Reading the Crystal Ball and USC's Troubling Future: A Tale of Misery

Larry Burton (Panama City Beach, Fla.) From an Alabama fan who lived through NCAA sanctions similar to this, I can tell you the future ahead is nothing short of bleak.

No amount of pep talks or hard work can keep the scholarship numbers from causing you to fall from conference king to also ran status. You just can't win without those great scholarship players.

That's not opinion, that's fact.

So what will happen and when?

Let's run down some concrete numbers, and some that may or may not be true, but most likely will be.

For some of the numbers, I want to give credit to a friend, Jamie Watts, for supplying me with both the idea for this story and for coming up with the numbers.

First of all, the coming season will not be as affected as those to come. You have your players in place right now.

Alabama was fortunate to have a solid class that bled Crimson, not one player chose to leave or transfer. Though, like USC, they were given the chance. I suspect USC will have at least five players leave the program due to these restrictions, and that number could go as high as 12, for now, let's assume you keep them all.

This coming year, you should win the same number of games you would have won whether you were penalized or not. So this year will give your fans a false sense of security that the sanctions aren't going to hurt so bad, but in fact, they haven't affected you at all.

Not yet.

But it does hurt recruiting, and because of that you lose several of the top names you were banking on. And now your talent pool of the future has already started to shrink.

Right now you should have 85 players on scholarship now on campus, with 20 of those as seniors. In January 2011 you lose those 20 guys, which takes you down to 65.

In February you can sign 15 up to 75 total of scholarship players. In other words, you can only sign 10 in this class—if you have less than 85 now you can sign a few more, but regardless, you will be limited to 75 total for the fall of 2011.

Let's assume all of those guys make it in you will play the 2011 season with 75 scholarship players. You are now playing with 10 less scholarship athletes. Are you that much better than your competition?

There are 33 juniors on your roster right now. In January 2012 you lose those 33 guys, which takes you down to 42. You will have spring practice with 42 players on scholarship.

In February you can sign 15 up to 75 total. In other words, you can only sign 15 in the 2012 class. Let's assume all of those guys make it in—you will play the 2012 season with 57 scholarship players.

Now I'm not trying to be a downer here, but if you lost to Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington with 85 scholarship athletes, and barely eeked out wins against Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon State, and Arizona State, can you imagine not having a 4-8 season with 28 less scholarship athletes?

You won't have to worry about a bowl ban, you wouldn't have made one anyway.

Now because your program looks to suck so badly, you continue to have top recruits turn their nose up at you, only making the recovery that much harder and that much longer to climb out of.

There are 21 sophomores on your roster. In January 2013 you lose those 21 guys, which takes you down to 36.

You will have spring practice with 36 players on scholarship. Sounding kind of bleak here doesn't it?

In February you can sign 15 up to 75 total. In other words you can only sign 15 in the 2012 class. Let's assume all of those guys make it in—you will play the 2013 season with 51 scholarship players or 34 less scholarship players than your rivals.

By now you are so thin at most positions that any injury to a starter is crucial. Let's say you have the average of three injured players, one transfer, and one for failed grades and the like, and one dismissed for violation of team rules.

Now just assuming still that no one in your program walks out this season, you could be playing the 2013 season with perhaps 20 less scholarship athletes than your competitors. And this is with just the normal casualty rate.

The good news is in 2014 you can sign 25, and that gets you back to around 70 scholarship players—you are still about 15 great athletes short of your competitors.

In 2015 with another 25—you will be close to 80. But since you've sucked for so many years, you're not signing the ones you were accustomed to getting just five years ago.

Perhaps in 2016 you will be back close to your 85 man limits on scholarships, but many of them were the so so's that took you while you were sucking so bad, and it will take three more years to work them out of your system and get back to having top tier talent.

Plus all your senior talent will be extremely thin as will your junior talent.

You won't be back to competitive full strength until around 2018.

USC fans really have no clue just how devastating and long lasting these sanctions are. They came as close to the death penalty as they could get and still survive.

Given the outright lies and arrogance of the entire program, the NCAA wanted to make an example of the Trojans and they did.

Despite people saying that they understand how the sanctions affect the team, the fans will cry out for someone to pay for the Trojans misery and losing seasons, so Lane Kiffin came to USC only to pay the price.

He leaves the Trojans like he came, a coach with a losing record, and the Trojans search for the next great savior.

But the good news in this, and there is a silver lining—USC is a storied program with a strong fan base and secure recruiting ground, and they will come back just as Alabama has done.

You can keep a great team down, but you can't do it forever.

From an Alabama fan who lived through our years of all of this, I can give you good USC fans the following advice:

1. Tell your opponents to get all their licks in now, win while they can, get all their jokes out of their system while you can. Because it won't last forever and you'll be back soon and with a long memory.

2. Continue to support your team with attendance. If you give up on them they will give up on you. They need to know you're in it with them for the long haul.

3. Don't expect overnight miracles. This is going to affect for at least eight years, be ready for that, and go ahead and resign yourself to that fact. You may have some good years in all of that, but nothing like the ones you are used to.

4. Don't be bitter. You made your bed, now lie in it. You can't undo past mistakes. Show class at all times and encourage your team to do the same. The teams you're playing understand what you're going through even if the fans don't.

5. When you do return to the top, and you will, be gracious. Acknowledge that every school has problems and problem people, let you team's play do the talking, and maybe show a little mercy on teams that could have beaten you worse when you were down.

6. Forget and forgive those who laughed at you and said, "I told you." You are not cheaters anymore, by the time you come out of this, Lane Kiffin and everyone who had a hand in these problems will be gone including Mike Garrett. You'll know that your program made mistakes, and you also know that they learned from it.

Do this and you'll be worthy of the legendary status you have. You will be USC again, you will be feared again, and you will be champions again.

True champions aren't always those who always win, but those who pick themselves up from a loss and come out better for it. That is the USC I know, that is the reason I am proud to have you as an NCAA brother. Though I root for teams far away from yours, our histories are intertwined and our future is sure to meet again, and I will be proud so share the field with you on that day.