Big Ten Conference and Notre Dame: Locked in a Stalemate

The Big Ten Conference doesn't want to expand without Notre Dame—Notre Dame doesn't want to join a conference in football.  It looks like a stalemate to me!

The expansion talk started about a year ago when Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany announced his conference was exploring the possibility of expanding.

Since that time, rumors have infected the Internet with every scenario imaginable, and theoretical dominoes have started to fall.  Yesterday, reports surfaced that Florida State has been in talks with the SEC.

The Big Ten Will Not Expand Without Notre Dame

Don't kid yourself, nobody wants to leave their house without their wallet and the Big Ten doesn't want to expand without Notre Dame.  The thought of expanding without them seems self-defeating.  It seems like the classic case of cutting one's nose off to spite their face.

It had been mentioned that the Big Ten wanted to stage their own conference championship game and needed a 12th team.  It was Joe Paterno who made a case for a conference championship by claiming the Big Ten had too much time off before BCS games.

Soon after this, it was verified that it wasn't just a 12th team the Big Ten was considering, but they were looking into expanding to 14 or 16 teams—possibly the first "Super Conference."

They hired a Chicago research firm to advise them on the feasibility of expansion and they received a green light—Expand, baby, expand!

All this going on while the Big Ten powers to be know, without Notre Dame expansion is highly doubtful.

With Notre Dame in the Big Ten conference as a football member, the television ratings would soar.  The revenue would be huge for everyone.  But it's unlikely to happen without the Irish!

Notre Dame's Concerns

Notre Dame wants to remain a football independent, and they remind everyone they want to honor their long-standing rivalries, and bring Irish football to every part of the country.  These ideals would be restricted if they had to play a conference schedule.

It's pretty well-understood that the Irish, with the 14th largest endowment in the country and a comparatively small student enrollment, aren't focusing on the financial benefits that joining a conference could bring. 

Conference membership is something Notre Dame is not seeking.  They did have a serious flirtation with the Big Ten in 2003, but nothing matriculated.

With this said, the Irish are keeping close eyes on everything coming out of Big Ten camp because they do have some real concerns;  If the Big Ten expands to 14 or 16 teams, Notre Dame's scheduling could be disrupted. 

Because of commitments an expanded Big Ten would create, Notre Dame's long-time Big Ten opponents (Michigan, Purdue, and Michigan State) may not always have room for the Irish on their schedules.  With 116 of 120 FBS teams being members of a conference, scheduling has been getting more difficult for everyone.

I'm not saying that they won't play any Big Ten teams—they may not be able to play as many.

Though Notre Dame is in an enviable financial situation, they are also aware of the huge profits the Big Ten Network has made.  This is also a concern.

Notre Dame is also wondering if a stronger and larger Big Ten would, for lack better words, make them less "significant" or less "relevant" in the Midwest.

Another concern is the possible collapse of the Big East conference.  The Big Ten could bring in one or more teams from the Big East, and if that conference folds or restructures, it could affect Notre Dame—they're currently a member of the Big East for most of their sports besides football.

Is the Big Ten Putting on an Act?

Is the Big Ten trying to scare Notre Dame into joining?  Are they trying to present an image which leads one into believing they're serious about expansion?

Some folks think that everything the Big Ten is doing; the meetings, press releases, and possible leaks to the press, are staged.  They say it's all an act to put pressure on the Irish.

It could appear to be an act because  even after you get done adding up all the money the Big Ten Network makes, adding more teams could bring down individual team revenue.

Last year each member made $22 million in pooled money.  With 12, 14, or 16 teams, that number could markedly shrink.

The Big Ten can hire as many research firms as they want.  For every one that tells them expansion is a winner, there are just as many that say they better do their math better before taking on any newcomers.

While the Big Ten Network brought in between $200 million-$300 million in sales last year, it's not a given that the Northeast will buy it, or even watch it.

Rutgers is a team that has been high on the list of Big Ten prospects.  They were one of four teams mentioned by a Kansas City radio station as officially being offered an invite.

Rutgers represents the New York/New Jersey marketing area of which there are 18 million people.  Just because 54,000 of the same people show up at Rutgers Stadium six or seven times a year, it doesn't mean that the other 17,946,000 care about Big Ten sports.

I think Jim Delany knows this!  I think he knows that expanding to 14 or 16 teams, without that school from South Bend, is very risky.  The Big Ten athletic directors, though they probably lack Delany's foresight, openly expressed worry about "splitting the pie in more slices."

Could the Big Ten Expand to 12 Teams Without Notre Dame?

Could the Big Ten successfully expand to 12 teams without Notre Dame?   

As long as one believes a championship game would bring a reported $15 million, it seems like expansion to 12 may work.  We know that the SEC stages a very successful conference championship in Atlanta each year, but the ACC's championship game is known for empty seats.

Expansion to 12, without Notre Dame, may be a boundary that the Big Ten might not want to apply between themselves and the Irish.  It might set back their courtship. 

Most analysts feel Rutgers, from the Big East, and Nebraska and Missouri, from the Big 12 are the teams most likely to join Notre Dame as the Big Ten's leading prospects.

Rutgers, as mentioned before, is situated in the middle of the largest marketing area in the country.  Can they deliver?  One has to be skeptical.  Until we see it, it's hard to believe they can convert hardcore pro sports fans.

Nebraska, even with all the national championships and tradition, is located in a state with less than 2 million people.

Missouri, with 6 million, is likely to be the best choice but will any of these teams be a real option when the Big Ten considers taking the leap?

The Stalemate Continues

The stalemate, the courtship, whatever one wants to call it continues.  Will Notre Dame blink?  Will Jack Swarbrick place a call to Jim Delany letting him know he wants in?

Will the Big Ten make a rash decision to expand and risk going it without the Irish?

I have to say the answer to these questions is an emphatic NO!  Therefore, the stalemate continues.

We'll could see a playoff in college football before we see Big Ten expansion. We'll probably see peace in the Middle East before we see Notre Dame join a conference in football.