Why Mountain West's Gang of Five Will Join Big 12 After Pac-10 Expansion

The reports about six teams leaving the Big 12 for the Pac-10 are flying all over the place.

Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Colorado, and Texas Tech are all rumoured to join Arizona and Arizona State in a new Pac-16 "Southwest League." 

The crown jewel of that movement, Texas, is actually in a position where it would prefer to stay in the Big 12. The competition is familiar, and the financial windfall is extensive.

The Pac-10 has engineered this new Southwest League to include many of Texas' nearby rivals to sweeten the deal.

Right now the Big 12 has put the onus not on Texas, but on Nebraska and Missouri. These two schools have been chomping at the bit to potentially join the Big Ten. Unless they express unwavering commitment to the Big 12, then the Southwest schools will take that as free license to leave.

The Big Leftovers  

Six teams will remain in the Big 12. Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor will be left for dead. But the conference, with six legacy members (and a needed eight total members) will continue to function and will maintain a BCS presence at least until the next bowl cycle begins for the 2014 season.

Missouri, Nebraska, and even Kansas have aspirations of joining the Big Ten. But the invitations won't come simultaneously.

While the Pac-10 could expand by the end of this month and begin operating as the Pac-16 for the 2011 season, Big Ten expansion to 16 teams will wait until 2013 at the earliest. The reason for this is the 27-month exit clause each Big East university has agreed to. As of now, that forbids further conference movement for the next three football seasons.

So unless the SEC wants to pick up one of these teams, they will be stuck in a rump conference.

The Mountain West  

Current projections place the Mountain West on track to grab the seventh automatic bid to the BCS for the 2012 and 2013 seasons. The Mountain West even declined offering Boise State a spot in their conference because they are confident in their current position. A decimated Big 12 should make that move even easier, right?

Wrong.

That seventh automatic bid will go to the new Southwest League.

The Pac-10 has been exploring options about how to stage a championship game. Los Angeles would be a prime location, but wouldn't it be biased? Perhaps it would be at the home stadium of the higher ranked team, but that would make sponsorship less lucrative.

With two leagues, the Pacific League and the Southwest League, the Pac-16 will lock up two automatic BCS berths. The extra revenue from that second, full bid and likely a third, at-large bid will create much more money ($10-15M more) than a conference championship game would.

The Big 12 (Frankenstein style)

So, the Mountain West, after back-to-back stellar years, will once again be on the outside looking in.

Here exists the Golden Opportunity.

The Big 12 (now six) is in a precarious position. A few more teams are on the verge of departing. The league needs to maintain six schools that have played together for five years in order to fulfill their role as an NCAA conference. Adding six Mountain West teams will preserve the conference though possible future defections by Missouri or Nebraska.

For the first few years, Arlington is slated to host the championship game. The Fiesta Bowl will host the Big 12 champion, at least until the new bowl cycle begins in the 2014 season. Perhaps the Fiesta Bowl will choose to host both the Big 12 champion and the Southwest League champion. Now that game would get high ratings.

Beyond the Big Ten  

The two divisions would be essentially the Old vs. New, Central vs. Mountain, East vs. West.

And if two more Big 12 teams should depart?

The beauty of this plan is that the current Mountain West is essentially shedding its inferior members. TCU and the Gang of Five (BYU, Utah, Air Force, Colorado State, and Wyoming) would definitely stick together, moving to the Big 12. But the geographic outliers (particularly those in the Pacific Time Zone) and football doormats of San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico would be left to join the WAC.

If Missouri and Nebraska left a few years later, then perhaps Houston and either New Mexico or Boise State could be brought in. Essentially, the core membership of the MWC is given free range to re-pick the western teams it shares a conference with.

Conclusion

Right now we are all waiting. Some point to an ultimatum that expires at the end of this week or next. Some say that we will remain in limbo until April of next year.

But this is THE contingency plan for the Big 12 and Mountain West. Some have said that Nebraska and two other former Big 12 members should disband and join the Mountain West, opening up a second automatic bid. But getting the second of those available bids is as much a gamble as the Mountain West currently faces.

Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, etc. will not leave the guaranteed bid the Big 12 brings in order to "chance it" with the Mountain West. Neither will adding two Conference USA teams (Houston and ?) likely keep those schools in an official BCS conference beyond 2013.

While we wait for what has been dubbed "expansion-geddon," count on this plan to be of primary consideration.