Breaking Down the Big Ten, Part Eight: The Penn State Nittany Lions
In 1966, Lyndon B. Johnson was president. The United States was still knee-deep in the Cold War, and two years into the official beginning of the Vietnam Conflict.
Bob Dylan released "Blonde on Blonde," and the Beach Boys released "Pet Sounds."
The Baltimore Orioles swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series. The Green Bay Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs to win the first Super Bowl.
College Football's championship was marred by controversy, with Notre Dame, Alabama, and Michigan State each claiming the prize.
Also, a little known assistant coach by the name of Joe Paterno ascended to the head coaching position at Pennsylvania State University.
45 years and 394 wins later, and nothing has changed for Joe Pa.
Well, sort of. In 1993, Penn State athletics joined the Big Ten. Then, there were some lean years in the early part of the millennium, which was followed by the HD Spread Offense .
Now, Penn State is back, but they're not quite back on top. Since 2005, PSU has posted a 51-13 record , which ties them for seventh amongst all FBS teams over the last five years.
Needless to say, that is a superb accomplishment, but a football program with the prestige of Penn State measures success by national titles and big game wins. With that in mind, consider that since their 2006 Orange Bowl win, PSU has shared only one Big Ten title, and lost one Rose Bowl game.
Furthermore, looking at Penn State over the last 10 years, their record is a slightly less impressive 77-46 , which leaves them as 29th amongst FBS teams.
Over that time, they've won two Big Ten Championships and gone to two BCS bowls.
Again, 77-46 is pretty good, and 51-13 is very good, but is it good enough for a school like Penn State?
Moreover, where will the 2010 Nittany Lions fit into all of this?
Offense
Most pundits are basing Penn State's success or failure on the success or failure of their new quarterback, and maybe there is a good deal of truth to that.
However, some have sagely noted that the real crux of this offense will lie on the o-line.
In 2009, PSU broke in four new offensive linemen and the results were mixed. The Lions were fifth in the conference in rushing offense . They were also third in the conference in sacks allowed .
Those are very solid numbers until you look at how they did against top 25 defenses .
Against Iowa, they had 109 yards rushing, which was over 60 yards less than their season average. Also, quarterback Daryll Clark was sacked twice and threw three interceptions. Those three picks account for 30 percent of the interceptions he threw on the entire year.
Against Ohio State, they had 76 yards rushing. Clark threw one pick and was sacked twice.
Against LSU, they rushed for 124 yards, while Clark was sacked once.
It is notable that both the Iowa and OSU games were at home.
Moving into 2010, Penn State loses two very good linemen: All-Big Ten tackle Dennis Landolt, as well as Ako Poti.
Outside of those two losses, they return a good deal of experience on the line. It starts at the center position where senior and PSU legacy, Stefen Wisniewski will anchor the line and will receive All-Big Ten laurels. Wisniewski, who has bounced from guard to center, seems to be poised to move back to guard .
After that, the most likely starters will be four of: Seniors Lou Eliades and Doug Klopacz, juniors Johnnie Troutman, Quinn Barham, and DeOn'tae Pannell, sophomore Matt Stankiewitch, and redshirt freshman Eric Shrive.
All except Shrive, Barham, and Klopacz started multiple games last season.
While all that experience should bode well for the Lions this year, the early returns are not good. The line struggled considerably in the spring game , and it is never a good sign when a team is still attempting to answer a question that should have been resolved last season.
As for the quarterback question, sophomore Kevin Newsome seems to be the slight favorite, with fellow sophomore Matt McGloin pushing him. However, once again, neither shined very brightly in the spring game. In fact, both were outplayed by true freshman Paul Jones .
Certainly, it is possible that whoever starts at quarterback could come right in and excel, just like former starting PSU quarterbacks, Clark and Michael Robinson.
Nonetheless, I doubt it. The key difference is that when Clark and Robinson became starters, both had an experienced, proven, and fairly formidable o-line in front of them.
The good news is that whoever does start will be aided considerably by the return of senior running back Evan Royster.
Royster had a good 2009, rushing for 1,169 yards with an average of 5.7 per carry. However, once again, those numbers are deceptive.
Against Iowa, Royster logged 69 yards for an average of 4.06 per carry. Against OSU, he ran for 36 for 2.77 YPC. Against LSU, he put up 65 yards for a 3.82 average. He did not score a touchdown in any of those games.
Obviously, it's not fair to put all of that on Royster's shoulders, as the line and Clark had their own problems in those games. However, I expect Royster will come into 2010 with a sizable chip on his shoulder.
The Lions return most of their receiving corp with the lone exception being tight end Anthony Quarless. In 2009, Quarless had 41 receptions for 536 yards. He will be missed, but PSU has plenty of experienced receiving targets.
Most notable are junior Derek Moye and senior Graham Zug. Last season, they combined for 84 receptions for 1,385 yards and 13 touchdowns. Also, senior Brett Brackett will look to get some playing time.
