Texas, Notre Dame, and Boise State Hold Keys to Expansion

As many of you may have heard by now, Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott was just recently given full authority to expand and, according to ESPN.com, the Pac-10 is looking to expand by as many as six teams by raiding the Big 12, most particularly the Big 12 South.

The rumored teams are Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado, as discussed on the 5/29 podcast "Big-10/ Pac -10 expansion" .  This proposed strike by the Pac-10 on the Big 12 could not only all but destroy the Big 12 as we know it, it could also cause a tsunami-size domino effect that will change FBS football as we know it forever.

From a geographical point of view, this makes sense.  What the Pac-10 could do is have a two-division format with the Arizona schools (Arizona and Arizona State) being in the same division with Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado, while the other division would resemble the original Pac-8.

From a money point of view, this would be a huge coup for the Pac-10 to get Texas. While the other schools would all be a good addition, the Longhorns are the mega-sized domino in this whole conference carousel.

Per ESPN.com, Texas is being courted by both the Big 10 and Pac-10.  If money is the major issue, then consider that the Big 10 would be able to offer Texas the most money, with their annual television contract topping out at $242.5 million.  This is followed by the SEC at $205 million. 

Meanwhile, the Big 12's contract is only a measly $78 million and half of all Big 12 revenue is divided evenly (the other half is based on appearances and all Big 12 schools receive between $7 - 11 million annually).

The Pac-10's television contract is valued at around $58 million, with each school receiving between $8-10 million annually, and is also set to expire in 2011.

So, in actual terms, the Pac-10's raiding of the Big 12 looks more like a business merger than a straight out expansion and, with word of the Pac-10 starting its own network, the new Pac-16 could reach the levels of both the SEC and Big Ten and easily become the most powerful FBS conference.

With Nebraska and Mizzou rumored to be heading to the Big 10, the Big 10 must also decide on whether or not to wait out Notre Dame again, just like they did in 1999 when the Irish declined the Big 10's offer.

However, the Irish might be a bit more receptive due to the prospect of the new Pac-16 conference and the loss of USC on their schedule.

The Irish and Big 10 have a history that goes back to the 1900's when Notre Dame was passed up for the University of Chicago, thus causing the Irish to become and remain the most famous independent in college sports.

But with the seismic change on the horizon, the Irish may be all but forced to join the Big 10 out of necessity, history, and their meager $15 million dollar contract with NBC.  If they join the soon to be revamped Big 10 then they could stand to make upwards of $35 million a year.

History and geography work in Notre Dame's favor in the fact that they already play Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue and would be able to revive dormant rivalries with Ohio State, Penn State, and possibly Nebraska.

Their location in South Bend gives them proximity to Ann Arbor, West Lafayette, Bloomington, Columbus, East Lansing, and Chicago, which would cut down on possible logistical issues.

If the Big 10 does decide to indeed expand, then Notre Dame is the perfect choice based on the above points.  However, the other rumored schools who would make a great fit would still be Mizzou, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Syracuse.

The last piece could possibly be the Boise State Broncos, who were supposed to receive an invite from the Mountain West Conference today.  However, that never happened as the MWC decided to play a careful game of wait-and-see with the other two major conferences in the Pac-10 and Big 10.  It will only be a matter of time before the Broncos will either be playing in the Mountain West or even the Pac-10, even though the latter option is very remote.

Lost in the conference carousel is what is going to happen to the ACC and Big East. Will they merge to form their own Eastern conference?  What about the remnants of the former Big 12? Or even the SEC?

A college football fan can only hope for so much excitement before the season starts.

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