CFG Mock Draft: June 17th: Analysis
Todd, Joe, and Kevin break down the June 17th CFG Mock Draft.
For round-by-round mock draft selections, go here .
For team-by-team mock draft selections, go here .
Joe Arpasi's Analysis
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
My Draft Strategy :
I drew a draft position at the end of the first round. With this position, many of the stud fantasy QBs will be gone by my first selection. Also, there will be stud fantasy RBs available with both the first and second round selections.
So the first part of my draft strategy was to wait on drafting QBs, and focus on locking down two stud RBs at the beginning of the draft. After the first selections, my focus was on getting the best WR available in the third round, and then focus on a QB in the fourth round. After selecting a QB, I wanted to draft for the best players available while shooting for value. While drafting for value, I knew I needed to lock down a good QB2 and QB3 that could be used in a rotation.
Once I had established a couple of back-ups, I wanted to focus on high flyer candidates instead of “Steady Eddie” types. With the drop off in talent by the back third of the draft, its best to go after several high flyers that could pay off big.
My Favorite Pick:
QB Cam Newton, Auburn (12.02) - The draft format was for two starting QBs. Since I waited on drafting QBs, I realized that I needed to draft several good backups. Newton was my fourth QB selected, but has the ability to be the second-best on my squad by season’s end. Grabbing such a high flyer in the 12th round with this draft strategy was easily the best move made.
Second Thoughts:
TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame (07.11) - I am not a fan of the TE class this year. There isn’t that much of production gap between the top returning TEs and the top TE sleepers. Because the gap is so small and the sleepers can be had much later in the draft, I prefer to skip on the returning studs.
By the time I was making my seventh/eighth round selections “on the turn,” the RBs and WRs I was targeting were guys that I could get in the next turn of selections. So I decided to go after the top selections at QB and TE for the seventh/eighth round turn. Although there was reasoning behind taking Rudolph, I’m still not happy with the move, purely based on my approach on drafting TEs this year.
“The One That Got Away” :
By the time I was looking at options for my fourth RB, I felt like going after a good flyer was the best approach. Louisiana Tech’s Lennon Creer was the man I had targeted, and I felt like I could wait on him. I was all ready to jump on Creer in the 13th round, when Creer was snatched up just five picks before my selection. With Creer off the board, and the other potential flyer being higher risk, I was forced to go with more predictable RB options that have lower fantasy ceilings.
Five Best Value Picks:
06.06 Dwayne Harris (WR, East Carolina) - Harris will be a legitimate top 10 fantasy WR for 2010. Being able to grab a top 10 guy as the 21st WR off the board is a great value selection.
15.07 Austin Arnaud (QB, Iowa State) - Arnaud will be overlooked in most drafts by players that Arnaud will outproduce. Picking up Arnaud in the 15th round was the best steal of the draft. He doesn’t grab as many headlines as many of the sleeper names, but he will be a more consistent fantasy option from Week 1-13.
14.10 Wes Kemp (WR, Missouri) - Jerrel Jackson looks to be the top receiver, but Kemp will provide a good deep threat on the outside. Don’t be surprised if Kemp outproduces expectations due to his ability to command passes in the redzone.
08.05 Josh Nesbitt (QB, Georgia Tech) - Nesbitt was passed over for more trendy names on the hopes of a high risk/high reward payoff. Nesbitt will be much more reliable week to week than the trendy players. With the loss of fullback Jonathan Dwyer, expect Nesbitt to rack up more rushing TDs than he totaled in 2009.
12.12 Andy Dalton (QB, TCU) - Dalton is another overlooked returning player. He has a bunch of returning talent around him. He will make a great bench player that you can count on being there later in your draft.
Five Head Scratchers:
01.09 Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)- Mallet will be a solid fantasy option, but a first round selection is just too high. Mallet was the fifth QB off the board. Do I really need to say 2010’s Jevan Snead?
05.10 Steven Sheffield & 10.03 Taylor Potts (QBs, Texas Tech) - Both QBs were neck-and-neck in the spring while competing for the starting job. Right when there started to be a little separation, both got hurt and left us waiting for news emerging from the middle of fall camp to get more insight on who will win the job.
Using 20 percent of your top 10 picks on this pair just seems like too high a price to pay for such an uncertain situation, especially when you realize that you are using that 20 percent on only one guy that can play at a time in your fantasy line-up.
