2010 College Football Predictions: 10 Safe Bets for the 2010 Season

In college football, fans come to expect certain things from their team.

For example, win or lose, Wisconsin Badger fans expect a 1,000-yard rusher, year-in and year-out. The nature of the Badgers' style of play dictates such numbers.

Under former coach Mike Leach, Texas Tech fans expected their quarterback to throw for over 4,000 yards per season.

Nevertheless, players graduate and teams progress, and occasionally fans have to temper their expectations.

What if the Badgers graduated their entire offensive line, and were starting a true freshman tailback and quarterback? Would it be reasonable to expect said tailback not to reach the 1,000-yard plateau?

As it happens, that is not a worry for Wisconsin this season, as they return their entire line, their quarterback, and Heisman hopeful John Clay in the backfield.

The question in Madison is not whether Clay will run for 1,000 yards, but whether he will top 2,000.

However, what of Brian Kelly, who will begin his career as the coach of Notre Dame? Will his offense flourish as it did last season in Cincinnati?

What of Florida? Is there life in Gainesville after the departure of former Heisman Award-winning wunderkind, Tim Tebow?

Can Oklahoma rebound from a disappointing 2009? Can Oregon replace Jeremiah Masoli?

These are some of the questions many fans are asking, and that I will attempt to answer.

Right or wrong, it goes without saying I am not psychic. Rather, I have looked at past statistics and trends of the respective teams and coaches.

With these in mind, I have come up with some fairly safe answers to questions that appear to be plaguing various teams around the country.

Of course, just because a team's passing offense appears to be in safe hands, does not mean it will translate into wins.

However, it certainly can't hurt.

Michigan's Offense

In 2010, Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez's seat couldn't be any hotter.

In his two years as coach of the prestigious Michigan Wolverines, he has failed even to qualify his team for a bowl. This season, it is possible he will need at least eight wins to keep his job.

In order to do that, he will have to start with his offense.

That offense was less-than-spectacular in 2009. Last season, they only scored 22.1 points in conference games. That left them as ninth in the conference.

Many people and pundits were quick to blame the Wolverines' lackluster defense for their 5-7 record, and that defense was decidedly lackluster.

However, if the offense had been more efficient and more responsible with the ball, the defense would have done enough to win more than five games.

Nevertheless, when one steps back and looks at the Michigan offense as a whole, its issues begin to make sense.

First of all, they were starting a true freshman quarterback. Secondly, that freshman quarterback was undersized, which led to his being banged up for the entire second half of the year.

Thirdly, the offensive line was also banged up quite a bit. This led to a constant shuffling of said o-line.

When you've got an inexperienced, unhealthy quarterback playing behind an o-line that is constantly in flux, typically two things will happen: Ineffectiveness and turnovers.

The ineffectiveness has already been noted. As for the turnovers, Michigan had a whopping minus-1.62 turnover margin in conference play. Furthermore, they turned the ball over six times in the red zone.

Over the duration of eight games, such red zone ineptitude is a potential point swing of 42 points.

As Phil Steele has often noted turnovers are an element of football that has a great deal to do with luck. Moreover, turnovers are like a pendulum that swings back and forth from year to year.

In 2010, it is reasonable to expect Michigan's turnover pendulum to swing heavily back into their favor. Such thinking is not only based on the aforementioned luck, but also common sense.

A healthy, experienced quarterback coupled with a healthy, cohesive line typically translates to a more secure football. It also translates into a fluid offense that moves the football and scores points.

In 2010, I'd be surprised if the Wolverines don't put up 30 points per game, and aren't one of the top two offenses in the Big Ten.

As for the Michigan defense, that is another story.

Oregon's Quarterback

Heading into 2010, the Oregon Ducks looked to be a shoo-in to win the Pac-10. Moreover, they were on the shortlist of teams in contention to go to the National Title game.

After all, they were returning every starter on the seventh best offense in the country. In 2009, they scored an average of 37.7 points per game. In 2010, it was reasonable to expect them to put up over 40.

Then the bottom fell out. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was arrested for burglary.

Coach Chip Kelly has since dismissed him from the team .

While the Ducks still return 10 starters, the question remains, can they replace Masoli? After all, in Chip Kelly's offense, a quarterback is expected to do a lot.

Last season, Masoli not only passed for 2,147 yards, but he was also the team's second leading rusher, logging 668 yards.

The leading candidates for Masoli's job will be junior Nate Costa and sophomore Darron Thomas.

While Costa has more experience and is a very able passer, Thomas is a much better runner and overall threat out of Kelly's spread option offense.

Whoever starts, the question is will he be able to replace Masoli's production?

I suspect he will.

In Chip Kelly's eight years as the offensive coordinator of New Hampshire, his offense averaged 400 yards or better seven times. They scored more than 30 points per game in each of his last four seasons.

