Stanford in their two division games they would play at Cal for Cal's last home game.

(The following year, Colorado would play at Cal and host UCLA for their two in division games and play at USC for USC's last OOD home game.  Washington would play at Stanford and host USC for their two in division games and play at UCLA for UCLA's last OOD home game.)

The remaining four home games and four road games  for the last two weekends would be split among the other six OOD, out of state Schools. 

California Games:

Certainly, preference could be given to long term Pac-10 members on the last California games.  It would for example be sensible to have Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, and Arizona State take turns with those last two California dates. The Arizona schools haven't really "earned' those dates, but they aren't awful, and you have to make it somewhat tolerable for them to accept this kind of setup. 

If earning a better schedule is possible, the Oregon schools have earned it on the field.  Certainly, you don't want to erode those schools' ability to compete. 

Every effort should be made to get the target school a second game at California each year a game in the other metro area is played.  For example, if Arizona has it and they play at Cal that year, they should also get USC's last home date.

Road Games:

Utah, as a newbie who has shown in the MWC that they can recruit California well enough to be a top 25 team, and doesn't NEED California Pac-10 trips like Washington or Colorado. 

Likewise, Washington State is mostly non-competitive in football now and the added recruiting opportunity would not help them compete much.  Additionally they are not a national brand. 

Perhaps, Utah and Washington State could be guaranteed to host 2 California schools each year.

This actually works out OK as a short term solution as schools like USC and UCLA are good road draws. From an entertainment perspective, Utah fans certainly would rather see another Pac-10 team in their home and the Utes might appreciate home field advantage when it might occur.  Washington State appears to be among the most financially challenged Pac-10 school, so another good home draw might be a good deal for them.

Alternate the California Schools between Divisions:

Finally, I would argue that as the 12 team Pac-10 seem to be a transitory entity, only likely to be around until the Big 12 collapses, it makes sense to alternate the California schools between divisions every two years to attempt to retain cohesiveness among the schools that would comprise what would ultimately be the Pacific division of the end goal conference.

I went ahead and tried laying out what a schedule would look like trying to satisfy these rules with these divisions.  It took a bit of time and I didn't hit every one of the above rules as fully as one ideally would, but I am just a guy with an excel spreadsheet, not a conference with software that automates scheduling.  Still, it looks pretty solid.

Who knows what the Pac-12 will ultimately chose as the methodology for splitting the conference into divisions, but I think this is one of the zipper scenarios that fans would consider less contrived, and it offers what I think is the best financial return.