SEC West: Will Offense Rule in 2010?

There are already many preseason predictions speculating about the SEC and the hierarchy of power within the conference. These speculations vary widely. It is part of what makes this time of the year interesting. Here are some of the prevailing thoughts that seem to be more universal.

1. Alabama is the favorite to win the SEC in 2010.
2. Alabama will be led by offense this year.
3. Florida is the favorite to win the East once again but is no match for Alabama.
4. LSU is still offensively challenged, and this will hold them back.
5. Arkansas has emerged as an SEC West contender.
6. Auburn is a dark horse in the SEC.
7. Georgia has problems that will hold them back in 2010.
8. South Carolina is looking a lot like they have for the past several years.
9. Tennessee is a spoiler and not a contender.
10. None of the rest of the teams belong in this discussion.

With the prevailing thought being that the SEC Champion will come from the Western Division once again, it seems logical to start by taking a look there. It seems that offense is the key word for each of these teams.

It is assumed a strong Alabama offense will lead them to Atlanta. Arkansas looks to score so many points that defense doesn’t matter. The strength of the Auburn team is certainly offense at this point. LSU could be good if they only had an offense.

LSU was the only team in the West that lost a significant amount of offensive players. It is debatable if this was a good or bad development for them depending on which LSU fan you ask.

Let us take a look at the SEC Western Division on offense. With so few changes for Auburn, Arkansas, and Alabama, we can assume improvement for them in 2010. With LSU having been so bad on offense, we can assume they couldn’t get any worse—up is the only change possible.

Here are the SEC Western Contenders statistical performance in 2009 side by side.

All rankings are national unless otherwise labeled.

Statistic	Alabama	Arkansas	Auburn	LSU
Total Offense Rank	42nd	20th	16th	112th
Total Offense	403 yds. per game	427.31 yds. per game	431.77 yds. per game	304.54 yds. per game
Scoring Rank	22nd	9th	17th	76th
Avg. Score	32.07 ppg	36 ppg	33.31ppg	24.85 ppg
Rank Rushing	12th	81st	13th	90th
Avg. Rushing	215 yds. per game	131.77 yds. per game	212 yds. per game	122.77 yds. per game
Rank Passing	92nd	10th	56th	97th
Avg. Passing	187.93 yds. per game	295.54 yds. per game	219.77 yds. per game	180.31 yds. per game
Rank Pass Efficiency	34th	11th	22nd	49th
Pass Efficiency	138.5	149.77	143.55	131,87
Kick Returns Rank	33rd	25th	27th	109th
Avg. Kick Return	23.32 yds.	23.76 yds.	23.7 yds	19.15
Punt Return Rank	5th	63rd	113th	1st
Avg. Punt Return	15.05 yds.	8.47 yds.	4.46 yds.	18.85 yds.
Sacks Allowed Rank	36th	57th	45th	105th
Avg. Sacks Allowed	1.43 sacks per game	1.85 sacks per game	1.62 sacks per game	2.85 sacks per game
Rank T.O.P.	5th	95th	104th	107th
Avg. Time of Poss.	33.31 min	28.5 min.	28.04 min.	27.5 min.
Rank Red Zone	29th	1st	3rd	20th
Red Zone Percent	86%	96%	95%	88%
3rd   Down Conv.	39.18%	33.33%	40.11%	38%
First Downs Gained	20.57 per game	19.54 per game	20.46 per game	17.38 per game
Turn Overs Lost	12 total	15 total	23 total	14 total
Tackles For Loss Allowed	66 total	72 total	78 total	81 total

Fans can assume that Alabama, Arkansas, and Auburn will improve at about the same rate during the offseason. These three teams did not lose much that would hold them back on offense for 2010. LSU lost several key players on offense.

With three teams being this close on offense, we can assume that offense will not lead Alabama back to Atlanta. We can also assume that offense alone will not lead Auburn or Arkansas to Atlanta.

This leads me to the conclusion that defense will again be the deciding factor in winning the SEC Western Division. Alabama will have to be markedly better on defense than Arkansas or Auburn. Arkansas and Auburn will need enough defense to control the Alabama offense.

Let us take a look at that defenses and see exactly where they stood in 2009. Since Alabama and LSU lost the majority of their defenses in 2009, we can assume they might not be as good for 2010. Auburn and Arkansas return the majority of their defenses. We can assume they will improve some.

Defensive Statistics

Statistic	Alabama	Arkansas	Auburn	LSU
Total Defense Game	244.14 yds. allowed	401.15 yds. allowed	374.08 yds. allowed	327.62 yds. allowed
Scoring Defense	11.71 ppg	25.08 ppg	27.54 ppg	16.23 ppg
3rd Down Conversion	29.9 %	36.67%	32.81%	36.76%
Turn Overs Gained	31 total	30 total	24 total	18 total
Red Zone Defense	67%	74%	90%	80%
Sacks	32 total	28 total	28 total	21 total