06.05 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State) - Maybe it was a case of being unprepared, but it’s almost impossible to justify Martin in the sixth round. Boise State employs a two back situation, so split carries are unavoidable. Although Martin finished 2009 as the No. 2 RB, it was only because D.J. Harper was hurt early in the season. With Harper healthy again, Martin looks to be the third back in a two back situation.
09.09 Scott Tolzien (QB, Wisconsin) - Tolzien doesn’t get enough touchdown opportunities to be a quality fantasy QB. Even in real deep BCS-only leagues, drafting Tolzien is a real stretch. This could be another case of not having enough time for preparation.
06.03 Lance Kendricks (TE, Wisconsin) - Selecting Kendricks as your TE is a quality fantasy selection. But using a sixth-round pick is rather high, considering there isn’t that much value difference between Kendricks and the top sleeper TEs. Add in the fact that this was the same team that used 20 percent of their top 10 picks on the Texas Tech QB combo, and it makes it difficult to justify the high prices spent on three of the top 10 picks for that team.
Kevin Mount's Analysis
Draft Strategy :
Picking in the No. 4 slot seemed like the perfect spot to grab the No. 1 RB on the board, Jacquizz Rodgers, with the big three QB’s (Case Keenum, Colin Kaepernick, and Dwight Dasher) predictably filling up the first three selections. With the top QB’s and RB’s off the board, I decided it would be best to grab Michael Floyd and have a top three WR.
From this point on, it was basically a question of getting a solid No. 2 RB, which I think was accomplished with LaMichael James, and getting two weekly starters at the QB position, which came in the form of Jake Locker and Landry Jones. Overall, I think the team that I drafted is solid across the board and could compete for the playoffs in many leagues.
My Favorite Pick:
QB Landry Jones @ 06.09 - He could be in store for a huge year with the weapons around him and to get him as my No. 2 QB at this point was very satisfying.
Second Thoughts:
WR Alex Torres @ 05.04 - While I don’t really think it was a terrible pick, it might appear a bit early for Torres. I do think he will catch around 90 balls this year so I liked him in a PPR draft.
“The One That Got Away”:
This actually happened twice, as I was all set to grab Randall Cobb at 5.04, only to see him go one pick in front of me, so I had to settle for Alex Torres. Then at 9.04, it appeared that Ronald Johnson would fall right in my lap, but it was not to be as he went the pick before mine.
Five Best Value Picks:
05.03 Randall Cobb (WR, Kentucky) - I think he is in for a huge year and was a great value in the fifth round.
07.09 Jermaine Kearse (WR, Washington) - He looks poised to have a breakout season and could end up being a low-end No. 1 WR
08.07 Alexander Robinson (RB, Iowa State) - He is a very productive back who could account for 1500 total yards and 10-15 scores–not bad for the eighth round.
12.02 Cameron Newton (QB, Auburn) - Newton should fit perfectly in the Auburn offense with his running and throwing abilities. He could be a steal here in a potentially high-powered offense.
13.01 Isiah Pead (RB, Cincinnati) - Pead could really blossom in the Bearcats potent offense. It’s always nice to get a RB with 1000 yard capability in the 13th round of any draft.
Five Head Scratchers:
06.12 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)- While Luck has the build of a prototype pro quarterback, he plays in a conservative and balanced offense that probably will not lead to big numbers. I don’t believe him to be a weekly fantasy starter in 2010.
08.01 Lyle Leong (WR, Texas Tech) - I was very surprised to see Leong come off the board here, especially with plenty of quality wide outs left to choose from. While he did get Detron Lewis three round later, the eighth round still seems way too early to take Leong.
09.08 Cody Johnson (RB, Texas) - This was the most shocking pick in the entire draft in my opinion. The Texas RB situation is a muddled mess, to put it nicely, and Johnson will probably only serve as the short yardage/goal line back. There were plenty of quality fantasy backs still on the board at this point that should be much more productive this season.
09.09 Scott Tolzien (QB, Wisconsin) - He probably will not get drafted in many BCS-only leagues, let alone All-120 leagues. He is a good QB on the field, but that doesn’t equate to fantasy success. Wisconsin just runs the ball too much for a QB to post gaudy numbers.
12.05 Trey Revell (QB, La Monroe) - He is not even the starter as we head into the fall, with Kolton Browning passing him on the depth chart this spring.
Todd DeVries' Analysis
My Draft Strategy:
Drafting from the six-hole, I made the decision beforehand to go with the ever-popular RB-RB strategy in the first two rounds. Buckram and Taua fit the bill. After that, I was intending to swoop up some WR’s with my next couple of picks and wait on a QB, but when Collaros fell to me in round three, I couldn’t resist the temptation. Our early projections have the Cincy Bearcat shaping up as a top shelf fantasy QB.
