Conference Wars: Who Survives the Battle of Attrition?

Many stories come along in sports and a number of people brush them off.  They just let it do what it wants and they take in the change.

But as an avid sports fanatic, it’s impossible for me to ignore what is happening during this college football off-season.

What is going on, if you may not have heard, is the Pacific 10 Conference and Big Ten Conference want to expand.   The biggest on-field reason, in my eyes, is to get more credibility.  As the Southeastern Conference, Big 12, and Atlantic Coast Conference all have divisions and a championship game, the extra championship week hurts Pac-10 and Big Ten chances of staying up in the polls after that week.  The extra game could also bump out a worthy team from participating in the BCS, especially when an unranked underdog steals the automatic bid.

These two tradition power conferences want to keep up with the competition.  And the first blows have been made to do so.

While the Big Ten is keeping quiet on the matters, the Pac-10 has no secret to keep.  They want to invite six Big 12 schools to join them to make a super conference.  The targets: Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and either Baylor or Colorado.  Colorado fits geographically for the Pac-10, but as the Texas schools and legislation did in 1994, they will refuse to join the conference if Baylor, the runt of the Texas school litter, comes along.  This bargaining chip will most likely bring Baylor along if an agreement is made.

So, let’s say this happens.  The Big 12 South joins the Pac-10.  Here’s the look of the new Pac-10, with hypothetical divisions:

                                                            Pac-10

                                    Division 1                                  Division 2

                                    California                                   Arizona

                                    Oregon                                      Arizona St.      

                                    Oregon St.                                Texas

                                    UCLA                                       Texas A&M

                                    Stanford                                   Texas Tech

                                    USC                                           Baylor

                                    Washington                             Oklahoma

                                    Washington St.                       Oklahoma St.

That hurts if you’re the Big 12.  But with the great Mountain West right next door, the Big 12 can look to snag up a few of those…. Wait, getting a memo here.  Aw, too bad for the Big 12.  Nebraska and Missouri no longer want to be in a messy victim conference, so they accept an offer to join the Big Ten.

The Big Ten, finally off the wavering eleven school alignment, become the predators for geographically friendly schools.  But what about the four Big 12 schools remaining?  It’s not possible to expand by that much is it?

Apparently not.  The Mountain West jumps at the chance to expand to become a divisional conference by adding three teams.  No wonder they didn’t care about Boise State right now.  They could expand to 12 by waiting on other schools to make their move.  Kansas, Kansas State and Colorado happily join the new power conference on the block.  Here’s how it looks with hypothetical divisions:

                                                             MWC

                                    Division 1                                  Division 2

                                    Kansas                                     Utah

                                    Kansas State                            BYU

                                    TCU                                        Colorado

                                    Air Force                                 Colorado State

                                    New Mexico                            Wyoming

                                    San Diego State                        UNLV

Who needs Boise State?  That’s a great looking conference there!  BCS, here comes the Mountain West!

But what about lonely little Iowa State, all the way in Ames, Iowa?  Who will they attract?  Well, the Big Ten is expanding for one reason other than credibility: big markets.  With thirteen teams, and still looking for a couple big markets to fill the three voids, ISU gets shoved aside.

So that solves that, right?  Wrong!  The Big Ten needs three more schools, friends!  Rutgers gets the first offer, thanks to that New York City area right next door.  They proudly accept.  The other two offers are also to Big East Conference schools.  Pittsburgh slides in to grab the Big Ten another sizable market in Western Pennsylvania.  And up-and-comer Cincinnati gets the last invite, as that gets geographic favor over northern New York’s Syracuse.  The new Big Ten looks like this, again with hypothetical divisions:

                                                            Big Ten

                                    Division 1                                  Division 2

                                    Iowa                                        Michigan

                                    Nebraska                                 Michigan State

                                    Missouri                                   Indiana

                                    Minnesota                                Ohio State

                                    Illinois                                       Cincinnati

                                    Wisconsin                                 Rutgers

                                    Northwestern                           Penn State

                                    Purdue                                     Pittsburgh

Oh, that looks like it’ll make a fun season.  But now the Big East is left in shambles.  Could they expand?  Of course they could, but to where?  Maybe the Western Athletic Conference?  As great as that sounds, I’m not sure the five schools left would like picking up their stuff and relocating to California to make that work.

While they’re in New York thinking about that, the Atlantic Coast Conference notices they have a good chance to become their own 16 team super conference.  So they do.  They make offers to Syracuse, Connecticut, West Virginia, and South Florida.  Of course, those four don’t want left out of the fun.  So they hop on board.  Here’s the new ACC, with hypothetical divisions:

                                                               ACC

                                    Division 1                                  Division 2

                                    Syracuse                                   Duke

                                    Boston College                          North Carolina

                                    Connecticut                              North Carolina State

                                    West Virginia                            Clemson

                                    Virginia                                     Georgia Tech

                                    Virginia Tech                            Florida State

                                    Wake Forest                            Miami

                                    Maryland                                  South Florida

Another fun one!  So now Louisville is the Big East’s Iowa State.  Nobody wants it.  So do you expect Louisville and Iowa State to become independents?  Forget about it!  What school will want to schedule a weak independent?  Let alone twelve schools willing to throw away a non-conference game.  No chance in heck!  And ISU and Louisville want to be in a decent conference so if they get lucky enough to become bowl eligible, the conference affiliation will help, not hurt.  

