The Big Ten's New Schedule

In response to a much earlier article about what the Big Ten division structure might look like with 12 teams, this is a look at the Big Ten structure with 16 teams.

*Update*

The Old Options

The most obvious option when considering a 16-team league is probably the two-division format. Teams play all or all but one of their seven division rivals and then one, two, or even three teams in the other division of eight.

The main problem with this is that even with the perfect selection of expansion teams, there is no way to create two divisions where any school will play extra-division teams a sufficient number of times. Indiana and Illinois play every year, now try telling them to play twice every eight.

The second, historical option is the creation of quads. At 12 teams, this is a legitimate structure. With 16, teams will go six years between playing most teams not in their quad.

The second issue with quads is that rivalries in the Big Ten won’t fit neatly into four-team bundles. Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin play each other every year; now, which team should end all of its rivalry series to join them in the Northwest Quad?

The Resolution

First, teams are first split into two geographic groupings: East and West. Teams on either side of the divide will still play each other at least every other year. This is called the False-Quad model.

Next, half of each grouping is put in the same division. For example: Minnesota, Wisconsin, N’western and Illinois from the West Grouping may be paired with Ohio State, Michigan, Purdue and Indiana from the East Grouping.

Then, each year the West Grouping will cycle a single team between divisions and the East Grouping will cycle a pair of teams between divisions. This mixes up the divisions and insures all teams will play each other four times on an eight year cycle.

In addition to a full, seven game division schedule (meaning: no MAC-style ties), teams will play two games against the other division, both within their geographical grouping (this totals nine conference games). This allows annual rivalries (like Michigan – Michigan State) to continue even when split on division lines.

The Groupings

This is the West Grouping:

Minnesota, Wisconsin, N’western, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa

Teams listed adjacent to each other (inc. Iowa/Minnesota) will most likely have annual rivalries (or at least play six times in an eight year cycle) with the probable additions of Iowa/Wisconsin and Missouri/Nebraska as annual rivalries.

This is the East Grouping, listed by cycling pairs (which are always in the same division):

Ohio State – Michigan, Purdue – Indiana, Penn State – Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame – Michigan State.

In the East, as in the West, there are other non-paired annual rivalries: Purdue/Notre Dame, Michigan/Notre Dame, Michigan/Michigan State, and maybe a few others at ADs' requests.

National Big Ten Involvement

The Big Ten will arrive at 16 by 2013 at the earliest. This will be in conjunction with a new round of BCS negotiations.

If the Big Ten decides to play a conference championship they will most likely lobby the other conference to be eligible for a second BCS at large bid (conferences are now capped at one).

If the Big Ten forgoes a conference championship there is a strong possibility that they will send both division champions straight to the BCS (as separate 8-team BCS conferences). The Rose Bowl participant will most likely be chosen by the Rose Bowl committee, and the two Big Ten conferences would both be eligible to send a second at-large team to the BCS (and we know those bowls love Big Ten teams).

Speculative Conference Response

When the Big Ten expands to 16, it will not be the sheer size which will coerce conferences like the SEC to expand. It will be the monetary ramifications, particularly the possibilities outlined above concerning the BCS.

My personal favorite is the SEC expanding into Texas and Oklahoma and forming two BCS conferences of their own.

The Big East will lose two members (Notre Dame is a member in all non-football sports). Filling these shoes with two schools that play FBS football will equalize their current scheduling conundrum. Memphis, Central Florida, and East Carolina are the fore-runners in my book.

Barring a potential (not inevitable) SEC expansion, The Big 12 will survive the loss of teams from the Big 12 North. Oklahoma and Texas are big enough to hold the conference together. Plus, there are teams in the Mountain West and Conference USA that are good regional fits if the conference does not like its new, nine-team setup.

ESPN First take – *Update*

I just noticed that ESPN is reporting that four schools have been extended an initial offer. These schools are Nebraska, Missouri, Rutgers, and Notre Dame.

Rutgers fills the spot of Pittsburgh in this article nicely. And, so long as the fifth and final school added is Kansas or another western school (Texas? Colorado?), the false-quad system outlined in this article is still okay to go.