College Football 101: Dan Wernery goes inside the head of Jim Delaney

On Tuesday, Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney spoke at length about expansion from the current 11 teams. Its clear Delaney has a plan for expansion but right now, he is keeping all interested parties in the dark about his master plan. The press conference was mostly fluff, but he did address some key points. I am not a professionally trained interpreter or mind reader, but here is what Jim Delaney is really thinking:

“Ladies and gentleman of the media, I am going to sit here and pretend the Big Ten is still exploring plans for expansion, but the truth is we have a plan in place.  The most desirable schools for the Big Ten are Notre Dame and Texas. Both schools have the academics, football tradition and nationwide fan appeal to increase the number of cable providers who will add the Big Ten Network to their basic cable package. Due to the logistics of Texas and their ties to traditional rivals with Big 12 schools, we will not spend a lot of time courting Texas. The door is always open for Texas if they are interested in joining the Big Ten. The number one target is Notre Dame and we have a comprehensive plan to make that happen.

The Big Ten will claim it “respects” Notre Dame’s interest to stay Independent in football. The truth is we realize the only way for Notre Dame to keep their current independence is the additional conference revenue received from the Big East in other sports. Notre Dame cannot survive as an independent in all sports. We realize the only way Notre Dame will join the Big Ten is if the Big East terminates its current arrangement. At one time, the Big East relationship with Notre Dame improved the conference bowl tie-ins. That is no longer true. After losing the Gator Bowl/Sun Bowl tie-in, the Big East has to decide if having Notre Dame as a non-football member adds value to the league. Notre Dame adds little to the conference as a basketball school.

The Big Ten has no interest in Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Connecticut or Syracuse. We realize cities such as New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Washington DC focus primarily on professional sports. Notre Dame is the only team with a presence in these large television markets due to its strong alumni base on the East Coast. By circulating rumors about a 16 team super conference and a desire to establish a presence in the East Coast TV markets, we feel the Big East will eventually panic and give Notre Dame an ultimatum: Join the conference as a football member or find a new league. The Big East is still reeling from 2003 when the ACC lured Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College.  I expect the Big East to be proactive and not wait until December when we make our expansion plans known to the public.

Speaking of a 16 team super conference, the odds are slim of this happening. Before we talk about creating a 16 team league, the BCS must add the Cotton Bowl and take away the two team per conference restriction before a 16 team league discussion begins.

If Notre Dame and Texas decide to join the Big Ten, then it makes sense to pursue a 16 team league. For a 16 team league to work, we need at least two more programs with a rich football tradition. If Texas leaves the Big 12, Oklahoma and Nebraska are two likely candidates. Missouri is desirable only because of the St Louis and Kansas City TV markets. The only way Missouri joins the Big Ten is if we need a 14^th or 16^th team to create an even number of teams. In summary, it would take at least 4 powerhouse football programs such as Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska to consider a 16 team league.

It is true the Big Ten is still undecided about a conference championship game if the league expands to only 12. In a 12 team league, we may increase the number of overall games to 13 for all league members with 9 conference games per team. There is more revenue with 6 additional conference games than 1 neutral site championship game.  In a 14 or 16 team scenario, a conference championship game would be necessary. Either way the conference will make lots of money. Unlike the ACC Championship Game, a Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis or Detroit will be a “cash cow”.

Here is my advice to members of the media and college football fans: Don’t take everything I say literally. Remember when I said it was a done deal the NCAA Basketball Tournament was expanding to 96 teams. That was a negotiating ploy by the NCAA to increase its TV revenue and have every game televised.

The Big Ten is a well run organization and will not expand unless each school increases its overall revenue. College Sports are a business and my goal is the interest of the Big Ten alone. If we add only Notre Dame, Pac-10 expansion will be the driving force that changes the conference landscape of college football. Chances are Pac-10 expansion would force BYU and Utah out of the Mountain West and destroy any chance the Mountain West has of a BCS automatic bid in 2014. Chances are if the mind games with Notre Dame fail, Big Ten expansion will not happen anytime soon."

Dan Wernery is Chief Scout for NFLDraft101.com.  He can be reached at [e-mail].