But who could grab them?  The Mid-American Conference?  As much as the MAC would like to expand, and possibly have a BCS buster better than Ball State, ISU and Louisville don’t want to fall off the map that far.  The growing program of Iowa State and tradition of Louisville need good teams to face.  Well, my friends, look to good ol’ Conference-USA!  With a geographic span always expanding, the C-USA would love an upper Midwest school to join the fray, along with another Southeastern school.

This would expand the C-USA to 14 teams.  You think they’re done?  Possibly.  In my eyes, if they scrounge together these two, two more teams could really help the C-USA take the Big East’s spot as a BCS conference. 

The first school to mind seems again like a natural fit: Army.  This move brings the Cadets back into the conference they left in 2004.  Not a terrible choice for the C-USA.  The usually-lackluster teams for the Cadets still garner many fans throughout the nation, much in part to their bravery and courage for their country.   The West Point Academy being located near New York City doesn’t hurt the C-USA at all, either.

With one spot still open, there’s not much left to choose from.  Neither Notre Dame nor Navy is willing to waive the tradition of being an independent.

So, they look to the Sun Belt Conference, the minor league of the Division I Bowl Subdivision.  This isn’t a crack at the Sun Belt’s track record of uncompetitive play.  This is more of the idea that new D-I FBS schools enter through this conference before moving up in the world, like the WAC, MAC, or C-USA. 

Well, there are a few programs in this conference that are coming of age.  But Troy is chosen over North Texas, Middle Tennessee State and Florida Atlantic.  They will garner fans in the Deep South, mainly in Alabama.   UNT is in a state that the C-USA has well covered with four other schools, MTSU is beaten by Memphis for the Tennessee crowd, and FAU is in a state with Central Florida, which has a sizable fan base.

Looking for the Sun Belt’s rebuttal?  It’s coming in the form of South Alabama, scheduled to join the conference in football for 2013.  That will increase the number of teams playing football back to ten, good enough for them. 

Let’s take a look at our new super conference, and challenger for the BCS, Conference-USA.  Divisions are hypothetical:

                                                    Conference-USA

                                    Division 1                                  Division 2

                                    UTEP                                       Marshall

                                    Rice                                         East Carolina

                                    Houston                                 Central Florida

                                    SMU                                       Memphis

                                    Iowa State                              Army

                                    Louisville                               Troy

                                    Tulsa                                      UAB

                                    Tulane                                    Southern Mississippi

Not bad, not bad.  While this is going on, the SEC, known for the last half decade as the best college football conference in the nation, is laughing.  The contraption to catch up to the original super conference, this one of only 12 ultra competitive teams, has killed off two BCS conferences, and brought two new ones to the forefront.  The SEC sticks to the plan.  Here’s the unchanged conference:

                                                                 SEC

                                    Eastern Division                         Western Division

                                    Florida                                      Alabama

                                    Georgia                                    Arkansas

                                    Kentucky                                Auburn

                                    South Carolina                        LSU

                                    Tennessee                               Ole Miss

                                    Vanderbilt                                Mississippi State

The new BCS conferences after the war:

• Pacific-10; expanding from 10 to 16 teams
• Big Ten; expanding from 11 to 16 teams
• Atlantic Coast Conference; expanding from 12 to 16 teams
• Southeastern Conference; standing pat
• Mountain West Conference; expanding from 9 to 12 teams
• Conference-USA; expanding from 12 to 16 teams

The casualties are two once proud conferences, both of whom experiencing tremendous success in recent years.  This success, however, may have lead to their demise.  Here they are:

• Big 12, losing 6 teams to Pac-10, 3 to MWC, 2 to Big Ten, 1 to C-USA
• Big East, losing 3 teams to Big Ten, 4 to ACC, 1 to C-USA

Only one conference was wounded in battle, which was the Sun Belt, as they surrendered one school to the C-USA, the vultures of all the weak.  The WAC and MAC should be careful.  They may be dropped, along with the Sun Belt, back to the FCS if they don’t watch themselves.

The real losers are the two remaining independents, Notre Dame and Navy.  Their continued loyalty to tradition by staying independent lost them a serious chance to stay afloat in the college football ocean.  With six huge conferences, Notre Dame and Navy are now forced to stay independent.  The only way they can get in the mix of new scheduling rules and conference championships is by coming in a package deal with two other schools, likely Boise State and Nevada, into the Mountain West, should they decide to expand to 16 teams.  But, all the conference hoopla is what these two schools tried to avoid in the first place anyways.

Should the preceding scenario come about, the BCS is here to stay, and possibly for a long time.  The only other possible way to determine a champion is to take the six conference championship winners, add the two best schools in the country that aren’t there already, and have an eight team, single elimination tournament.  Most college fans would love this idea, but the added month of the schedule and elimination of money-making traditional BCS bowl games will be the most obvious arguments against this system.

Regardless of post-season format, the college football landscape is about to change drastically.  And if you care about college, or football, or college football, get ready for a crazy ride.