Conference Expansion Chicken, Or "Which Domino Must Fall First"

All the long-debated conference expansion and realignment discussions finally took on some substantive form this weekend.

The moves by Pac 10 commissioner and 2010 Executive of the Year Larry Scott have finally given us some idea of how college football might look in five years time.

Despite the fact we can now see how the dominoes would fall, we don’t yet know for sure if they will.

The answer to that all-important question still rests with the people who started the expansion ball rolling last year: Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney and as well with Notre Dame, the school who was the Big Ten’s biggest and most realistic target from the beginning.

As I see it, the trouble with the Big Ten’s preferred expansion is this: Notre Dame has no interest in being the 12th team in the Big Ten but they would be the 14th or the 16th.

Honestly, if Notre Dame wanted to be the twelfth Big Ten team it would have happened long ago.

I see the Big Ten’s dream scenario from the beginning to have been to add Notre Dame and no others, because the Irish will easily grow the revenue pie more than enough to make it worthwhile for the current members to dilute their 1/11 share down to a 1/12. But the Irish (who would probably about break even on the deal) saw no reason to give up their prized independence, complete scheduling flexibility and ability to pack the slate with extra home games for something that’s a financial wash.

Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick has basically made it clear he is content to sit on the sidelines unless things are radically altered, as well the Irish should be.

That calculation changes if there is a consolidation of power that will make marquee opponents more difficult to schedule—who’s going to want to fight through what will probably be a nine or ten game brutal league schedule and then make a trip to South Bend, too? This makes the teams that come through those stronger conferences look attractive compared to an independent who has been forced to play a slate of patsies.

Which brought us to something of an impasse.

For Notre Dame to seriously consider joining the Big Ten they had to be convinced a lot of other dominoes would fall; thus far there had been a lot of innuendo and rumor but no reason to believe there would really be a big shakeup that would make Big Ten membership a necessity.

This all changed this past weekend when the Big Ten got a huge assist from their Rose Bowl brethren out west.

The Pac 10’s move to invite the larger Texas schools, the Oklahoma schools and Colorado shows the Irish and the rest of the world exactly how the endgame will play out once realignment starts in motion.

For the Big Ten to get Notre Dame the Irish must believe the superconference era is imminent.

The Pac 10’s expansion push shows that, yes, it could be but needs a little help to get started.

The Big Ten can provide that.

If the Big Ten wants the Irish it’s going to involve both expanding their conference to 14 or 16 teams and simultaneously destroying the Big 12 so the Pac 10 follows suit and expands as well.

At this point, the surest way Jim Delaney can hit his home run and finally see that Big Ten logo sticker slapped on Notre Dame’s golden helmets is to offer Big Ten membership to them, Missouri, Nebraska, Rutgers and either Syracuse or Connecticut, and they need to do it very soon.

That move will cause an explosion with the Big 12, expand the Pac 10 and could start the SEC looking to see if any ACC teams would like to upgrade their conference affiliation.

Once Missouri and Nebraska have signed on, the Irish will be backed into a corner and should be clamoring for a spot in the Big Ten.

Delaney will have his prize.

This isn’t totally without risk though.

The Irish still have to say yes after steadfastly ignoring Big Ten overture after Big Ten overture.

Should Notre Dame opt to brave the superconference era on their own, it could leave Delaney holding the bag on an expanded and improved conference but one whose growth didn’t warrant the diluted league revenue pool.

Extending invitations to the non-Notre Dame schools will result in a few near-instantaneous acceptances that the Big Ten would be stuck with even if the Irish balk.

The willingness of the Pac 10 to bring in the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State seems to suggest it is worthwhile to a conference to take on some teams with a somewhat lower profile if it means also nabbing a whale like Texas.

Missouri and Rutgers might not move the needle all that much nationally, but if taking them is what is required to get Notre Dame to come aboard, then the Big Ten ought to make the move if they’re confident it will force the Irish to shake off all those years of tradition.

This weekend has left the dominoes set up for the Big Ten to get exactly what they’ve always wanted.

All that remains is for them to push.