There will also be a number of talented underclassmen that will be pushing for playing time including: Freshmen Shawney Kersey and Brandon Moseby-Felder, and sophomore Justin Brown.
Last season, PSU ranked second in the Big Ten in total offense, scoring 29.7 points per game. However, their scoring offense ranked fifth in conference-only games , putting up 28.8 points per game.
Given the quarterback question, as well as the issues that still exist on the offensive line, I'd be surprised if Penn State doesn't slip a bit this season.
Nevertheless, the bigger question is how will they perform against better teams?
Defense
In 2009, Penn State had the top scoring defense in the Big Ten, letting up an impressive 11.8 points per game.
They weren't quite as good in conference games, letting 14.9 per game , but that was still good enough for second in the conference.
However, that team graduated all three of their starting linebackers, one starting lineman, one cornerback, and key depth along the line and in the secondary.
More telling is who specifically graduated.
Jared Odrick won the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year , and Defensive Linemen of the Year, as chosen by the coaches. He started for three seasons, and the Miami Dolphins drafted him in the first round of the NFL Draft.
As for the linebackers, Navorro Bowman was a two-year starter, and also All-Big Ten. He left school one year early, and was chosen in the third round of the draft.
Sean Lee was a three-year starter, and second team All-Big Ten. He was taken in the second round of the draft.
Josh Hull was a former walk-on who started for two years, and was second team All-Big Ten, as chosen by the media. He was drafted in the seventh round.
At cornerback, both Knowledge Timmons and A.J. Wallace earned starts in 2009, though Wallace got the majority of the playing time. During that time, he accumulated 3 interceptions and 36 tackles.
The question is can the Penn State defense bounce back from those losses?
The answer is, "yes."
Over the last seven years, Penn State has averaged more than 20 points allowed only once. That was in 2003; a season in which PSU went 3-9, and the offense was utterly inept, as well as last in the conference in time of possession.
Since 2003, they have been a top 10 defense four times, and a top 15 defense six times.
In short, in college football there are little things you can assume : Penn State having a quality defense is one of them.
Of course, it remains to be seen just how good the Lions' defense is.
On the line, senior Ollie Ogbu and junior Jack Crawford are stars-in-the-making. Phil Steele tabbed both as pre-season All-Big Ten players , with Ogbu showing up on the second team and Crawford on the third.
Rounding out the line will be juniors Eric Lattimore and Devon Still. You can also expect sophomore Sean Stanley to be in the mix.
However, Brandon Ware appears to still be buried deeply in Joe Pa's doghouse. Don't expect to see him any time soon.
Meanwhile, four players appear to be vying for the three starting linebacker spots: Seniors Bani Gbadyu and Chris Colasanti, junior Nate Stupar, and sophomore Mike Mauti.
Also, sophomores Mike Yancich and converted safety, Gerald Hodges will compete for some playing time.
Finally, the secondary is more or less set with returning starters, juniors Drew Astorino and Nick Sukay at the safety positions. Also, junior D'Anton Lynn will be the returning starter at cornerback.
The other corner will be manned by true sophomore Stephon Morris. He was very impressive in his freshman season, enough so to earn a start against Michigan State.
Also, junior Chaz Powell, who was a receiver last season, has switched to corner. He is currently listed as No. 2 behind Morris, but it is possible he could switch to safety, as there is no established depth behind Astorino and Sukay.
Overall, I expect the line to be very formidable, and should be one of the four best d-lines in the Big Ten this year; a year in which the Big Ten is stocked with defensive linemen.
Also, the secondary should be one of the four best in the conference, though depth is a major concern.
Surprisingly, it is linebackers that worry me a bit.
Obviously, it is Linebacker U , so they will field three quality backers. However, I don't know that they'll be as good as Sean Lee, Dan Connor, Paul Posluszny, LeVar Arrington, or, dare I say, Jack Ham .
My primary worry is that two of the four potential starters—Gbadyu and Colasanti—are essentially utility players and longtime backups that haven't cracked the starting lineup until now.
Can they be solid, Big Ten linebackers? Absolutely. Is it likely that they will be All-Big Ten or All-American quality linebackers? Not so likely.
The problem is, unless the quarterback or o-line situation quickly cleans itself up, they may need to be more than solid if Penn State is to compete for the Big Ten Championship.
Overall, I still expect Penn State to have one of the three best defenses in the conference this season. However, I think they'll finish the year behind Iowa and Ohio State.
Schedule
Penn State opens the year with a home game against Youngstown State, which they will win.
Then they travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the defending national champions. I don't think their chances are as hopeless as some people might like to paint them. However, it doesn't look good.
After that, they finish their out-of-conference schedule, playing Kent State and Temple, both of which they will win.
In my opinion, that leaves them at 3-1 heading into the Big Ten slate.
