College Football: Michigan State Spartans, Big Ten's Darkest Dark Horse

Prior to every college football season, hordes of analysts set out to predict the entire season; conference by conference, game by game. At these heavily-secured prognosticating round tables, teams and players are dissected down to the most minute details.

The smartest sports fans in the world—Vegas odds-makers—choose the most likely teams in each conference to win their respective conferences and set gambling lines based on their evaluations of each team to win their conference.

The media has their picks, usually based off of Vegas' odds, and these usually end up being the teams talked about all year until Saban, Tressel, et al fulfill the conference championship expectations set forth by about 30 percent of America's arm-chair quarterbacks.

Well, I'm going to go against the grain.

I'm offering predictions for the winners of each BCS conference should all hell break loose, and Tim Tebow is nowhere around to save the children.

These aren't the teams that will be whipping posts week-in and week-out (read: Washington St.). These are the teams that, if they play their hearts out on the right Saturdays this season, might just stumble upon a conference championship.

Now: The Big 10.

The Michigan State Spartans

Picking a darkhorse team in a conference without a championship game is a bit tougher because you can't just rely on a weak division, a favorable schedule, and an upset in the conference championship game. Instead, in conferences such as the Big Ten, a darkhorse has to pull several upsets and hope that the favorites drop a game or two to the right teams.

Having said that, the Michigan State Spartans could surpass all expectations (and the Buckeyes) with a dream season and some help from the rest of the conference.

Mark Dantonio's team returns 13 starters from a squad that went 6-7 last season, the final loss being a 41-31 shoot out against Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl.

This season, they will hope to ride the arm of junior quarterback Kirk Cousins to an even better record and perhaps a conference championship.

Cousins, who started last season, is expected to be one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten, and could be the best pocket passer in the conference. Last year, Cousins led Michigan State to the second-best passing offense in the conference, accumulating 269.4 yards per game through the air.

Cousins will have a very good, very deep stable of receivers to throw to as well.

B.J. Cunningham, Keshawn Martin, and Mark Dell all have experience catching the ball from Cousins, while quarterback-turner-receiver Keith Nichol thinks like a signal-caller and could be utilized in a trick-play or two throughout the season.

The backfield poses a bit of a question mark for the Spartans, as their roster does not feature a running back who is currently a defensive nightmare.

Sophomore Larry Caper is a powerful back who will likely get the bulk of the carries, but the backfield as a whole will have to improve on their 136.8 yards per game rushing from last year, which finished a middling sixth in the conference.

Le'Veon Bell is a 221 lb. rhinoceros of a running back who will likely get goal line carries, while 5'6'' Nick Hill is a quick scat back who should get some catches out in the flat. Both of these statements are based on the assumption that they will not be red-shirted, as these two backs are both true freshmen.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan State boasts perhaps the best defender in this traditionally defensive-minded league.

Senior linebacker Greg Jones led the Big Ten last season with 154 tackles (11.8 per game), and was fifth in sacks (with nine) despite not being a down-lineman. If teams are going to beat Michigan State, they will have to keep the ball away from Jones, a hard-hitter with a nose for the ball.

Meanwhile, if the Spartans are going to make a run for the conference title, their secondary must shape up in a big way. In 2009, only Idaho and Nevada allowed more passing touchdowns than Michigan State.

The secondary returns two starters in Chris Rucker and Trenton Robinson, who have to improve their play and set an example for whoever comes out of training camp starting in the other two DB positions.

Upgrades must also be seen along the defensive line, for opposing quarterbacks had a lot of time to pick apart the secondary last season. The line returns only one starter, but also brings in five-star recruit William Gholston, who has Spartan fans giddy about the prospect of him chasing down quarterbacks in the backfield.

As for Michigan State's schedule, they benefit from not having to play the highly touted Buckeyes, neither at home nor on the road. Hosting Wisconsin is perhaps their biggest conference home game, while an early home date with Notre Dame should serve as a barometer for how good this team could be.

But, while not playing Ohio State is nice, not many teams should envy the Spartans, who have to travel to Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan.

They should beat Michigan, but you never know what happens in a rivalry game such as that.

Meanwhile, if the Spartans can take just one of the games at Iowa or at Penn State in the season finale, as well as to take care of business at home against Wisconsin, they could find themselves at 7-1 in the conference.

I know.

Predicting Michigan State to go 7-1 in the Big Ten is a very, very bold statement. But I am not exactly predicting that. I am saying that it could happen if the program plays its cards right.

And while a 7-1 record might not be enough, as Ohio State could very well be undefeated in the conference, if the Buckeyes were to slip up once (don't expect them to lose two in conference), then a 7-1 tie atop the conference standings would make for an intriguing tie-breaker to see who would represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.

(Though, if Ohio State is undefeated and plays in the BCS Championship game, and if Michigan State is 7-1, look for the Spartans to make an appearance in Pasadena.)

So with an improved secondary and an established backfield, to go along with the already solid quarterback, receivers, and linebackers, Sparty just could play himself into a conference championship. Granted, it would take a little luck, but maybe they'll be able to steal some of that from the Irish when they meet in September.

Coming Up Next Week: The Pac-10.