College Football Vegas Odds: 20 Teams the Odds Makers Have Wrong
As we approach the college football season, the predictions and analysis seem to run wild, and, as you can probably bet, we'll be joining in on that fun here.
A curious aspect of reporting, scouting, analysis, and especially fanhood, is that people tend to fall in love with certain teams each year and disregard others almost blindly.
Good teams, teams that can potentially take over the top of their conference standings, are left out of the national discussion and written off.
Other good teams, teams that have historically been great, are given credit beyond what they deserve and are expected to perform as well as they have in past seasons despite obvious flaws and question marks.
The odds makers fall victim to this trend as well and we're here to challenge some thoughts for the 2010 season.
Here are 10 teams whose over/unders are too high and 10 teams whose over/unders are too low.
Too High: Brigham Young
1 of 20
Over/Under: Eight wins
So, how good is Jake Heaps?
Well, if BYU is going to return to the top 25 in 2010, the headliner of its 2010 recruiting class better be pretty good. He's likely to be the Cougars' starting quarterback as a true freshman and has some big shoes to fill.
Max Hall was more than just the team's starting quarterback in 2009; he was the leader of the offense.
Add in some serious questions about a defensive line that couldn't apply much pressure a year ago and a top 12 finish next season seems like a long shot.
The schedule isn't too rough for the Cougars but drop a game against Air Force, Nevada, Utah State, San Diego State, Utah State, UNLV, Colorado State, or New Mexico and reaching eight wins will be very difficult.
Too High: Clemson
2 of 20
Over/Under: Seven wins
Clemson's offense last season was one of the best in the country thanks to the trio of Kyle Parker, C.J. Spiller, and Jacoby Ford.
Luckily for the Tigers, Parker will be returning next season after bypassing the chance to play professional baseball, but Spiller and Ford are off to the NFL. Without them, that highlight-reel, electric offense just won't be the same.
Losing your starting corner backs doesn't help brighten the picture much either.
It's a close call for Clemson on the over/under list, especially when you consider how close this team came to winning the ACC last season.
But beyond early home games against North Texas and Presbyterian the schedule gets rough for the Tigers.
Too High: Florida
3 of 20
Over/Under: 10 wins
There's a lot to like about new Gators quarterback John Brantley, but he's no Tim Tebow. Some have compared him to Washington quarterback Jake Locker, but it will take him awhile to even reach that level.
Add in the fact that Florida lost several key contributors on offense such as center Maurkice Pouncey, receivers Riley Cooper and David Nelson, as well as tight end Aaron Hernandez, and the weapons available to Brantley appear to be severely depleted as well.
Florida will be a good team in 2010, but the SEC is a gauntlet and there are some tough games on the schedule including visits to Alabama and FSU, as well as tough matchups against LSU and Georgia.
You don't want to overlook possible upsets at the hands of Kentucky, Mississippi State, and South Carolina either.
Drop two of these seven games, and the chances of reaching 10 wins plummet.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Too High: Georgia Tech
4 of 20
Over/Under: Seven-and-a-half wins
Georgia Tech will have a tough time winning its second consecutive ACC title this season after losing some of its best weapons on both offense and defense.
With tailback Jonathan Dwyer and receiver Demaryius Thomas off to the NFL, it will be really interesting to see how successful the Yellow Jackets' triple option offense will be next season.
On defense, Derrick Morgan will be replaced by sophomore Jason Peters, which could be a difficult transition.
It's that half a game that's the real sticker for the Yellow Jackets. There are seven very winnable games on the schedule, but somewhere down the line Georgia Tech needs to beat North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, or Georgia.
If that doesn't happen it needs to win on the road against Clemson and you know the Tigers will be gunning for the Yellow Jackets like no one else.
Too High: Michigan
5 of 20
Over/Under: Seven wins
Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez will be on the hot seat big-time in 2010. He needs to get things going for this program or he will very quickly find himself out of a job, possibly even before the end of the season.