The same thing happened when Kinne was hanging out there in the fifth round–just too good to pass up.
So my “wait on my QB strategy” kind of fizzled out as I was stocked at the position just five rounds in. Other than that, I drafted for value and was rewarded with a nice crop of RBs. My WR’s aren’t going to blow anyone away, but they offer some promise. I would consider them the weakness of my squad. At TE, there were plenty of solid options in a late rounds and I was happy to land Rob Housler.
My Favorite Pick:
8.07 Alexander Robinson (RB, Iowa State) – The always under-appreciated A-Rob seemed like a good value pick as the No. 32 RB off the board. He’ll make a great RB4 on my roster, especially in this PPR format.
Second Thoughts:
9.06 Jereme Brooks (WR, Utah) – For reasons unknown, I’ve been slow to warm up to Brooks as a true fantasy factor, but I took the leap of faith here. I’d feel better if he were my WR4, instead of a WR3.
“The One That Got Away”:
6.06 Dwayne Harris (WR, East Carolina) – I nearly selected Harris in the fifth round and he almost slipped all the way down to me in the sixth. Almost. Bevo snagged him one pick prior. Doh!
Five Best Value Picks:
05.11 Aldrick Robinson (WR, SMU) – It was surprising to see Aldrick go off the board as the 21st WR selected. I thought he’d go higher.
06.06 Dwayne Harris (WR, East Carolina) – This guy proved last year that he was a fantasy force. With a new pass-heavy offense on campus, he should continue to thrive.
06.10 Diondre Borel (QB, Utah State) – Borel is one of those guys who will fall into the middle rounds simply because people aren’t familiar with his talents. The fear of the unknown, so to speak. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on him as a strong QB2. Like the unknown Joe Webb last year, he has top 10 potential.
08.03 Terrelle Pryor (QB, Ohio State) – Considering TP went third OVERALL in the Athlon Sports Mock Draft, I thought it was worth noting that he went in the eighth round here (19th QB selected). Nice value.
16.08 Dayne Crist (QB, Notre Dame) – It was refreshing to see that Crist wasn’t over-drafted here, as ND QB’s typically are, but for him to fall this far was shocking.
Five Head Scratchers:
01.09 Ryan Mallet (QB, Arkansas) – Too high for a QB who has to run the SEC gauntlet. If this were a BCS-only league, it would be another story. But in this format, I wouldn’t pull the trigger on Mallett this early.
04.01 Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh) – I like Baldwin a lot, but not more than some others that were selected after him (Damaris Johnson, Eric Page, Austin Pettis, Armon Binns, Randall Cobb, etc.). Baldwin could’ve been had a few rounds later.
08.01 Lyle Leong (WR, Texas Tech) –Leong was taken 47 picks ahead of teammate Detron Lewis, who is widely considered to be the better fantasy option of the two.
Alabama WR Julio Jones was not selected! Hallelujah! After two years of disappointing fantasy results, it appears that folks are finally catching on to the fact that Julio just isn’t a great option in All-120 formats. Kudos to our drafters.
Ditto for Tulsa RB Charles Clay. After getting burned last year, our mockers said “to hell with the Tulsa RB headache”. I was surprised that Clay was not taken, as I do think he is worth a gamble in the late rounds. You just never know….
In Case You Missed It:
For those of you who have been out of the loop on spring ball news, here is a quick rundown of some mock-relevant players news:
TE Rob Housler (Florida Atlantic) and RB MiQuale Lewis (Ball State) are back for a final year of eligibility. FYI – neither are listed in the MDC database at the moment.
RB Bryce Brown (Tennessee) and RB Harvey Unga (BYU) are no longer on their respective squads.
RB Robert Turbin (Utah State) suffered a serious knee injury and will miss significant time this fall, perhaps the entire season.
RB Charles Sims (Houston) has been suspended for the 2010 season for off-the-field reasons (likely grades).
RB Brynn Harvey (UCF) suffered a knee injury and is expected to miss the first month of the season.
RB Robert Bolden (Purdue) suffered a knee injury and will miss the entire 2010 season.
QB Trey Revell (La-Monroe) has lost his starting job to Kolton Browning.
Joe Arpasi is the co-owner of CollegeFootballGeek.com , your premier resource for college fantasy football information. Check us out.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