He became the offensive coordinator in Eugene in 2007, and took a talented, though little known Dennis Dixon, and transformed him into a Heisman contender.

The Ducks have had the top offense in the Pac-10 for all of his three years in Eugene—two as offensive coordinator and one as head coach. During that time, they have averaged 38.8 points per game.

Moreover, both Masoli and Dixon put up well over 2,000 yards—combined rushing and passing—in each of their years starting.

There might be some bumps along the way, but there is no reason not to expect Costa or more probably Thomas to make Duck fans forget Masoli by year's end.

Virginia Tech's Defense

In 2010, the Virginia Tech Hokies will begin the year in the top 15, and will be one of the dark horse candidates to win the National Championship.

They will do it on the back of their offense, which boasts one of the best sets of returning skill players in the country.

They return a senior quarterback in Tyrod Taylor and a sophomore running back in Ryan Williams. Last season, the two combined to rush for more than 2,000 yards.

Couple those two with the return of all of their key receivers, as well as three offensive linemen, and the Hokies have the potential to put points on the board.

However, questions abound on defense.

Tech only returns four starters: One lineman, two linebackers, and one cornerback. Last season, Tech had the best scoring defense in the conference, and the 11th best in the nation.

Thus, the question is, can Frank Beamer field a defense good enough to contend for the ACC Coastal championship, the ACC conference crown, and even the National Title?

To paraphrase our President, yes, he can.

Since Virginia Tech joined the ACC in 2004, the Hokies have been one of the conference's top two scoring defenses every year. In that time, they have been ranked in the top ten in the nation four times.

Over those six years, their average points allowed per game has been 13.8.

Their worst scoring defense was 2008, when they let up 17.5 points per game. That number was still good enough for 13th in the country.

In short, odds are pretty good that Tech will field a salty defense that will be a top 20 unit by the year's end.

It remains to be seen whether they will reach their potential quickly enough to stave off an early season test against the Boise State Broncos' explosive offense.

Notre Dame's Passing Offense

I don't like Notre Dame. I couldn't stand Charlie Weis. I don't particularly care for Brian Kelly.

However, I do think Kelly is a superb hire for the Irish. I think he is the first coach since Lou Holtz that has the ability to bring the Irish back to consistent national prominence.

In Kelly's case, I expect that resurgence will start with his offense.

In a way, Charlie Weis may have done Kelly a favor in convincing Jimmy Clausen to declare early for the NFL. It might be best if Kelly starts from as clean a slate as possible.

The reason for this obviously has to do with Kelly's offensive scheme, but also because Kelly is a proven developer of talent. Kelly develops his players, and especially his quarterbacks, into winners.

In the six years he spent coaching his previous teams—Central Michigan and Cincinnati—he coached four different starting quarterbacks: Kent Smith, Dan LeFevour, Ben Mauk, and Tony Pike.

During that time, their average stat line read as follows: 365 Attempts, 223 Completions, 61.1 completion percentage, 2,694 yards, 8 Int, 23 TD, 139.1 QB rating. They also rushed for an average of 291 yards per season.

The worst any of his quarterbacks did was in his first year at Central Michigan. In that season, junior Kent Smith had a quarterback rating of 125.14; by no means great, but certainly respectable.

Most importantly, the teams those players quarterbacked went a combined 53-22 over those years.

Kelly's first Notre Dame project will be Dayne Crist , a redshirt sophomore out of California.

Crist played sparingly last season. As could have been expected, when he did play, he was fairly ineffective.

However, he is a prototypical quarterback for Kelly's offense. He is smart, athletic, and, in high school, he played in an offense similar to Kelly's.

Heading into 2010, I'd be very surprised if Crist doesn't have numbers similar to Kelly's former quarterbacks.

Penn State's Linebackers and Overall Defense

In 2009, Penn State had the top scoring defense in the Big Ten.

That was in a conference that, along with Penn State, had three of the top ten defenses in the country.

However, the Nits graduated all three of their starting linebackers, their starting defensive tackle, one starting cornerback, their punter, as well as key depth along the line and in the backfield.

Perhaps more telling are the specific players they lost.

Jared Odrick, the defensive tackle, was an All-American, and the Big Ten coaches' Defensive Player of the Year.

As for the linebackers, Navorro Bowman was consensus All-Big Ten, while Sean Lee was consensus second team All-Big Ten.

The third linebacker, Josh Hull, was second team All-Big Ten, as chosen by the conference media. All three heard their names called in this year's NFL Draft.

Finally, Jeremy Boone, the punter, was consensus second-team All-Big Ten.

Heading into 2010, one is left to ask if the Nittany Lions can rebound from these losses?

The answer is a resounding, "yes." After all, they've earned the moniker Linebacker U for a reason.