The Wolverines should be better than they were a year ago, but that isn't saying too much considering this team won only five games in 2009.
There are still serious questions about the defense, particularly a very sketchy secondary that will struggle to defend the pass all season long.
Besides games against Massachusetts, Bowling Green, Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue the rest of the schedule is rough.
It wouldn't be surprising to see Rodriguez ousted a couple weeks into the season if Michigan starts 0-2 after losses to UConn and Notre Dame.
Too High: Notre Dame
6 of 20
Over/Under: Eight wins
Notre Dame should be excited about the possibilities next season under new head coach Brian Kelly; who came over from Cincinnati in the offseason and will be installing the spread offense at South Bend with hopes of getting the ball rolling.
The Irish have a lot of question marks though, and it won't be easy to replace the quarterback/wide receiver combination of Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate.
Expectations are high for Dayne Crist and Michael Floyd to fill the void, but you can't expect the results to be instant with this team.
Notre Dame went 6-6 last year and has only three "cupcake" matchups in 2010. After Western Michigan, Tulsa, Army, and maybe Purdue if you're not too high on Robert Marve, the schedule is no joke for the Irish.
Too High: Oklahoma
7 of 20
Over/Under: 10 wins
Oklahoma's 2009 season was derailed by Sam Bradford's shoulder injury that just wouldn't go away. Luckily for the Sooners, Landry Jones got a lot more work in his freshman year than expected and should be in line for a successful season in 2010.
The Sooners won't stay on the backburner of the Big 12 again.
But they definitely can't be considered the favorites to win the conference, not with Texas and Nebraska looking as good as they do.
Oklahoma has a strong cast of players on the roster, but the Big 12 is looking more like the SEC in 2010 and the competition will be fierce.
The Sooners don't play Nebraska at least, but with FSU, Texas, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State all on the schedule, they may very well fall short of 10 wins.
Too High: Penn State
8 of 20
Over/Under: Eight-and-a-half wins
Joe Paterno is finally starting to look his age and this isn't a good year for that.
The Nittany Lions have six starters to replace on defense, including star linebackers Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee, and tackle Jared Odrick. Those three players, especially Odrick, leave huge shoes to fill.
On offense, two freshman quarterbacks will battle it out for the starting job in a year where the schedule is brutal.
If Penn State is able to match its win total from a year ago it would be very impressive.
Considering the schedule features road games against Alabama, Ohio State, and Iowa you can give the Nittany Lions three losses right there.
Drop any other game on the schedule and a nine-win season goes out the window. Like Georgia Tech, it's that half-game that does Penn State in.
Too High: South Carolina
9 of 20
Over/Under: Seven wins
Most South Carolina fans will point toward the development of quarterback Stephen Garcia as the main reasoning behind the expectations for a strong season in 2010.
Yes, the Gamecocks won seven games last year, but overall the roster isn't stronger this time around and that same total will be a more difficult accomplishment.
Take a look at the schedule and you'll find only three games that the Gamecocks have absolutely no excuse to lose; those would be against Southern Mississippi, Vanderbilt, and Troy.
The rest of the year features games against Georgia, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and Florida, as well as losable games against Kentucky, Tennessee, and Clemson.
Too High: TCU
10 of 20
Over/Under: 10-and-a-half wins
TCU doesn't have too pressing of a schedule on its hands in 2010, which should help it compete for another BCS bowl game, but it's had some big losses on defense, headlined by Jerry Hughes.
Finding a replacement for tailback Joseph Turner and linebacker Daryl Washington will be much easier tasks than discovering who, if anyone, on the roster will be the next defensive stopper of Hughes' mold.
Unlike most of the other teams on this list, the Horned Frogs can easily achieve another 10-win season based on their cupcake schedule, but there are a few interesting matchups as well.