They begin with a road game against an Iowa team that will be ranked in the top 10 to begin the season. It remains to be seen whether they will still be there when Penn State arrives.
After this, PSU goes back home to play Illinois. This is followed by an open week, and then they travel to Minnesota.
They play both Michigan and Northwestern in consecutive home games, after which are the Buckeyes in Columbus.
The Nits close out the year playing Indiana on a "neutral" field in Landover, Maryland (i.e. it's a home-away-from-home game for Penn State), and then come back to Happy Valley to play Michigan State.
As I said, I think they will lose to Alabama. I also don't see their inexperienced quarterback and questionable o-line beating Iowa's defense in Iowa City.
If said quarterback and o-line really come around as the season progresses, they will have a shot in Columbus. However, it will be a very long shot.
They will beat Illinois, Minnesota, and Indiana.
That gives them six wins and three losses, leaving their games against Michigan, Northwestern, and Michigan State—all home games—as the swing games.
Intangibles
The key issue with this team is not so much a matter of whether they can replace the talent they lost to graduation in 2009. Rather, can they replace the leadership they lost?
Teams lose seniors. That is the way it goes.
However, Penn State lost Daryll Clark, their all-time leader in touchdown passes, as well as their single season leader in passing yardage and touchdown passes.
He leaves Penn State with a record of 22-4 as a starter.
Sean Lee, along with Clark, was a team captain, and one more in a long line of Penn State linebacker tradition.
The same can be said, to a lesser degree, of Navorro Bowman and Josh Hull.
Throw in Jared Odrick and you've got holes.
Again, PSU has as much talent as any team in the conference, let alone in the country. It takes leaders to mold that talent into winners.
Also, I have neglected to mention that Jeremy Boone, the Nits' second team All-Big Ten punter has graduated. That is one more hurdle the defense will have to overcome.
Finally, Penn State was ninth in the conference in both punt returns and kickoff returns.
Their primary kick returner, Chaz Powell , returns this season. Also, they juggled their punt returner quite a bit, with four separate players each logging multiple returns.
With an offense that could use good field position, this area is a cause of concern.
Worst Case Scenario
Penn State handily beats Youngstown State, Temple, and Kent State, but Alabama rolls right over them.
In the Bama game, the o-line continues its struggles of last season, and the young quarterback feels the brunt of that.
Meanwhile, the defense is good in typical Penn State style, but is not spectacular.
They proceed to lose to Iowa and beat Illinois. They head into their bye week with a 4-2 record, at which time they try to tweak the struggling offense.
They appear to take one step forward as they destroy Minnesota. However, the next week they take two steps back when Michigan beats them.
They win two of the last three games, beating Indiana, but losing to either Northwestern or Michigan State.
Final Record: 7-5
Best Case Scenario
Penn State predictably rolls over Youngstown State, Temple, and Kent State.
On the other hand, they lose to Alabama, but they keep it very close. Moreover, the young quarterback and much maligned o-line look very good in the loss.
They come into Iowa City, and surprise many by putting up over 100 rushing yards on what looks to be a staunch Iowa defense. They lose, but again, keep it close.
Not one for moral victories, Joe Pa rolls over Illinois and Minnesota, and solidly beats Michigan and Northwestern.
They head into Columbus where they shock an undefeated OSU squad that is looking past them, towards their games against Iowa and Michigan.
The Nits finish out the year handily beating Indiana and Michigan State, finishing at a cool and surprising 10-2.
My Prediction
I think PSU will go 3-1 out-of-conference, with the loss obviously coming to Alabama. As Bama's primary weakness going into this year is the secondary, I don't see PSU being able to pass their way to a win.
As I previously said, I also don't see them getting by what will surely be a top 15 defense in Iowa City.
They'll beat Illinois and Minnesota handily, and they will squeeze by Michigan, probably aided by a turnover or two.
I feel like their chances against Ohio State have more to do with the Buckeyes than them, and that is never a good sign. I see PSU losing to OSU by at least two touchdowns.
They will beat Northwestern and dispose of Indiana, leaving them at 8-3 for their final game of the season against Michigan State.
That will be a tight one, but they'll squeeze by.
In truth, if Michigan, Northwestern, and Michigan State weren't in Happy Valley, I'd probably be inclined to lean the other direction. In fact, I've wavered five or ten times on the Michigan game, despite it being at Happy Valley. No matter how that game turns out, I don't think I'll be surprised.
However, Michigan State has not won at Penn State since the Nits started playing Big Ten football in 1993. Furthermore, Northwestern has only won in Beaver Stadium once in that time, and that was the ill-fated 2004 season . I don't think either of them will do it this season.
Final Record: 9-3.
PSU receives a bid to play in the Gator Bowl against a team from the SEC. In fact, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it is a replay of last season's Capitol One Bowl against LSU, though I doubt this year's LSU squad will be ranked or favored.
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