With the Dust Settling in the Big 12, What Happens to the Other Texas Tech?

The Big 12 has reprimanded Tommy Tuberville ( http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/football/ncaa/07/03/tuberville.reprimand.ap/index.html ) for saying publicly what any thinking college football fan has discussed: that the disparity between Big 12 schools in revenue from the conference's TV deals guarantees new resentment that will lead to more fracturing.

After making itself the centerpiece in a deal with the Pac-10 that would have killed the Big 12, Texas balked when Texas A&M made it clear that Aggies wanted no part of the Left Coast and would go to the SEC instead. To keep the Longhorns and thus save the Big 12, Dan Beebe made most league members peons in comparison to Texas, OU, and A&M.

Though only Missouri may have the power to translate its resentment into action, you can bet your last penny that Tommy Tuberville's assessment is afoot, and there is already a few teams in Big 12 towns other than Lubbock that are hot under the collar.

How long the Big 12 lasts depends on when another BCS league comes calling. It is a given that Missouri would leap at an offer from either the Big Ten or the SEC. And the Big 12, lacking its second most populous state, would die rather quickly.

As comments by the new Texas Tech coach opened this article, it is only appropriate that its focus be on what Texas Tech should be doing and what the SEC could do vis-a-vis Texas Tech.

If Texas Tech assumes that Texas will save the league, Tech is a fool. Texas is not North Carolina or Virginia; Texas will not have the slightest concern for any long time conference mate nor any other school in its state if it can get what it wants. The University of Texas would sell its grandma to get richer.

Similarly, Texas Tech has to know that the only reason the Pac-10 was offering it a spot was to get Texas and A&M. Next time, because A&M will not be involved, Tech will not get a Pac-10 invite. That means that Texas Tech needs to be planning for a different future now.

Tommy Tuberville is a well respected SEC man, having been a coach at both Ole Miss and Auburn. If Texas Tech wants to make a play to tie its tail to A&M in an attempt to get into the SEC, it chose a new football coach well. 

If the SEC wants the state of Texas as badly as it should, it will be ready to offer TTU alongside A&M in order to get in on the fan base in the Lone Star State.

Yes, OU would be much better school for the SEC than Texas Tech, but the fact is that A&M and any other TX school would make the SEC the top conference in TX. No matter what Texas might do, the simple fact of the having Texas teams in the SEC would make it probably the top league in the state.

And over time, that would hurt the Texas Longhorns.

Lawyers learn early to never ask questions of witnesses unless they already know the answer. Similarly, conferences cannot make threats regarding expansion unless they are fully prepared to act on them.

The Big Ten was bluffing when it wanted Notre Dame to believe that it would blow up the Big East, which the Big Ten hoped would force Notre Dame to join. That it failed to back up its warnings means that the next time the Big Ten tries, Notre Dame may barely cough into a closed fist, its eyes drowsy.

If the SEC wishes to make its big move to land A&M, it cannot threaten, for example, to take Missouri unless it fully intends to take Missouri. Clearly the SEC was not able to use OU to woo A&M, because OU preferred to be a Longhorn lapdog. That means that now the SEC could focus on Texas Tech.

But before any serious flirtation begins, the SEC must decide if it is willing to go to 16 teams. If it is, it can take flirting with Texas Tech much farther than it could if it refuses to become larger than 14 members. 

Texas Tech people are not fools, and they would understand an offer that declares: your invitation is contingent upon A&M accepting as well. The MWC would be happy to add TTU with no strings attached, but no BCS AQ conference will.

If you sense that the Big 12 is probably a "Dead Man Walking," and you are in the league but are not Texas, OU, or A&M, it is in your best interests to be working behind the scenes to make realignment work for you. For Texas Tech, that means either remaining attached to Texas or attaching to Texas A&M. 

If I were leading Texas Tech, I would prefer the latter.

If you are the SEC, securing A&M and thus planting the SEC in Texas would be worth far more to you than adding Arkansas and South Carolina combined could ever be.

I would bet that Tommy Tuberville has made each of those points, both to Texas Tech people and to SEC power brokers.