With Oregon State, BYU, Utah, and even Air Force presenting challenges, TCU can't afford to lose more than two of those games and still hope to beat the over/under.
Too Low: Arkansas
11 of 20
Over/Under: Eight-and-a-half wins
A lot of Razorback fans have high expectations for the 2010 season and the main reason is quarterback Ryan Mallet. Mallet might just be the single-greatest college football player next year and has a good chance of being the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.
He'll have his hands full, however, if he doesn't want to disappoint the Arkansas faithful.
Arkansas finished 8-5 last season, but this could be its year to make a push toward the top of the standings in the SEC.
With Mallet leading the offense it will be difficult for anyone to stop the Razorbacks when they're rolling on all cylinders.
There are five games on the schedule you have to assume Arkansas will win; those would be against Tennessee Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, and UTEP.
That means it has to find four wins against the likes of Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Mississippi State, and LSU; the Razorbacks can do that.
Too Low: Auburn
12 of 20
Over/Under: Eight-and-a-half wins
2009 was a building year for Auburn and a great turnaround after a 5-7 finish to the 2008 season. This could be the year it gets back into the competition with the elite of the SEC.
It may have lost Ben Tate at running back, but Cam Newton should do wonders as the expected starer at QB.
Don't underestimate the effect the former Florida Gator can have on this program. He's a dangerous weapon for bot the passing game and running game and should really open up the offense.
Add in a top-notch 2010 recruiting class headlined by Michael Dyer and the Tigers look very strong.
Auburn is a team to definitely keep your eye on in 2010. This team can easily start the year 6-0 with games against Arkansas State, Mississippi State, Clemson, South Carolina, Louisiana-Monroe, and Kentucky.
Find three more wins throughout the year and the odds are beat.
Too Low: Connecticut
13 of 20
Over/Under: Eight wins
UConn has a lot to be excited about in 2010. They return most of their main contributors, the core players are young and full of potential, the offensive line looks strong as does the running game, and the passing attack finally appears to be catching up as well.
They've appeared on some preseason top 25 lists after an 8-5 season last year. That's because it lost five games a year ago by a combined 15 points and finished the season with four straight wins.
The Huskies have got young and talented players who've been waiting for their chance to shine for years.
Expect them to build off their momentum and win more games in 2010, especially with a favorable schedule throughout most of the year.
There are a few tough matchups like road games against Michigan and Rutgers, as well as visits from West Virginia, Pitt and Cincinnati, but don't doubt that UConn has the talent to reach nine wins.
Too Low: Iowa
14 of 20
Over/Under: Eight-and-a-half wins
Iowa returns to the field minus five starters on offense, including three offensive linemen, most notably left tackle Bryan Bulaga.
Replacing them will be no easy task, but luckily the Hawkeyes' greatest strength, their stingy defense, will remain mostly intact.
If quarterback Ricky Stanzi can stay healthy next season and avoid the minor injuries that cost Iowa wins against Northwestern and Ohio State last year, the team should be in very good shape.
Most look at the deficiencies on defense and loose hope for the Hawkeyes, but there's plenty of talent to fill-in the gaps and it would be very surprising to see them stumble all the way to 8-5 in 2010.
Visits from Ohio State and Wisconsin are by far the toughest matchups on the schedule.
Too Low: LSU
15 of 20
Over/Under: Eight wins
The Tigers have to find replacements at receiver after losing Brandon LaFell, but expect Rueben Randle to emerge as possibly an even better option.
Jordan Jefferson didn't really seem all that comfortable for long stretches of the season, but a year under his belt should make a difference for LSU's quarterback.
Expect Les Miles to get Russell Shepard more involved in the offense, and don't worry about that defense much at all—it's stacked.
It wouldn't be surprising at all to see them win their conference while everyone is focused on Alabama and Florida.
This team went 9-4 last season and should be better in 2010 so to assume they'll drop a game is a rough call by the odds makers.
