2010 Not Make Or Break: Michigan Wolverines Should Stick With Rich Rodriguez

It seems as though every article I read, every prediction I see, and every chance a commentator gets, they all mention that 2010 is a make or break season for Rich Rodriguez.  They say the upcoming season is not just a matter of wins and losses, but a matter of fired or retained.  

People refer to the coach's stay in Ann Arbor as the "Rodriguez experiment", as though Michigan is similar to Frankenstein with the monster it created. 

It's blatantly obvious the coach's stay hasn't been what we've all anticipated.

Originally, we expected the growing pains of installing a new program to be similar to outgrowing an old pair of shoes, wherein one could just go to the store, find the right fit, and after a little "breaking in", all would be well.  

Lately, we've all realized the new program is more like outgrowing your teeth than a pair of shoes, and instead of a brand new pair of sneakers, our mouths have been clamped down, cemented, and painfully rearranged against their will by a new pair of braces. 

For those feeling the pain of rearrangement, the most important thing to keep reminding yourself is, no matter how painful those braces are, they're for the better.  

They may hurt, and look ugly, and get you made fun of, but they're for the better. 

For those fans who want shoes instead, I tell you this: You can buy shoes all you want, but as time goes on and you buy pair after pair, sooner or later you'll realize that all you have is a closet full of wasted money and a messed up smile. 

Those braces are for the better. 

As painful as they are, not only will they make you happy in the end, but they will make you unashamed to show the world that happiness through a gleaming smile. 

Those braces are for the better. 

And I'll remind you why. 

If Rodriguez were fired every time he had a bad season throughout his career, he would have a total of four years head coaching.  But he doesn't.  He's been coaching for more than two decades now, at a very high level, and there is a good reason why. 

In this whole debacle and debate that has began as to whether or not Rodriguez should keep his job, perhaps it is best not to look at what Rodriguez has done since his arrival in Michigan, but rather to look at why he landed here in the first place. 

Let us trace back our steps to our original starting point, and remind ourselves why we chose the path we did. 

In the turmoil that has been the past three years, fans, writers, and even players, have all been "seeing the forest for the trees", or rather, "seeing the losses for the tenure".  

Many have lamented the fact that Michigan didn't seal the deal with Les Miles, or fearing that we chose the wrong spread offense in Rodriguez and should have gone with Brian Kelly. 

Do not lament, and do not fear.

Like Kelly, before landing at Michigan, Rodriguez had a proved track record of winning everywhere he went. 

But, unlike Kelly, he also had the reputation of being arguably the foremost pioneer in the spread offense. 

Two time national championship winning coach, Urban Meyer, in a 2008 sports illustrated article investigating the recent rise of the spread offense in college football, attributed the new package to none other than Rodriguez himself: "Penn State, Texas, West Virginia, Ohio State, they all run a spread offense...Ohio state, you can call it whatever you want to call it, but that's a spread offense...You can see that kind of taking over.  It has been that way for a while.  Rich Rodriguez started it."

Although the offense had been invented many years back, it never made its way to popular use in either the high school, collegiate, or professional setting.  

Rodriguez changed all of that. 

In 1990, as one of the nation's youngest coaches at Glenville State, Rodriguez decided 'for kicks' to run a two minute drill for an entire game.  As he stated in that same article: "I figured, why not?  There were 500 people in the stands, and half of them were my relatives."

The coach realized immediately the benefits of the offense, and in the following years he had phenomenal success with it.  In his first year at Glenville State, Rodriguez went 1-7.  By his fourth year, the team had improved to 10-3, landing him a job opportunity as offensive coordinator at Tulane.  

While at Tulane, the new offense struggled at first, and the players didn't seem to able to grasp it.  The experience was so disheartening for Rodriguez that after spring practice he almost gave up on it completely.  Until, head coach Tommy Bowden encouraged him to stay with it, citing the fact that the players were only steps and inches away from clicking with the system.  