Over the last seven years, Penn State has let up more than 20 points per game only once, and that was in 2003, when they surrendered 21.3 points per game.

In 2007, the season after the graduation of Butkus Award-winning linebacker Paul Pozluszny, PSU had the second best defense in the conference surrendering 17.6 points per game.

In 2008, the season after the graduation of Bednarik Award-winning linebacker Dan Connor, Penn State led the conference in scoring defense surrendering 12.4 per game.

Over the aforementioned seven seasons, they have been a top 10 defense four times. Moreover, they were the 11th-best scoring defense in the country in two more of those seasons.

Put simply, the Nittany Lions are a team that reloads on defense. In 2010, they might not be quite as good as they were in 2009, but they will be very good.

Of course, their quarterback situation is something else entirely.

Florida's Quarterback and Offense

In Tim Tebow's four years at the University of Florida, he had an average stat line of: 66.5 completion percentage, 2,321 passing yards, 5 interceptions, 22 touchdowns, with a quarterback rating of 177,69.

Moreover, he rushed for an average of 737 yards per season, averaging 4.39 per carry.

He also won two National Championships (one as the starter), went to three BCS bowls, and won one Heisman Trophy.

Well, he has moved on to the NFL, and the Gators are left to ask if there is life after Tebow?

In order to answer that question, all one has to do is look at the other quarterbacks Florida coach Urban Meyer has taken under his wing.

First of all, there is Tebow's predecessor at Florida, Chris Leak. Before even looking at Leak's numbers, it should be noted that Urban Meyer's offense requires the quarterback to get very involved in the rushing game.

Chris Leak, who was more of a pocket passer, was not ideally suited to that offense.

Nevertheless, in his years starting under Meyer he completed 63.2 percent of his passes for an average of 2,791 yards, for 43 touchdowns and 19 interceptions.

In the year before Meyer arrived, Leak had been a decent though inconsistent sophomore under former coach Ron Zook.

Meanwhile, in Meyer's two years at Utah, he took an unknown, lightly recruited Alex Smith, and helped to mold him into the No. 1 player taken in 2005's NFL Draft.

Smith's average stats under Meyer are as follows: 66.25 completion percentage, 2,600 passing yards, 3.5 interceptions, and 23.5 touchdowns. He also rushed for an average of 542 yards per season.

Before that, Meyer spent two years at Bowling Green working with Josh Harris. Like Smith, before Meyer arrived, Harris was a talented though lightly recruited quarterback that had minimal experience.

His one full year starting under Meyer—2002—saw him complete 56.1 percent of his passes for 2,425 yards, 11 interceptions, and 18 touchdowns. He also rushed for 737 yards and 20 touchdowns.

In 2001, Meyer platooned Harris and Andy Sahm. Their combined totals were 61.2 completion percentage, 2,387 passing yards, 13 interceptions, and 20 touchdowns. They also combined to rush for over 600 yards.

In 2010, it is likely that junior John Brantley will attempt to fill Tim Tebow's sizable shoes.

While I think it will be extremely difficult to take over Tebow's intangible qualities and abilities as a leader, I'd be surprised if Brantley has too many troubles as a quarterback.

Georgia Tech's B-Back and Running Game

In two years at Georgia Tech, Paul Johnson has installed one of the strongest rushing attacks in the country. It is basically a flexbone option offense, and it is essentially run exactly the same as it was in the 1980's.

Its key elements are three primary rushing options—the quarterback, two "A" Backs and the "B" Back. While the passing game is very simplistic, it does require one very skilled, athletic, and large receiver that can run fly routes, and who forces defenses to keep their safeties out of the box.

Many critics have questioned the scheme, saying it is antiquated, and the lack of a sophisticated passing game cannot work in a major conference.

However, In 2010, Johnson's offense was the 11th best scoring offense in the country, putting up 35.3 points per game. Furthermore, it was the second strongest rushing offense in the country, piling up 3,993 yards on the ground.

However, B Back Jonathan Dwyer opted to declare for the NFL draft one year early. Moreover, wide receiver Demaryius Thomas also elected to leave for the NFL.

Both players heard their names called, with Thomas getting picked in the first round and Dwyer going in the sixth.

On top of that, Tech graduated three offensive linemen.

Thus, the question remains whether the Yellow Jackets can maintain the offensive success they had in 2010.

It is, of course, arguable that they might not be quite as successful as they were last season, but it is safe to say they will still field a very powerful offense.

For proof of this, one need look no further than Johnson's years as the coach of Navy.

In six years, the Midshipmen were always one of the top five teams in the country in terms of rushing yards. For four out of the six years, they were the best in the country.

Of course, Georgia Tech still has major questions on defense, not to mention playing in arguably the most competitive ACC since the conference expanded in 2004.

Nonetheless, they'll put yards up, regardless of who's lining up in the backfield.

