RUNning the Spread: Should Denard Robinson Start Over Tate Forcier?

As the Michigan Wolverine football season draws closer, numerous questions are up in the air. Everything about the team seems to be a complete mystery, right down to who will be taking snaps behind center. 

Michigan’s roster is unlike any other in the country. Deep within the names on the list lie a largely young and inexperienced index with incredible amounts of talent not yet fully developed. 

Given this youth and promise, coupled with a formerly depleted roster that is just now beginning to be rebuilt, there are going to be a number of athletes vying for the opportunity to showcase their abilities. 

After two years of not living up to expectations, at Michigan more than anywhere else, nearly every spot on the team is up for grabs. 

With the poor finish to last year’s Fall, and the recently displayed development from this year’s Spring game, come Fall 2010 it looks like the most highlighted of position battles will be the one that takes place between last year’s starting quarterback, Tate Forcier, and this year’s contender, Denard Robinson. 

But what makes Michigan’s quarterback battle unique is that the position won’t necessarily go to the best positional player.  

Forcier is clearly the better quarterback. He has displayed a better ability to read defenses, look off defenders, and thread the needle, whereas Robinson, on the other hand, showed a lack of these elements for success in his performances last year. 

In his debut seasons, Robinson’s passing record was riddled with unnecessary (in the case of the Iowa game), and costly interceptions caused by a lack of the most basic ability to read defenses on the college level. 

But ah, what a difference a Spring can make. 

At this year’s Spring practice, Robinson showed great promise and development in his ability to throw the ball. What remains to be determined is whether or not his abilities can be attributed to the cultivation of his potential or the depletion of a Michigan defense. 

But in the case of Rich Rodriguez’s spread offense, Robinson doesn’t necessarily need to display the ability to pass as well as Forcier in order to win the position.  

He just needs to display the ability to pass in general.

Because more than anything, Rodriguez needs a quarterback who can run the ball. 

Rodriguez’s offense is predicated on the run more than it is the pass. Although the multiple receivers on the field provide for more holes within the defense's coverage, if there is no running threat with the ball in his hands to begin with, the offense's ability to pick up yards immediately becomes limited. 

When it comes to the battle between Forcier and Robinson, there may be a bigger gap and difference in Robinson's versus Forcier's ability to run than there is in Forcier's versus Robinson's ability to pass. 

And there lies the issue. 

Let's get one thing straight: although mobile, Forcier is not a running quarterback.  He has the ability to evade tacklers and pick up a few yards when the play breaks down, but when it comes to running the zone read option—the staple of Rodriguez’s offense—he doesn’t cut it. 

In 2009, due to his passing ability Forcier was considered more of a dual threat than Robinson and therefore had more opportunities to confuse the defense with his abilities to throw and run the ball.  Nonetheless, when it came time to use his legs he only averaged two yards per carry. 

Robinson on the other hand averaged 5.1. What makes this number even more remarkable is the fact that Robinson was largely one dimensional in 2009, and any time he was on the field the opposing defense was usually set to defend the run. 

What does this mean to Rodriguez’s offense? 

When you look at Rodriguez’s history as a coach and offensive coordinator, you see just how important the run is to his success. 

As a head coach, Rich Rodriguez’s overall record when his team runs 60% of the time or less is 11-24.*  

His record when they run the ball 61% or more: 57-18.*

If you go on to include his time as an offensive coordinator: out of the six seasons he has run the ball 60% of the time or less, only twice has he finished above the .500 mark. 

In 2008, the Wolverines ran the ball 58% of the time.  You would think because they obtained a more mobile quarterback in Forcier the following year, that percentage would grow markedly—but it didn’t. 

In 2009, the Wolverines only averaged a run 2% more of the time.  The lack of increase in the teams' running showcases the fact that Forcier is a pass first, run second quarterback.

Perhaps in Urban Meyer’s version of the spread he would have incredible success, but in Rodriguez’s version things will have to change if the Wolverines plan to succeed.

Before the 2009 season, the difference in abilities between Foricer and Robinson was not a compromise. If you were take Focier's ability to pass, add it to his ability to run, do the same for Robinson, and put them on a scale that measured what the team needed to succeed, Forcier's talent would weigh exponentially more than Robinson's.  

That all changed after this year’s Spring Game when Robinson displayed improvement, not by steps and inches but by leaps and bounds.  

In Rodriguez's offense, the correlative relationship between running and passing has to be thought of not just in terms of athletic talent, but in terms of impact. The quarterback's legs have much more volume and impact than does his arm.

In this particular case, Robinson only needs to display some semblance of an arm to win the job, whereas in order to make up the difference in such an impact Forcier would need to complete the same leaps and bounds in his running ability as Robinson did in his passing. 

As of the beginning of last year, Forcier came in running a 4.55 forty yard dash and Robinson completed a 4.48 forty yard dash, although some believe Denard is much faster than that, considering how he ran a 60 meters in 6.81 seconds earlier this year. 

For Forcier, that is not good news for an ability you allegedly can't coach. 

At a minimum, the two players will likely share the field 50/50, depending on the team they're playing. For example, if the opposing team has a better run defense than pass defense, it is likely Forcier will see the field more, and vice-versa for Denard. 

There is also the outside chance that maybe Michigan very well could prove the old cliche, "if you have two quarterbacks then you don't have any", wrong.  

If both can play at a high level and become interchangeable without disrupting the rhythm of the offense or outcome of the game, it would bode well for the Wolverines later on in the season if both of their starting quarterbacks were well rested and not as bent with wear and tear. 

Come kickoff this season though, if Robinson can play in the games this fall like he did in this year’s spring practice, the pendulum between these two quarterbacks may have just swung in the Florida phenom's direction.  

Perhaps more importantly, if Michigan plans on reaching any level of success this year, they not only have to run the ball more, but they have to have a quarterback who can do so. 

*These statistics do not include Rodriguez's time as head coach of Winston-Salem or Glenville State as I was unable to obtain copies of those records.