Phillies MUST Trade Ibanez at Deadline

The early offensive leader for the Phillies in the 2010 season has been Jayson Werth. The Phillies 5 hitter and rightfielder has reached base safely in all 25 games to start the year, while compiling a .352 batting average, 4 Home Runs, a league-leading 13 doubles, and 18 RBI, all in only 88 AB. Werth's OBPS is 1.059 and he has played great defense in right field. While Werth's performance is nothing to worry about, his contract is.

While the bloated contract of Jaime Moyer (making 8 million dollars as a #5 pitcher) is coming off the Phillies books, the team still has another year left of Raul Ibanez (making 12 million this year) as well as scheduled upticks in pay for a lot of their players. The Phillies are going to need to take a serious look at their line-up and pitching staff to determine where they can afford to take a hit in order to keep Werth (who is only making 7 million for this season but can be expected to ask for between 12 and 17 million) on the team.

Werth is particularly valuable to the Phillies. A large part of Werth's success has been feasting on the steady diet of left-handed pitching that many teams throw at the Phillies. In a lineup that includes Utley (L), Howard (L), and Ibanez (L) as the #3, #4, and #6 hitters, having a big right-hander in the 5 spot is both good for the team and good for the hitters' stats. The Phillies depend on Werth to hit when Howard and Utley are not.

Although the loss of Moyer's contract will help, much of that money will be needed to sign a replacement pitcher. While Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, and J.A. Happ will all still be around next year, the Phillies do not have a solid starting option outside of those 4 pitchers. Drew Carpenter and Kyle Kendrick just do not have the pitches needed to successfully compete at this level. The Phillies will be forced to either re-sign Moyer at a slightly lower rate, or to look through the remaining free agents to find a suitable replacement. In the bullpen, there aren't many takers for Brad Lidge and his 12 million dollar contract, nor the $5 million being paid to Ryan Madson. The Phillies, in order to keep Werth, will likely have to take a hit somewhere else in their line-up.

For the Phillies, many parts of their lineup have to be considered untouchable. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins are either former MVPs or perennial candidates and the Phillies cannot afford to lose any of them in a trade. Other players, while not essential, represent good value and are also unlikely to be traded by the Phillies. This group includes Placido Polanco (making around $6 million), Carlos Ruiz (making less than $2 million), and Shane Victorino (making $5 million). The Phillies, if they are to make a serious effort to re-sign Werth, must keep all of these players, as a suitable replacement for any of them would end up costing the team more money in the long run.

This leaves Raul Ibanez as the last man standing in the Phillies search for a way to decrease costs. Ibanez is already 37 years old and making over $12 million to hit .225. Ibanez's production has fallen off so much that Charlie Manuel has begun starting Ben Francisco in favorable matchups. While I expect Ibanez's numbers to increase, the Phillies need him to be hitting around .265 by the all-star break in order to successfully trade him.

An Ibanez trade requires accepting the facts on the ground, very few teams want to pay Ibanez's entire salary, and even fewer want to pay for the rest of this year and all of next year. Any deal involving Ibanez is likely to include the Phillies agreeing to pay a portion of his contract. Also, whatever talent we get back in return will be minimal. Ibanez will be traded a team missing a piece, like a left-handed power hitter in their lineup, and teams that are only missing one piece don't typically want to lose anything of substance to them. The Phillies will likely receive in return either a bullpen pitcher or "prospect" destined to spend his life in the minor leagues. However, all of this depends on Ibanez increasing his numbers and creating a demand for himself in the trade market.

Here is a list of potential Ibanez suitors.

1. Seattle Mariners

Yes, the Phillies could have more dealings with the Mariners. Outside of 1st Baseman Casey Kotchman, the Mariners don't have a power left-hander in their lineup, and the addition of Ibanez would allow them to send the disappointing Langerhans down to the minors.

2. San Francisco Giants

The Giants also are devoid of a power-hitting left-hander, and left-fielder Mark DeRosa has had major struggles. The Giants have a great pitching core with Lincecum, Cain, Zito, and Sanchez, and need to have a better offense in order to capitalize on that.

This list is pretty short, but injuries and other unexpected events could add to it by the time the trade deadline comes around.