The schedule is tough, but no tougher than in was in 2009; LSU will at least match their win total.
Too Low: Miami
16 of 20
Over/Under: Eight-and-a-half wins
Miami's high flying offense returns to the field relatively intact, but there are worries on the defensive side of the ball.
Jacory Harris should be better after his first full season as the starter, and the offensive line's losses will be supplemented by Seantrel Henderson's addition.
The secondary and linebacker corps will be under the watchful eye of Randy Shannon, but the offense should relieve a lot of the pressure.
This could be the year Hurricanes finally win their first ACC championship, but they'll have to go through some pretty talented teams to get there and the schedule is no joke.
Still, as good as the top-end of the ACC is, it looks equally weak on the bottom. Clemson and Georgia Tech have serious question marks and beyond Virginia Tech, Miami should be the favorites to win the conference.
Too Low: North Carolina
17 of 20
Over/Under: Eight wins
North Carolina has one of the top defenses in the nation and one of the best defensive lines you'll ever come across.That's if Marvin Austin, its stud defensive tackle isn't suspended for his senior year
Butch Davis' crew is simply stacked on the defensive side of the ball regardless though, and based on the way they won games last year, look for their defense to step up and be the decider in an even bigger way in 2010.
The Tar Heels need to figure out exactly what they have in T.J. Yates, and there are holes to address in the receiving game, but if they can figure it out they have as good a chance as anyone to take the ACC.
Of all the major conferences, the ACC is wide open like no others. It's anyone's game, but it will be a lot harder for North Carolina without Austin than with him.
They may have LSU, Miami, FSU, and Virginia Tech on the schedule, but there isn't another game they shouldn't be favored in along the way.
Too Low: Oregon State
18 of 20
Over/Under: Seven wins
The Pac 10 is one of the most interesting conferences to watch next season because there really isn't a definable "lock" to win it all. Most experts will go with Oregon or think USC will rebound, but both of those programs have big question marks to address.
Oregon State is a team that not too many people are looking at, but they have the offensive firepower to do some serious damage in 2010.
The Rodgers brothers, Jacquizz and James are one of the best one-two punches in the country at tailback and receiver.
Other than that, they head to the field loaded with a lot of quality talent on both sides of the ball.
With the over/under set at seven wins you have to have a little faith this team will be able to at least match their win-total from a year ago and go 8-5.
Too Low: Pittsburgh
19 of 20
Over/Under: Eight wins
Pitt will have to find a new starting quarterback with Bill Stull gone, but this team is stacked on both sides of the ball, and if that's your biggest weakness, you're in pretty good shape.
It has two of the best playmakers in the country with running back Dion Lewis and receiver Jonathan Baldwin and is coming off its first 10-win season under head coach Dave Wannstedt.
It's the team to beat in the Big East and could make an improbable run at a national championship if the stars align.
Considering Pitt is favored to win the Big East, its quite a shot at the conference to put the expected conference champs over/under at just eight games.
They have away games against Utah, Notre Dame, Connecticut, and Cincinnati, as well as visits from Miami and West Virginia, but none of those games aren't winnable.
Too Low: Texas Tech
20 of 20
Over/Under: Eight wins
Texas Texas might be one of the most underrated teams in the country, and if it wasn't for the expected level of competition in the Big 12, you'd hear a lot more about them.
Tommy Tuberville's takeover of the Red Raiders should be one of the more interesting storylines to follow this season. He'll be changing up the spread offense a bit and putting his own touch on the running game and, believe it or not, speeding up the passing game.
That same type of switch will take place on defense, where it'll be running a hybrid 3-4/4-3.
It hasn't lost many starters, but if there's an X-Factor, it's the offensive line. This team can't succeed unless the unit pulls its own.
This team is the ultimate dark horse in 2010 and one that will turn a lot of heads down the stretch. They're long shots to win the Big 12 and given little credit with their over/under, but they have the talent to beat both bets.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