Bowden turned out to be right, and after implementing more practice with the new program, Tulane and Rodriguez began seeing the results.  

The previous year to Rodriguez' arrival at Tulane, the team went 2-9.  In his first season they went 7-4, giving the football program a record better than .500 for the first time in eighteen years.  The second season there they finished 12-0 and ranked #7 in the country. 

With wins came new opportunities and coach Bowden took that opportunity in the form of the head coaching job at Clemson. 

Rodriguez went with him.  

The year before his arrival, Clemson was 3-8.  After their first year under the new offensive coordinator, they were 6-6.  By the second year they were 9-3, and in two years the offense had set 69 new school records. 

Following that success, Rodriguez headed to his Alma Mater of West Virginia to take his first head coaching job since Glenville State.  He took a West Virginia team from 3-8 in his first year to 9-4 by his second.  By his seventh season they were a game away from going to the national championship. 

It's no wonder Michigan went after him above everybody else.  He is not only the tutor of the nation's most successful coaches who run the spread offense, but he's also proved he can be just as, if not more, successful as them. 

When it comes to Michigan, it is not a matter of if Rodriguez will win, but when.  He has proved he can do it at every level of the game.  He's proved more than Brian Kelly (who he's beat on the field), or Chip Kelly (who learned his offensive scheme from Rodriguez), or Chris Petersen (who also learned his scheme from Rodriguez), and don't forget that Rodriguez is the mentor behind Urban Meyer (who, again, also learned his scheme from Rodriguez).  

Why go out and get a student when you already have the master?

There are many who aren't willing to wait for when, who demand results now.  

For those who support Rodriguez in the face of the adversity he's up against, the main argument for the current results of his Wolverine tenure is a lack of his type of player.

They say Rodriguez needs more talent on the roster to win in what is becoming an incredibly competitive Big Ten. 

The argument from the other side, those who want the current coach out of Ann Arbor, is that the talent is already there, as he pulled in four top twenty recruiting classes since his arrival, two of which were top ten. 

But when you take a closer look, those recruiting classes don't shine as bright.  

Like historic former UM coach Bo Schembechler, who coined the phrase "Those Who Stay Will Be Champions" after dozens of players deserted the team upon his arrival, Rodriguez has faced the same issue in players leaving. 

The recruiting classes that Rodriguez has pulled in become much less impressive, and no doubt out of their top ten national rank, when you account for all the players who have left.  

If you add up the star ratings of all the players have left Michigan since the new coach's arrival, Rodriguez' teams immediately become mediocre at best.  For example, in 2007, Rodriguez signed two 5 star recruits and five 4 stars.  But, later on one of the five stars, and three four stars ended up leaving.  

If you add up all of the talent that left in terms of stars for that year, you get a total of thirty one stars worth of talent to leave.

In 2008, when Rivals.com ranked Michigan's recruiting class as the tenth best in the country, Rodriguez lost thirty stars worth of talent over the course of the year.  Add those two years together and you get a ridiculous amount of top level players going elsewhere.     

With all of this talent leaving the program, it's no wonder Rodriguez has had more trouble at Michigan than was originally expected.  That's not to say more shouldn't be expected in the future, but it does put things in a greater perspective. 

When it comes to predicting how the Wolverines will fare in 2010, it is a complete mystery.  They have a very young secondary and are lacking in some crucial areas of need.  At the same time, Rodriguez has proven time and time again that you shouldn't predict his next season based on the performance of his last.  

Regardless, Rich Rodriguez will continue to win in college football.  It is just a matter of determining whether or not you want to be around and part of that winning when he does. 

Does 2010 put Rodriguez on the hot seat?  Without a doubt. 

Should he be coaching for his job? 

Absolutely not. 

Mark my words: there is not a coach in college football that Michigan could land who is better than Rich Rodriguez. 

As fans head into the 2010 season, don't just look at the results, but also consider the reasons.

The here and now is painful, but the end will be joyous.   

Rodriguez will win again. 

Those braces are for the better.