Oklahoma's Defense

In Oklahoma's first game last year, their Heisman-hopeful quarterback, Sam Bradford, went down. It also seemed that with his injury, the Sooners' season sank.

In a season that began with National Title hopes, the Sooners eventually finished 8-5, losing almost every game they played against decent competition.

Moving into 2010, they have unexpected experience on offense and particularly in the quarterback position.

However, their defense only has five players returning, thus leaving Sooners' fans to wonder if they have what it takes to compete for the Big 12 title and more.

If previous seasons are any indication, the answer would be "yes."

In the last seven years, the Sooners have been one of the top two scoring defenses in the Big 12 every year but one—2005.

Furthermore, they have let up more than 20 points per game only twice: 2005 and 2008.

I don't know if the Sooners' offense can fully bounce back from their worst season in four years. I also don't know if the defense will be quite good enough to beat Texas and Nebraska.

However, the defense will be good.

Iowa's Tight Ends

When compared with the questions facing other teams, Iowa's questions at tight end seem somewhat minuscule.

However, anybody that knows anything about the way the Iowa offense functions, knows that tight ends play a huge part of it.

The Hawkeyes use their tight ends similar to the way pro teams use them. They need their ends to be extremely versatile.

They have to run routes and catch the ball as well as a big receiver. They also need to be able to block as well as a small offensive lineman.

On top of this, Iowa lines its tight end in the traditional three-point stance on the line, but also upright, in the slot, and in the backfield as an H-back.

Finally, the Hawks regularly use multiple two- and three-tight end sets to the point that the second tight end is virtually a starter.

The tight end often creates mismatches, and allows the Hawks to run the same personnel out of different formations.

Last season, as the Hawks had two quality tight ends, they occasionally sent one into the slot and cleared the backfield.

In effect, the defense had their run personnel on the field against a passing formation.

In 2009, Tony Moeaki started. He made 30 receptions for 380 yards, which was good enough to earn him first team All-Big Ten recognition on the coaches' team. He was also drafted in the third round of the NFL draft by the Kansas City Chiefs.

He probably could have garnered All American consideration, as well as gotten drafted in the first two rounds. However, because his career and his senior season were wracked with injuries, teams were skeptical.

In 2010, senior Allen Reisner is slotted to start. The question is can he match Moeaki's production? Also, will Iowa find a suitable second end?

If the Hawkeyes' history is any indication, Reisner might not be quite as good as Moeaki, but he will be solid. In fact, he should be solid enough to hear his name called in the 2011 NFL draft.

This would be consistent with every Iowa starting tight end under Kirk Ferentz. Not all of them have won the Mackey Award or been All-Americans like 2000-2002's starting tight end, Dallas Clark. Not all of them have been All-Big Ten like Moeaki.

Nevertheless, they have all been drafted.

In his three years on campus, Reisner has 27 receptions for 374 yards and two touchdowns. I wouldn't be surprised if he surpassed those totals this season.

As for the second string tight end, junior Brad Herman seems to have a tenuous hold on it. If he doesn't grab the spot, I'd be surprised if somebody else doesn't.

BYU's Quarterback and Passing Game

BYU is a school famous for quarterbacks. Over the years, the likes of Jim McMahon, Steve Young, Robbie Bosco, Ty Detmer, and Steve Sarkisian have been under center in Provo.

Most recently, Max Hall has just wrapped up a stellar playing career for the Cougars. During his time, he terrorized opposing secondaries to the tune of 11,365 yards. He also had a cumulative quarterback rating of 151.7.

However, he has moved on, and BYU fans are left to wonder if their new signal caller will be able to carry on the proud Cougar quarterbacking tradition.

If recent history is any indication, it seems likely that he will.

During coach Bronco Mendenhall's five years at the helm of BYU, he has worked with two starting quarterbacks: Hall and John Beck.

In that time, the worst any quarterback has performed was Beck in Mendenhall's first year. In 2005, Beck completed 64.5 percent of his throws for 3,709 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. His rating was 137.55.

Not Heisman material, but if that is as bad as it gets, then that is a good sign.

It is also worth noting that BYU's offensive coordinator, Robert Anae, and their quarterback coach, Brandon Doman, have been with Mendenhall since he took the head coaching job.

In 2010, the likely candidate to take over the starting position will be either junior Riley Nelson or true freshman Jake Heaps .

Nelson brings with him dual threat ability though his passing ability seems to have a decided ceiling.

Meanwhile, Heaps was the top-ranked quarterback in the 2010 class. For him, it seems the sky is the limit.

Whoever starts might not come right out of the chute winging the ball like the BYU greats of the past. Nonetheless, it is a safe bet that given a bit of time, he will get there.

However, the question remains as to whether he will be developed enough to win early season games against Washington (coached by Sarkisian) and at Florida State.